Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk - HMSP
Aditya Prayoga
HMSP: Transitioning Toward the Future of Tobacco
>HMSP remains the market leader in Indonesia’s tobacco industry with c.30.7% market share in FY25, supported by strong brand equity through Marlboro, Sampoerna A, and Dji Sam Soe, as well as an extensive distribution network covering more than 100 sales and distribution points nationwide. Beyond conventional cigarettes, HMSP continues to strengthen its exposure to SFP through IQOS (HTP), VEEV (e-vapor), and ZYN (nicotine pouches), positioning the company to capture evolving consumer preferences toward reduced-risk nicotine products.
>Indonesia remains significantly underpenetrated in the global SFP market. HTP penetration stood at only c.0.6% in FY25, well below levels observed in several developed and emerging markets. While conventional cigarettes still accounted for c.82.5% of global tobacco industry volume in FY25, the HTP segment is expected to be one of the fastest-growing categories globally, supported by increasing adoption of smoke-free alternatives and expanding regulatory acceptance in various markets.
>HMSP delivered a relatively resilient 1Q26 performance, with net profit increasing 7.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion despite revenue declining 5.5% YoY to IDR27.2 trillion. Growth was primarily supported by improving profitability and strong momentum in the SFP segment, where revenue surged 43.8% YoY to IDR637 billion, increasing its contribution to total revenue to 2.3%.
>Looking ahead, we expect HMSP to return to low-single-digit revenue growth in FY26F, supported by a gradual stabilization in conventional cigarette volumes and continued expansion of the SFP business. Meanwhile, profitability is expected to improve as excise-related production costs normalize following the absence of excise tax increases in FY26, allowing for a more balanced pricing strategy and better gross margin recovery.
> We forecast FY26F revenue and net profit growth of 2.0% YoY and 11.8% YoY, respectively, driven by improving operational efficiency, easing cost pressures, and growing contribution from higher-growth smoke-free products. Meanwhile, gross profit margin
is projected to improve to 18.4% in FY26F (vs. 15.7% in FY24), driven by the stabilization of excise-related production costs per stick (c.IDR 800/stick in FY26F) and a more moderate pace of ASP increases
> Upside risks include: (1) stronger-than-expected SFP adoption, (2) stable excise policy environment, and (3) faster recovery in industry volumes. Key downside risks include: (1) higher-than-expected excise tax increases, (2) prolonged consumer downtrading, and (3) intensifying competition across both conventional and smoke-free product categories.
Full Report:
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