Centrum Finverse Limited

STI UPDATE BOOK PART PROFIT IN GROWW AT 201 AND TRAIL SL TO COST FOR THE REST

STI BUY GODFRYPHLP 2270-2280 SL 2210 TGT 2410 Disclaimer: https://www.centrumgalaxc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CFL-RA-Disclaimer.pdf

POSITIONAL TRADING IDEA UPDATE: BOOK PART PROFIT IN *DEEPAKFERT IS UP 6% AT CMP 1579*, AND TRAIL SL TO COST FOR THE REST

STI BUY SOUTHBANK CASH 46-46.50 SL 44.4 TGT 51 Disclaimer: https://www.centrumgalaxc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CFL-RA-Disclaimer.pdf

FY26 Closing Order Book at ₹159 bn, below ₹200 bn target due to deferral of mining tenders to Q1-Q2FY27 FY27 Order Inflow Guidance of ₹150 bn targeting closing order book of ₹240 bn; large pipeline in metros and defence FY27, FY28 and FY29 Earnings Estimates cut 2%, 4% and 10% respectively on supply chain constraints Valued at 37x March 2028 estimated EPS unchanged

Regional and emerging market investors have now sold a record net US$30.1bn of Indian stocks YTD Indian stocks selling primarily due to fund flows into Taiwan and Korea Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio-Weight Up-Lodha Developers Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio-Weight Down-SBI Life Insurance, Zomato, PB Fintech *CLSA On India Economics* Rupee could rise to Rs93-94:US$1 Recent schemes could attract FX inflows of at least US$30bn The introduction of a concessional FX swap for ECBs by PSUs Decision of the RBI to bear full hedging costs on fresh 3-5-year FCNR(B) deposits Tax exemptions on FPI holdings of G-secs Such inflows would lead to significant improvement in the expected BOP deficit, which could put a lid on rupee depreciation bias *Morgan Stanley On Internet* Reiterate Eternal as Top Pick Eternal-given good execution, a solid balance sheet, and favorable industry growth tailwinds. India's internet market cap index has corrected 8% from its end-Mar'26 peak, tracking a similar pattern to the US Internet market cap index. High dispersion across stocks: In the past month, Eternal outperformed Swiggy by 11% Shadowfax over Delhivery by 28%, and Paytm over Pine Labs by 14%. PE/VC funding environment is challenging on a TTM basis (-23% YoY), but capital continues to flow into areas – e.g., instant vertical commerce, instant services. Earnings downgrade risks persist, driven by heightened competition (quick commerce, instant services) and a potential demand slowdown such as in travel. Key OWs in the group include Eternal , Pine Labs and Shadowfax Expect competition-related overhangs to persist in quick commerce and instant services, although growth tailwinds remain strong. In e-commerce logistics,see favorable industry tailwinds as 3PL players gain share, with both Delhivery (rated EW) and Shadowfax well positioned. Within e-commerce, expect Meesho (rated EW) to outpace most peers on growth while delivering gradual improvement in profitability *Goldman Sachs On Oil* Keep 2026Q4 Brent $90 forecast as the easing effect from a smaller-than-expected deficit During the Hormuz disruption so far offsets the tightening effect from a longer disruption Assume that oil exports from Gulf producers normalize by late August (vs. by late June prior) Normalization may be achieved with a rise in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections. Lower 2027 average Brent forecast by $5 to $80 on higher supply and lower demand. OECD commercial oil stocks are unlikely to reach very high levels following sharp 2026 draws Security premium compensating for disruption risk is likely to keep a floor under prices. *Morgan Stanley On Oil India* Maintain Underweight, TP Rs 404 Believe the share price will fall in absolute terms over the next 30 days 5% impact on Oil India's earning on recent royalty rate changes Gas ASP increases will underperform Street estimates Fuel refining profitability drops almost by half as the impact of tax benefits unwind Headwinds from slower pipeline network expansion Prefer ONGC within upstream segment *Morgan Stanley On Oberoi Realty* Maintain Equal Weight, TP Rs 1440 Believe share price will rise over next 60 days Expect co to launch Phase 1 of Gurgaon Project 360 North 360 North will have launch value exceeding Rs 3000cr Project is witnessing strong on ground traction Which could translate sales of over Rs 2500cr Implying 56% YoY pre-sales growth in Q1FY27 *Elara Capital on BEML* Maintain Buy, Target Price ₹2,620 vs ₹2,700 earlier Executable Order Book of ₹55 bn for FY27 with sales growth target of 15-25% over next three years EBITDA Margin Guidance of 15-16% despite higher R&D spend as operating leverage kicks in Rail and Metro Segment expected to contribute around ₹20 bn sales in FY27, a jump of around 100% year on year

Buy, TP Rs 1390 Stock has corrected 13% over the last three and a half months, primarily due to elevated input gas costs (Brent at USD102/bbl in 1QFY27’td vs USD69/bbl in FY26; Spot LNG at USD18/mmbtu in 1QFY27’td vs USD12/mmbtu in FY26) and rupee depreciation (11% YoY in 1QFY27’td), which contracted margins. While margin pressure continues to persist, improving D-PNG conversion momentum (up 50% vs pre-war levels), easing execution bottlenecks, sustained CNG volume growth, likely further INR2-3/kg CNG price hikes (INR5/kg CNG price hikes already taken post-war), and stronger I&C realizations should support earnings going forward. At 10.8x FY28E P/E (near mean -1 S.D.), valuations appear attractive, offering scope for re-rating as margin pressures ease. *MOSL on Equitas SFB* Buy, TP Rs 85 Analyst day takeaways Highlighted its long-term strategy of growing at a healthy pace of 20%+ over the next five years. Growth is expected to be driven by secured asset classes like small business loans (SBL), vehicle finance (VF), and home loan (HL) segments, while the MFI business is expected to be capped at 10% of the loan book Liability franchise is likely to be strengthened by progressively graduating toward mass affluent-formal segments and deepening penetration in existing geographies Operating leverage is expected to improve over the medium term, supported by higher in-house sourcing, streamlined processes, and new tech capabilities. Asset quality trends remain healthy, with stability in the MFI segment and strong performance across core secured classes such as SBL and VF. Management has guided for credit costs to settle at 1.25-1.50% on a steady state basis, and has guided for an RoA of 1.5%, with an upward bias toward 1.8% during favorable times *Axis Capital On Equitas Small Finance Bank* Maintain Add, TP Rs 76 Management has guided for 20%+ growth in FY27E on product traction. MFI will be maintained at ~10% of AUM-mix. Cost To Income is expected to improve in H2FY27E on operating leverage Supporting a full-year RoA of ~1.2%, with an exit of ~1.5%. Over the medium term, Equitas expects its business-mix to remain stable, enabling a sustained 20%+ growth with limited incremental capex Targets a steady-state RoA of ~1.5% (range 1.0-1.8%) Reflecting inherent cyclicality in its segments but moderated by a diversified secured portfolio *Axis Capital On Indian Hotels* Maintain ADD, TP Rs 735 (From Rs 747) IHCL’s FY26 performance was driven by the luxury segment Taj adding 70% of sales, and along with Taj SATS, adding ~80% of EBITDA. Medium-term growth will be driven by RevPAR growth in Taj and incremental revenues from key additions (mostly managed keys, owned in Ginger). Diversified portfolio provides resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty higher share in midscale (owned), where competition is higher, limits RevPAR growth. The stock trades expensive, limiting upside. *Axis Capital On SRF* Maintain Buy, TP Rs 3160 Expect recovery in specialty chemicals growth H2FY27 onwards FY26 was a mix of continued pricing pressure from China and SRF’s thrust on cost management Specialty chemicals’ revenue dipped ~6% on such pricing pressure and deferral in new product launches by innovators negated by ~60% surge in ref gas (led by volume and pricing), driving a 16% rise in chemicals’ revenue in FY26. Capex to rise to Rs 25bn+ annually as it expands into HFO, fluoropolymers and specialty chemicals. *Jefferies-Greed & Fear* Bond pressures and AI resets AI should turn out to be disinflationary Higher Treasury bond yields and anticipated renewed Fed tightening, with money markets now expecting 26bp of rate hikes this year Threat of higher interest rates, aggressive positioning of retail investors in leveraged ETFs and the potential for the pending mega IPOs to suck liquidity out of the recent winners

*Bernstein On India Power Sector* Adani Power-Maintain Outperform-TP Rs 220 (From Rs 177) JSW Energy-Maintain Outperform-TP Rs 623 (From Rs 575) Waaree Energy-Maintain Underperform-TP Rs 2539 (From Rs 2109) See the Indian power sector a structural and not a cyclical story Fresh boost with weather, energy security and Data-Center. Demand- finally some respite, retain 1x gdp multiplier view long term Supply- high chances of evening shortage continuing next 3 years Private Indian utilities on the other hand are at significant premium, but we would add thermal players on dips. Preference is still non-solar power (thermal-nuclear-battery), over solar. NTPC being preferred name. Positive on power lenders (preferring PFC over REC) *Investec On Greenlam* Maintain Hold, TP Rs 240 Company reiterated its top-line growth guidance of 18-20% over the next couple of years, along with an EBITDAM target of 13-14%. Build in more conservative assumptions relative to management guidance, factoring in weak demand conditions and cost headwinds. Laminates segment continues to perform well other growth drivers remain a drag on overall performance. Management also indicated its intent to enter the mass plywood segment, which could support capacity utilization. *Investec on Jindal Stainless* Buy, TP Rs 825 JSL has corrected 23% over past 6m, potentially on concerns of elevated capex, gas linked disruption, rate hikes amongst others Believe co’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by (a) effective navigation of gas-related challenges with limited impact on production and spreads, (b) strong execution in 1H, which could drive an upward revision in guidance, (c) a demonstrated track record of disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging, underscoring management’s RoCE-focused capex approach & b/s prudence *Investec on Astral* Buy, TP Rs 1710 Astral to acquire 60% partnership interest in Differentiated and Sustainable Solutions LLP (DSS) for Rs391m. DSS has development/manufacturing capabilities in speciality chemicals & advanced materials View this as a strategic step toward deepening backward integration (similar to CPVC resin), and this could drive cost efficiencies while also creating optionality to scale DSS into a standalone, profitable vertical Await further clarity on potential revenue ramp-up That said, see upside risk to forecasts, supported by two company-specific levers: CPVC backward integration & DSS acquisition. *Investec on Cement* Pan India dealer checks a) On m-o-m basis, average pan India trade prices declined by Rs2/bag in May’26. East witnessed the steepest decline followed by West and Central. b) Prices are higher by Rs7/bag in YTQFY27 versus Q4FY26. c) No price hike announcements for June’26. d) Dealers indicate demand was affected due to heat waves, labour shortages in May’26 Expect spreads in 1HFY27E to be impacted by cost inflation (fuel, packaging), with increase in diesel prices further increasing the ask on price growth Retain UTCEM/ACEM, JSWC/JKCE as BUYs. *INCRED on Jubilant Ingrevia* ADD, TP cut to Rs 755 Chinese oversupply is exerting pressure on prices of ethyl acetate, acetic anhydride, and choline chloride. Pyridine leadership is strong, but margins remain thin and new growth areas need capability building Expect an EPS CAGR of 12% over FY26–29F. RoE and RoCE are expected to fall to 9.9% and 10.5%, respectively, in FY28F In this scenario, trading above 3x book value looks difficult. *MOSL on Nuvama* Buy, TP Rs 1860 Steady growth business with attractive valuations Strong industry tailwinds for wealth management Expect revenue/PAT to post growth of 18%/19% over FY26-28 Stock is currently trading at one of cheapest valuations in capital market ecosystem at FY28E P/E of 19x, making it an attractive bet *MOSL on MGL*

*Jefferies on SBI* Buy, TP Rs 1300 AR analysis points out that repricing corporate loans would be key to sustaining NIMs, as deposits mature faster than assets, potentially leading to faster repricing of deposits. It has improved consistently on deposit/ branch, lowered PSLC needs, leveraged on banca-fees & carries limited buffer provisions. Slight risk can come from ECL transition See 13% CAGR in loans & ROE of 14% Vals reasonable at 1.4x FY27 adj PB *Jefferies on Autos* Earnings outlook for Indian autos has weakened in 2026 amid demand as well as margin concerns. However, intensity of Street earnings cuts is relatively lower for 2Ws, auto-comps with global exposure, and MM. Consensus FY27 EPS, in Jun-Q, is: 1) up 3% for BJAUT, 2) down 1-3% for BHFC, MOTHERSO, SONACOMS, BELRISE, HMCL, EIM, TVSL, MM & TMPV, 3) but down a sharp 7-12% for HYUNDAI, AL, MSIL & UNOMINDA. Buy on EIM, TVSL and MM More positive on auto-comps given tailwinds of portfolio expansion; Buys across BHFC, MOTHERSO, BELRISE, UNOMINDA & SONACOMS. *CLSA on Autos* Premium segment continues to outshine entry segment for both PVs and 2Ws. However, Maruti’s mini and compact segment volumes have improved - cumulative improvement is 8-10k per month. For others, it continues to remain subdued. Premium motorcycles (>125cc) and SUVs continue to lead as buyers maintain budgets post GST rate cut, but prefer better-equipped, feature-rich options. OEMs also highlighted that rising share of first-time buyers further aided by replacement demand would aid growth and hence OEMs remain confident on strong single digit growth despite tough macroeconomic conditions. M&M is extending its PV market-share gains through successful new models, while TMPV’s recent launches have sharply lifted its volume run-rate. In 2Ws, premium-focussed players like TVSL and Royal Enfield are consistently gaining share, and we believe Bajaj Auto’s refreshed portfolio positions it to recover from CY25 lows. In OEMs, M&M, TMPV and Bajaj Auto remain top picks *JPM on Hero Moto* OW. TP Rs 6430 Management meet key takeaways 1) Domestic 2W industry should grow at 7-8% and HMCL should outperform; 2) Industry shift towards scooters/EV remains a headwind, but HMCL expects to offset this through disproportionate growth in these segments in FY27; 3) Export growth trends should sustain (FY24-26 CAGR was 42%) 4) Margins could be weak in the near term but gradual price hikes plus PLI benefits in EVs should aid improvement going forward. While HMCL stock is attractively valued (FY28E P/E at 13x), investor concerns are centered on their continued market-share loss Market shift away from motorcycles should continue to be a headwind, but HMCL did manage to offset some of this through gains in scooters and EVs in FY26 *GS on Ola Electric* Neutral, TP Rs 38.90 Update model for 1) Ola Electric's recent fund raise 2) Latest electric 2W penetration and market share trends. On June 5, OLAE raised Rs7.8bn (US$82mn) at a price of Rs35.85 per share. This corresponds to issuance of 217.5mn shares (5% dilution) Fund raise corresponds to slightly more than 3 quarters of OLAE's quarterly EBITDA burn of US$25.5mn (4Q26). In FY26, OLAE had an operating cash flow burn of US$81mn. Ola Electric has debt obligations of US$65mn/35mn/37mn/36mn/110mn in FY27/28/29/30/31-35E. *UBS on Motilal Oswal* Initiate Buy, TP Rs 1150 Transition to AUM-led platform supports nonlinear earnings growth Structural beneficiary of financialisation-led AUM expansion Operating leverage drives non-linear earnings growth Mix shift towards AMC and private wealth underpins potential re-rating For FY26-29E, expect AUM to expand at a 21% CAGR, driving a 19% revenue CAGR Believe market underappreciates MOFSL’s shift to higher quality, recurring wealth and distribution earnings, reducing broking cyclicality and driving a 22% earnings CAGR over FY26-29E

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Morgan Stanley On Reliance Maintain Overweight, TP Rs 1803 META and  Reliance announced  that META will lease  168 MW in the first phase of data centre capacity from Reliance At its 1GW Jamanagar datacenter, with an  option to scale up. META will cover the cost of energy and water supporting facilities. META will connect the datacenter to its cable systems (Project Waterworth), which links the US, India, Brazil and South Africa, among other regions. RIL's proposed US $110bn AI investment over seven years is as large as its last investment cycle in 2014-21 for its consumer businesses. Estimate the Intelligence business will deliver 12%+ post tax ROCE, i.e., ~2x higher than its consumer/telco investments over the past decade. Goldman Sachs On Reliance Industries Maintain Buy, TP Rs 1910 Revise FY27E/28E EBITDA estimates by -4.5%/-2.0% Weaker INR outlook,  stronger refining cracks outlook offset in near-term by higher crude premium, windfall taxes on refined products, and higher LPG production Lower E&P earnings driven by higher oil and LNG price outlook, more than offset by mark to market of larger KG D6 production volume decline and higher opex Lower Retail earnings factoring in margin impact from investments in JioMart lower FY27E/28E EPS by -8.5%/-2.6% as mark to market other non-operating income and expenses based on FY26 actual results

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STI UPDATE BOOK PAROFIT IN FORTIS CMP 1010 AND TRAIL SL TO COST FOR THE REST

STI BUY SRF 2720-2725 SL 2645 TGT 2870 Disclaimer: https://www.centrumgalaxc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CFL-RA-Disclaimer.pdf

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STI UPDATE BOOK PART PROFIT IN CHENNPETRO 1236 AND TRAIL SL TO COST FOR THE REST