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​​Bitcoin’s price movements bring these tidings for the market The king coin for the most part of December has been oscillating around the $50K mark, firmly holding the ground. At the time of writing though, Bitcoin’s over 5% dip took the top asset under the $45,000 mark. Ergo, the larger narrative seemed to tip more towards the bearish side, giving way to the evergreen argument – “Are we in a bear market?” Is this really a bear market? The global crypto market cap after BTC’s fall saw a 6.04% decrease over the last day. It, therefore, stood at $2.12 trillion at the time of writing. There was a surge in Bitcoin liquidations on 3 December with $235 million worth of BTC short futures liquidated, and $846 million long futures liquidated. The same caused BTC’s spot price to plunge from $51,000 to $42,000. Furthermore, Open interest of BTC futures also dropped from $23 billion to $17 billion on 4 December. The most recent price fall near the $45K level, however, didn’t trigger a similar liquidation spree. Notably, the spot market seemed more affected as lower trade volumes and higher fear in the market kept investors skeptical of any moves further. That being said, the BTC Bull Market Weekly Support Bands can act as good indicators of the market condition presenting the macro trend by looking at the 20-week exponential moving average (20W EMA) and the 21-week simple moving average (21W SMA). In prior bull market cycles, BTC has reverted down to the 20W EMA and 21W SMA before bouncing and resuming a bull market uptrend. However, a close below both moving averages is indicative of a bear market. BTC’s current price is around $46,950 while the 20W EMA sits at $51,984 and the 21W SMA sits at $52,154. Earlier this year BTC’s move below both bands suggested BTC is in a bear market as seen, at the time of writing. There is, however, a possibility that price picks up and BTC climbs back above said bands to enter back into a bullish uptrend. A move above the 20W EMA would imply a +10.7% rally from the current price, while a climb to 21W SMA equates to a +11.1% increase from current levels. What has changed? While there have been comparisons of the current BTC trajectory to the May price dip, from an on-chain perspective. The key difference between now and May is that now strong hands are buying from weak hands while in May strong hands became weak hands. Further, looking at BTC’s +1 year HODL wave approximately 54.6% of all coins in circulation haven’t moved in +1 year. Even though currently the indicator is down 8.8% points from a local top of 63.4% set in September 2020. However, there are signs of the indicator rallying which can be suggestive of BTC’s supercycle if the uptrend continued. That being said, BTC’s 14M RSI after the fall is now into the ‘neutral’ territory. The same hit intra month high in April 2013, November 2013, and December 2017, setting the price as a market cycle top. This time, however, the same has not been observed. Well, for now, a fall to lower levels can be expected in the near future. With volatility taking over the game for BTC, it’ll be best to stay cautious and not make any new moves.

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​​With the market in chaos, is the Bitcoin bottom really behind us? Over the last week, several attempts have been made by the king coin to establish itself above $50,000. However, all efforts seemed to have gone in vain. Its price action has been restricted around $49,000, with the $47,900-level acting as a lower short-term support. In many ways, Bitcoin’s trajectory presents a classic case of chaos and confusion in the market. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $49,112, having seen daily gains of 1.41%. However, before BTC’s mid-short-term price trajectory can be analyzed, it is crucial to look at what happened last week. Perplexing metrics Over the last week, when many expected the king coin to head for recovery, there was a noticeable rise in network activity. Bitcoin saw a close to 3% decrease in transactions and new addresses week-over-week. However, there was a near 4% jump in active addresses and an almost 5% hike in active supply. The aforementioned trends were suggestive of heightened network demand from existing market participants, rather than new players. Furthermore, as BTC’s market cap fell by almost 1% to drop below $1 trillion, there was a minor -0.1% pullback in BTC’s hash rate. The network saw a whopping 16% jump in hash power to near-record levels of 181.77 EH/s. Bitcoin’s next difficulty adjustment is scheduled for 12 December and is expected to be a positive change of roughly +7.8%. That being said, BTC wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin were down by 1.36% over the week, potentially indicating profit-taking among larger players. With the price action looking stagnant, this seemed to suggest confusion among market participants. Price bottom reached? Bitcoin’s trader sentiment had dropped into bearish territory over the last couple of days as people became increasingly skeptical of a return to mid-November price levels. However, historically, negative sentiments are an early sign of a BTC price bottom. So, could the $48K range be this cycle’s price bottom? First of all, when the Open Interest and funding rate were analyzed, the latter was negative but close to 0, at press time. Bitcoin Futures Open Interest and funding rates have been negative on several major exchanges. And generally, after such negative levels are hit, we can see an increase in price. Here, it must also be pointed out that the redeemed Stablecoin index hit an ATH. This could mean that whales are cashing out ahead of the market’s volatility, in response to the 16 December FOMC announcement. Seems like going forward, BTC’s price could face uncertainties owing to the wider market’s dynamics. For now, however, BTC’s price will need to establish itself above $50k before any recovery is in place.

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​​Crypto Regulation Should Be Global, Not National - IMF Directors The rapid growth of crypto assets, associated products and services, and the interlinkages with the regulated financial system are intensifying the need for global crypto regulation that should be comprehensive, consistent and coordinated by the world’s regulators, according to a recent paper released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the paper published on the website of the Washington-based international financial institution: “Policymakers struggle to monitor risks from this evolving sector, in which many activities are unregulated. In fact, we think these financial stability risks could soon become systemic in some countries.” The analysis was authored by Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Dong He, Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department of the IMF, and Aditya Narain, Deputy Director of the MCM Department. The three authors argued that uncoordinated regulatory measures could facilitate potentially destabilizing capital flows across the world. They stated that, “While the nearly [USD] 2.5 trillion market capitalization indicates significant economic value of the underlying technological innovations such as the blockchain, it might also reflect froth in an environment of stretched valuations. Indeed, early reactions to the Omicron variant [of the COVID-19 virus] included a significant crypto selloff.” The authors justify the need for global crypto regulation with their observation that cryptocurrencies’ “cross-sector and cross-border remit limits the effectiveness of national approaches.” Additionally, they said that supervision and enforcement are made more difficult by the fact that many crypto service providers operate across borders- The proposed global regulatory framework should ensure a level playing field along the activity and risk spectrum, said the post, and include the following three elements: crypto asset service providers that perform critical functions should be licensed or authorized to carry out their activities; requirements should be tailored to the main use cases of crypto assets and stablecoins, which means that services and products for investments need to have requirements that are similar to those of securities brokers and dealers, enforced by securities regulators; authorities should define clear requirements on regulated financial institutions in relation to their exposure to and engagement with cryptocurrencies. The paper concluded that there is "an urgent need for cross-border collaboration and cooperation to address the technological, legal, regulatory, and supervisory challenges," and adding that it is a daunting task to set up "a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated regulatory approach to crypto." “But if we start now, we can achieve the policy goal of maintaining financial stability while benefiting from the benefits that the underlying technological innovations bring,” the authors stated.

​​Visa Doubles Down on Its Crypto Bet, Launches Crypto Consulting Service Multinational financial services giant Visa is pushing deeper into the booming crypto market, launching crypto advisory services to help clients understand various segments of the crypto industry. In an announcement, the payment network acknowledged that "digital currencies are taking greater hold in the popular consciousness," which creates the need for trustable advisory services that can help those eager to adopt crypto first understand the ecosystem. The firm also noted that it aims to provide advisory services with regard to non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and for central banks exploring digital currencies, as well as to assist clients with management of backend operations. Per Uma Wilson, executive vice president at UMB Bank, a regional US lender that uses Visa's consulting services, “We came to Visa to learn more about digital currency and the use cases that are most relevant for various business lines as we serve our customers in the years ahead.” The move comes at a time when global crypto adoption is at record levels and investor demand for crypto is overwhelming, according to a recent study by Visa. The survey, conducted among 6,000 financial decision makers across eight markets including the US and the UK, discovered that crypto awareness is "almost universal at 94%." "Crypto is moving from a niche asset class for a small community of investors to a broader market increasingly accessible for mainstream and new adopters," the report said. Furthermore, the survey revealed that nearly 33% of adults familiar with the industry already own or use digital assets, with key motives including wealth-building and faith in crypto as the future of money. Among current crypto owners, more than 80% said they are interested in crypto-linked cards that enable them to spend their crypto holdings at retailers, while 84% expressed interest in cards that offer cashback vouchers in the form of digital assets. Notably, 18% of participants said they are willing to ditch their current bank for one that offers crypto-related products. This percentage was even higher in emerging markets, where 24% made such claim. “Crypto represents a technological shift for money movement and digital ownership,” said Terry Angelos, Global Head of Visa's Data & Commerce Solutions team. “As consumers change their approach to investing, where they bank, and their views on the future of money, every financial institution will need a crypto strategy.” Back in July, Visa reported that users have processed more than USD 1bn worth of transactions using the company's crypto-linked cards in the first six months of the year. Meanwhile, Visa's top competitor Mastercard has been aggressively expanding its crypto offerings as well. Just recently, the company revealed that it aims to launch crypto cards in the Asia Pacific. In late October, Mastercard also inked a deal with crypto platform Bakkt to enable its vast network of banks and merchants integrate digital assets into their operations.

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​​Here’s how Terra’s tokenomics and interoperability pumped LUNA After the market fell significantly recently, most altcoins tasted dust. At press time, however, most still seemed to be struggling to recover as Bitcoin traded at $49,289. Terra (LUNA), on the contrary, performed against the tide by not only quickly recovering from 3 December’s fall, but by also hitting a new all-time high amid larger market sell-offs. Terra was trading at $76, at the time of writing, highlighting 35.97% daily and 65.95% weekly gains as the alt made its way in the top ten cryptos by market cap. The altcoin was ranked 9th with a total market capitalization of $29.46 billion, ahead of Polkadot and Dogecoin by market cap. So, what has fueled this Terr(a)ific rally? A Terr(a)ific Rally Terra reaped close to 14583% in yearly ROIs v. USD for its HODLers and the altcoin’s performance over the last month has been nothing short of extraordinary. Terra’s strong performance after its price broke a long downtrend presented the possibility of the altcoin hitting a new ATH, as highlighted in a previous article. One of the reasons behind this hike was the platform’s growing DeFi ecosystem. In fact, the altcoin’s dominance in the DeFi space saw a staggering growth over the last month. Notably, amid the larger market sell-offs, the Total Value Locked in all chains drastically fell, as per data from Defilama. Solana lost 10% of its TVL over the last 24 hours from press time while Ethereum’s TVL dropped by over 5% and BSC’s fell by 8.76%. On the other hand, Terra’s TVL rose by 12.74% in one day and by almost 50% over the last week and stood at $14.57 billion, just $2 billion short of Binance’s TVL. Noticeably, Terra’s rise in the DeFi sector and its increase in TVL are indicative of higher institutional interest in the network over the last month. This has been key to the surge in the token’s price. Apart from that, the altcoin’s development activity which dipped towards the end of November has also picked up. It rose by over 50% in the last five days alone. That being said, the percentage of stablecoin total supply held by whales with more than 5 million USD also held well at a higher level. What else is at play? Terra’s stablecoin ecosystem too has played a role in strengthening the narrative for the coin in the market by making it more interoperable. Terra has already rolled out numerous stablecoins, including TerraUSD (UST), TerraCNY, TerraJPY, TerraGBP, TerraKRW, TerraEUR, and the International Monetary Fund’s TerraSDR. These stablecoins have enabled the use of the network for retail payment services, thereby catering to the retail crowd. All this further aids fiat deposit interoperability which will allow less volatility to seek over a longer timeframe. Recently, Terra announced the news of its partnership with the Anyswap Network protocol. The partnership aims to bridge layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains and would now connect UST to FTM through a cross-chain bridge. All this further boosts the usage of Terra’s native token LUNA, thereby pumping the price. Additionally, recent changes in the issuance model of Terra have helped pump the price. Over the last week of November, over 7.2 million LUNA were burned. This adds to the supply shock narrative for the token in the long run.

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​​Bitcoin, Ethereum Rebound Sharply After Another Crash while El Salvador Misses 'the Fucking Bottom' The crypto market saw another sharp correction on Saturday morning (UTC time), followed by a strong rebound, while over USD 2.5bn in derivatives trading positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. El Salvador "bought the dip" once again. At the time of writing (08:43 UTC), all top 100 cryptoassets by market capitalization are still in the red. Bitcoin (BTC) trades at USD 47,778, recovering around 10% from USD 43,530 reached earlier today. The price is still down 15% in a day, reaching the level last seen at the beginning of October. BTC is now down 24% in a month. Meanwhile, ethereum (ETH) performed better during this crash and is now down by 13%, trading at USD 3,977. It recovered around 14%, after diving below USD 3,500 today. ETH is now down 14% in a month. Other coins from the top 10 club are down by 12%-21% in a day. Total liquidations in the crypto derivatives market surpassed USD 1.56bn in the past 4 hours and USD 2.5bn in a day, per Coinglass data. Over 400,500 trading positions were liquidated in a day. "As usual, since crypto traders deploy leverage it results in cascading sell orders and liquidations," Antoni Trenchev, Co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, told Bloomberg. "We should find support around USD 40,000 to USD 42,000 and then rebound in line for a end-year rally. If that does not hold, we might revisit the July lows of USD 30,000 to USD 35,000." Meanwhile, according to Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with crypto exchange Luno, markets have also been jittery with all the uncertainty around the omicron variant of the coronavirus. "It’s hard to say what that means for economies and markets and hence the uncertainty," he was quoted as saying. At the same, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele said the country had again bought the dip, adding BTC 150.

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​​Metaverse Spurs USD 100M In Weekly Land Plot NFT Sales The demand for digital land in Meta (formerly Facebook)’s Metaverse are booming, with last week bringing USD 100m in non-fungible token (NFT) land sales, according to a recent report by dapp information provider DappRadar. The four leading virtual worlds, The Sandbox, Decentraland, CryptoVoxels, and Somnium Space, are reporting robust land sales. Launched by the social media giant, the Metaverse comprises a set of interconnected, experiential, 3D virtual worlds which allows users to engage in an online economy that extends to both digital and physical. Last week, the four digital realms attracted aggregate traffic of more than 6,000 traders. The Sandbox led the way with the highest land trading volume of close to USD 86.6m, followed by Decentraland which generated more than USD 15.5m in land plot NFTs, as indicated by data from the report. CryptoVoxels and Somnium Space spurred about USD 2.7m and USD 1.1m in digital land sales, respectively. Five of the ten most expensive land plot NFT sales from last week were of metaverse land plot NFTs in different virtual worlds, DappRadar said. “The top grosser was the Fashion Street Estate in Decentraland, which switched owners for 618.000 MANA, or [USD] 2.42 million,” the company said. This has led DappRadar to the conclusion that, without doubt, "metaverse land is the next big hit in the NFT space," stating: "Outputting record sales numbers and constantly increasing NFT prices, virtual worlds are the new top commodity in the crypto space. The wave of attention towards virtual worlds like The Sandbox and Decentraland started with Facebook’s rebranding to Meta." Meanwhile, digital asset investment firm Grayscale argued in a recent report that Metaverse could become “a trillion-dollar revenue opportunity across advertising, social commerce, digital events, hardware, and developer/creator monetization,” but it did not specify the time frame within which this growth could take place. Michael Gord, COO at the virtual real estate company Metaverse Group, told The New York Times that skeptics should take account of the trends catalyzed by the ongoing pandemic, and that it was “inevitable that the metaverse will be the No. 1 social network in the world.” “Imagine if you came to New York when it was farmland, and you had the option to get a block of SoHo,” Gord said. “If someone wants to buy a block of real estate in SoHo today, it’s priceless, it’s not on the market. That same experience is going to happen in the metaverse.”

​​ICP's 'Long-Awaited' Transferability Upgrade Went Live The DFINITY Foundation, a not-for-profit organization developing technology for the Internet Computer (ICP) blockchain, has launched an upgrade proposed by the community to expand support for all canister smart contracts, enabling users to hold and transfer ICP tokens. ICP tokens will be sent and received via a decentralized app (dapp) such as OpenChat, a decentralized version of WhatsApp. "Now...canister smart contracts on the Internet Computer have become able to hold and transfer ICP tokens for the first time, providing for the development of a new generation of decentralized finance DeFi, and the blending of DeFi with social media and games functionality in the form of SocialFi and GameFi, forging the path towards billions of end users," said Dominic Williams, founder at DFINITY. The ICP community voted on the update on November 25, and the bulk majority (more than 99%) approved it. The Internet Computer is a blockchain that aims to enable everyone to build and deploy autonomous and tamper-proof canisters, "an evolution of smart contracts," as DFINITY said. Launched in May 2021, the project became one of the most popular protocols, attracting thousands of developers and hundreds of projects in DeFi, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), SocialFi, GameFi, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). ICP, the native token to the project, made a splashy debut as it was priced at USD 731 and earned a market capitalization of around USD 45bn. However, the coin has since shed more than USD 37.4bn off of its market capitalization. At 12:40 UTC, the 29th coin by market capitalization, ICP, is trading at USD 41.56. It is unchanged in both the 24-hour and the 7-day periods, suggesting that the market is not much excited about the update. The coin is also down 3.6% in a month. Meanwhile, DFINITY aims to directly integrate the Bitcoin (BTC) network with the Internet Computer, bringing smart contracts to Bitcoin through an application of Chain Key cryptography, they said.

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​​This Ethereum L2 rose by 1551%, outperformed Loopring, dYdX, Optimism Ethereum has seen a myriad of Layer-2 solutions developing over time, with the fight to gain prominence never-ending. However, the emergence of Boba Network has challenged some longstanding L2 solutions to place itself in the #2 spot. The new Ethereum L2 champ? Layer-2 solutions have seen some solid domination from Arbitrum, but the second place has been a matter of competition for a while now. It was once Optimism’s spot but after October, it was controlled by dYdX. And now, its place has been taken by the Boba Network. Boba Network’s TVL has been dragging in the $40 million range for months now. However, that changed this month as in the last 10 days, its TVL went from $87 million to $1.4 billion. Simply put, the project has hiked by 1,551% over the aforementioned time period. The reason for this strong growth is that protocols began to be built and developed on Boba. Specifically – OolongSwap, the first AMM DEX on Boba Network. Skyrocketing TVL The DEX’s TVL was $9 million 12 days ago and today, it is at $477 million – Accounting for a 5200% hike. With over 5000 users in all, the network has over 95,977.21 ETH worth almost $397 million on it. Although the L2 has only 5 protocols on it, it has managed to outperform the likes of Optimism which has 9 protocols active on the network. The rise of OolongSwap has contributed significantly to Ethereum’s overall TVL this week. Especially since while DEXes are the second biggest contributors, their performance was terrible the week before, falling by 6.51%. This week, however, saw the same hike up by 4.08%. The network also launched its own token on 22 November. It was trading at $7.5 at its peak when it rose by 80% in 4 days before yesterday’s corrections hit and it fell down by 24%. It was trading at $6.05, at the time of this report. Boba Network is consistently growing. That is a good sign as it even crossed the 100k transactions milestone a couple of days ago. But, with Ethereum, the high gas fees are an ever concerning issue that could affect Boba’s growth going forward.

​​XRP, Tron, The Sandbox Price Analysis: 26 November While the overall market outlook skewed slightly in favor of bulls, XRP and Tron touched their multi-week lows on 24 November. A near-term bullish revival could occur if the bulls gather enough force. Contrarily, SAND saw soaring gains as it touched its ATH on 25 November but now showed signs of slowing down. XRP Since last month, Ripple’s XRP witnessed a dynamic bull versus bear clash. From 27 October, it oscillated within the ascending parallel channel (white). During this phase, XRP rallied by 35% to poke its two-month high on 10 November. Since then, however, the bulls lost their strength as the trend reversed. This pullback resulted in a 25.3% correction until the price touched its four-week low on 24 November. With this downfall, XRP formed a descending triangle pattern. At press time, XRP was trading at $1.0312. The RSI was in an uptrend since the past week but struggled to cross the half-line. Also, the DMI displayed a bearish bias. Although AO was below the equilibrium level, it hinted at increasing bullish power. However, the ADX showed a weak directional trend. Further, a descending triangle breakout could occur if the bulls are unable to gather momentum. Tron (TRX) Since late September, TRX steadily maintained and noted higher lows on its up channel. From 29 September, the alt recorded an over 54% 47-day ROI. Thus, the rally triggered the price to its six-month high on 15 November. However, the bears continually showed resistance at the upper channel. As a result, the price moved back into the trend after noting an over 20% nine-day decline to poke its three-week low on 24 November. This fall visibly pushed the price below the 4-hour 20-50-200 SMA, depicting a powerful bearish influence. At press time, TRX traded at $0.09896. The RSI attempted a revival but could not cross the half-line. Also, the DMI skewed in favor of the bears along with a high directional trend. Nevertheless, the bulls may trigger an uptrend once the price drops to the lower channel. The Sandbox (SAND) As times for the Metaverse space keep getting exciting, SAND undeniably defied the market trend and saw exponential gains over the past month. From 28 October, SAND saw an exceptional 508% rally as it touched its then ATH on 18 November. The price action formed an ascending triangle pattern (yellow). Consequent to the announcement of its upcoming project, the price saw a breakout and went into discovery mode. Further, the recent tie-up with Adidas and its developments in the metaverse bolstered the price action to touch its ATH on 25 November. However, at press time, the alt traded at $7.1179 after noting a 14.28% 24-hour loss. The RSI plunged from the overbought territory to the 63-mark. While DMI preferred the bulls, MACD and AO hinted at their decreasing strength.

​​Zcash Extends Rally After Proof-of-Stake Plan, Twitter Shills The privacy-focused cryptocurrency zcash (ZEC) is being noticed by traders again after a rally of more than 50% over the past week. The rally followed news from last week that the coin will switch to a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm. At 14:27 UTC on Wednesday, ZEC was up 22.7% over the past 24 hours and 56% for the past week, trading at a price of USD 261. Despite the strong gains in recent days, however, zcash is still far away from its 2018 high of nearly USD 800. The coin has also ended up somewhat in the shadow of monero (XMR), another privacy-focused coin with a significantly larger market capitalization. The gains today come after Electric Coin Company, the organization behind zcash, last week launched a new roadmap for development and said they will move the cryptocurrency to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus algorithm, from previously relying on proof-of-work (PoW). The PoS consensus mechanism has become more popular in recent years, with proponents arguing that it is a more environmentally friendly way to secure cryptocurrency networks than the more energy-intensive PoW model. In addition to transitioning to proof-of-stake, the organization also said it will release a new wallet that will leverage the new consensus algorithm, and that cross-chain interoperability across Web 3 protocols will continue to be an area of focus. “In this internet, ZEC will be a critical means for economic good and used in solutions that protect privacy and liberties,” Electric Coin Company said about its vision for ZEC’s place in tomorrow’s Internet. Following the release of the new roadmap, the coin has received public attention from some heavyweights in the crypto industry. Among them was CEO and founder of Digital Currency Group, Barry Silbert, who retweeted and shared a number of bullish takes on the cryptocurrency as of late. In particular, Silbert appeared to focus on what he called other people’s “hate” towards the coin. It is worth noting, however, that Silbert’s firm already has an interest in attracting investors to zcash via its Grayscale Zcash Trust, a publicly traded investment vehicle in the US. In addition to the positive comments from Barry Silbert, however, whistleblower and privacy advocate Edward Snowden has also praised zcash publicly in recent days, saying on Twitter that it is “a decentralized, functional chain with a specific (and useful) purpose.” Snowden added that zcash enables private transactions “extremely well,” and that the coin in his view “meaningfully advanced what cryptocurrency could DO.”

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