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$BTC has rallied right into its strongest level of resistance… 👀 Bitcoin has finally broken above and into the $66k-$67k resistance zone, which is objectively a very strong move that could affect the macro outlook if we get the following confirmation: First, we must see this level hold strong heading into the weekly close, which is still five days away and A LOT can happen in five days. I’ve mentioned MANY times that a weekly close above $66k would be objectively bullish, but that’s the key. We must see where the weekly close occurs before jumping to conclusions. We saw something very similar a few weeks ago when we rallied to $67k and then rejected before closing the weekly candle back below $66k. This move does not mean anything from a macro perspective until we get weekly close confirmation. With that being said, this rally has been quite impressive, and it could very well continue higher into the next major resistance on the VRPV at $70k. We would then also need to break that level before we can further increase the probability that the macro bottom is in. Keep a VERY close eye on this level over the coming days as we head into the weekly close. This might be the most important weekly candle close we’ve seen in months.

Quick update on the $BTC short term chart… 👀 As I’ve been expecting, we’ve finally seen a proper retest of the $65.7k level that I’ve been hyper fixated on for close to two months now, as this marks our prior weekly BOS. As we can clearly see, this level is acting as short term resistance following the rally we’ve seen over the past 24 hours. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a rejection here into a retest of the strong support sitting around $64k on the VRVP. Although this rally has been quite strong from a short term perspective, we can’t objectively assume the probability of a larger macro move higher is favorable until the $65.7k to $66k range is reclaimed with a weekly candle close. It’s still only Monday, so let’s keep a very close eye on how price action reacts to this level throughout the week. If we close above it, we can start to entertain a macro continuation higher. But if we close below, we should still expect further macro downside.

$BTC is still yet to confirm any significant signs of a macro reversal… 👀 Today, $BTC closed its weekly candle below the important BOS level and macro resistance at $65.7k-$66k, which once again leaves the macro bias objectively bearish. I’ve said this many times, and I’ll say it again, until we reclaim $65.7k-$66k via a weekly candle close, it is objectively incorrect to expect higher prices on the macro. With that being said, once $65.7k-$66k IS broken, the opposite would also be true, it would be objectively incorrect to expect further downside over at least the next few weekly candles following the breakout. This is THE most important level in my eyes from a macro perspective, and until it’s broken, this short term rally is nothing more than short term noise. Keep a VERY CLOSE eye on this level as we head into the new week!

$BTC is doing just what I’ve been expecting… 👀 As we head toward tomorrow’s weekly close, price has once again started to climb back toward our HTF resistance level at $65.7k-$66k. It is VERY important that we break above this level with a WEEKLY candle close before we start expecting higher prices over the next few weeks or months. We have also been forming a strong uptrend, so it will be very important to see if that trend continues to hold as we approach resistance. It will be VERY interesting and VERY important to see where price closes on tomorrow’s weekly candle, as it will most definitely give us stronger confirmation of the macro direction moving forward.

My thesis on the $DXY is still going according to plan… 👀 With the weekly candle holding strong right around the 200EMA, my expectation is that we still have higher to go as we get later into the year. I’m expecting this rally to take us into the next level of resistance around 103-104. As we all know, the $DXY has a very strong inverse correlation with risk assets, which would mean a rally in the $DXY would likely result in a dump across risk assets. This would line up perfectly with my expectations of specifically $BTC and the stock market finding their cycle lows later this year as the $DXY continues to rally. This is a strong macro chart that I’ll be keeping a very close eye on. Once we see the next strong breakout here, I’d expect the next major breakdown across risk assets to begin.

$BTC’s short term price action is going exactly according to plan… 👀 After yesterday’s retest above $65k, I talked about the strong possibility of price coming back down to retest the 200EMA before moving higher. Now, as we can see, this is exactly what has played out. $BTC is still trading just above the 200EMA, which I do think will continue to hold as relatively strong support. If the 200EMA fails to hold here, then I’d expect further downside back into the $62k region. If we start to see some strong buying pressure here at the 200EMA, we could very well see another push higher to finally retest the major weekly resistance around $65.7k-$66k. Keep a very close eye on price action as we head into the weekend!

Some very interesting short term price action on $BTC… 👀 After PPI inflation reports came back very cold this morning, similar to CPI yesterday, we saw all risk assets including crypto rally very strongly. This took Bitcoin all the way back to reclaiming $65.5k, which is RIGHT below our major macro resistance sitting at $65.7k-$66k. At the beginning of the week, I talked about the possibility of inflation data affecting short term price action and leading us to retest the major resistance above $65k, and that is exactly what happened. We are now seeing some exhaustion from the buyers, as price failed to touch $65.7k. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another push higher to test that level as we head into the weekend. But if we start to see a breakdown here, we could fall back to the 200EMA. Keep a very close eye on price action as we head into the end of the week!

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Some VERY volatile price action here on $BTC… 👀 As I mentioned yesterday, I was expecting the CPI data release to create major volatility in either direction, depending on whether the print came in hot or cold. As we can see, the inflation report came in much cooler than expected, coming in significantly below forecasts. This led to a MAJOR green candle on $BTC, pushing price right back into the prior uptrend that it had broken down from yesterday. We have since been slowly grinding higher along that uptrend, but we have still yet to break above or even retest the major resistance around $65.7k to $66k. Until that level is broken, this short term price action doesn’t change much from a long term perspective. Tomorrow we are getting another inflation report, which could also bring more volatility to the markets. Since expectations are once again for a cooler than expected reading, I’d assume we are likely to see some more green heading into the middle of the week. Keep a VERY close eye on $65.7k to $66k with tomorrow’s news!

Let’s take a look at the $BTC short term price action… 👀 As we can see, Bitcoin has broken back below its 200EMA after multiple failed attempts to continue higher from that support level, which has led to a strong correction in price. This correction has brought $BTC down to short term support around $62k, which appears to be holding up well so far. I mentioned this being a possibility as support weakens overtime if it’s constantly retested. Although today’s move has been pretty bloody, we have some highly important inflation reports coming out tomorrow, which could easily reverse this entire move if the data comes in better than expected. Likewise, this correction could continue if the inflation reports come in hotter than expected. It’s still early in the week, but I’ll be specifically keeping a close eye on $65.7k as the major macro resistance level that could get retested from the volatility we’re likely to see as the week progresses.

The weekly close on $BTC has once again not been enough to confirm a macro reversal… 👀 As I’ve mentioned throughout the week, Bitcoin MUST see a weekly candle close above $65.7k-$66k (our prior bearish BOS level) to confirm any longer-term macro reversal. Even if price retests this level and wicks above it, that still won’t be enough. We need to see the weekly CLOSE above this level. Until then, we should assume price remains in a macro downtrend. There’s also plenty of major macro news this week, including inflation reports and continued developments in the US-Iran war, both of which could bring significant volatility. Keep a very close eye on this level throughout the week!

$BTC is continuing to strongly respect support here… 👀 After Bitcoin broke back above the 4H 200EMA the other day, we have yet to see a strong continuation move higher. However, at the same time, the 200EMA has proven to be an EXTREMELY well respected level by price action. In my opinion, as long as price continues to hold this support, we are very likely to see a rally from the 200EMA in the short term into our weekly resistance around $65.7k-$66k. With that being said, if price fails to see a strong rally from the 200EMA sooner then later, the chances of that support continuing to hold will only decrease over time. If we do see a significant move this weekend, I’d expect it to come around this time tomorrow when we get the weekly candle close. And as I keep mentioning, as long as the weekly closes below $65.7k, we should continue to expect lower prices on the macro. Keep a very close eye on this level throughout the weekend!

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Some very strong short term price action here on $BTC… 👀 As we can see, Bitcoin has FINALLY broken back above the 200EMA on the 4H timeframe. We are now watching price come back down to retest that level, which has continued to hold as support relatively well. As I mentioned the other day, if we break above the 200EMA, there’s a very strong chance we continue this rally to retest the major macro resistance at $65.7k-$66k. With price continuing to hold above the 200EMA for multiple candle closes, I’m expecting this retest to result in a short term continuation higher. The worst case scenario would be price losing support at the 200EMA, which would likely result in a move back toward $62.6k. However, based on how price is reacting here, I don’t think this scenario is very likely. With all that being said, even if we rally back toward $65.7k, if we cannot close a weekly candle above that level, nothing will have changed on the macro. Only once we close a weekly candle above $65.7k can we start to objectively view the HTF as bullish again. As always, keep a VERY close eye on how price reacts to these levels: Chart

Not much has changed here on the macro $BTC chart… 👀 Although we have seen a nice rally today back toward $64k, we still have not seen enough of a push to objectively flip the macro charts into a bullish outlook. As I’ve been mentioning, until we break above the prior BOS at $65.7k-$66k on the weekly chart, we should continue to expect more macro downside. However, once we DO confirm a break back above that $65.7k-$66k level with a weekly candle close, we should expect a much stronger macro reversal over the following weeks. Every short term rally that fails to break this level is nothing more than noise and is NOT a sign of a higher time frame reversal. Make sure you’re keeping a VERY close eye on these levels: Chart

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VERY interesting price action here on $BTC… 👀 As I mentioned yesterday, I was expecting a strong move in the short term soon, either a breakout above the 200EMA or a breakdown below the 50EMA, as we were starting to see compression between those moving averages. As we can see over the past few hours, price has broken down below the 50EMA and is now retesting, and possibly rejecting, that prior support level which has now flipped into resistance. The best case scenario for the bulls would be for the 50EMA to once again be flipped into support, which would confirm that this breakdown was simply a deviation set up. With that being said, if the next few 4H candles continue to reject from the 50EMA, it’s very likely we head back to the 60k or even sub $60k region very soon. Keep a very close eye on how price reacts to these levels: Chart

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