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📊 Gold dips as investors anticipate gradual rate cuts by the Fed Gold (XAU) price dropped by 1.23% on Tuesday due to the strengthening U.S. dollar (USD) and rising Treasury yields as investors increasingly expect only gradual rate cuts in 2025. 👉 Possible effects for traders The U.S. Retail Sales report released yesterday added some bearish pressure on XAUUSD. The report showed that retail sales rose by 0.7% in November amid an acceleration in motor vehicle purchases, signalling that inflation may remain elevated. Thus, data suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could pause rate cuts in January. XAUUSD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Fed will announce its interest rate decision today at 7:00 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the central bank to cut its base interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). However, the main focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's commentary as market participants try to get more clues on the U.S. monetary policy path for 2025, especially in the light of President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plan, which economists say would stoke further inflation. The Fed will also release its latest economic projections and the dot plot, providing valuable insights into the central bank's future policy direction. Typically, the market moves not because of the decision itself but because of the new details revealed in the FOMC Statement and during the press conference, due at 7:30 p.m. UTC. If the Fed downgrades its economic forecast and Jerome Powell hints that more rate cuts are coming, XAUUSD will rise. If the FOMC Statement includes better economic assessments and Jerome Powell makes hawkish statements or sounds less dovish than the market expects, XAUUSD may drop significantly. ‘Spot gold may retest support at $2,633 per ounce; a break could trigger a drop into the $2,613 to $2,623 range’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 The U.S. economy's strength pressures the euro The euro (EUR) lost 0.2% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the greenback strengthened against most major currencies following better-than-expected retail sales data. 👉 Possible effects for traders Yesterday's U.S. Retail Sales report indicated that the underlying economic momentum in the U.S. is resilient, defying expectations of a slowdown. Strong economic data, coupled with expectations of potentially rising inflation from Donald Trump policies, leads investors to expect fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is already just 1% below a two-year high, meaning that many bullish factors are already priced in. 'The market is trying to debate whether it's time to fade the dollar, which has had an incredible run this year. But it seems hard to really push back against U.S. exceptionalism and a stronger dollar going into the new administration, whether we're talking about a Fed that will probably not seem as dovish as did in September or the challenges that keep popping up in the emerging and developed markets that make the dollar a safe haven', said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street. At the same time, the European Central Bank (ECB) has explicitly stated that more rate cuts are highly likely. 'If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear, and we expect to lower interest rates further', Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, said in a speech in Vilnius. By mid-2025, investors expect U.S. interest rates to be in the 4–4.25% range and anticipate the ECB to reduce borrowing costs towards just 2% over the same period. This divergence in monetary policy expectations between two central banks continues to exert a bearish pressure on EURUSD. EURUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the Fed's interest rate decision due at 7:00 p.m. UTC. Attention is also on the Fed's updated economic projections and the dot plot, which could shift expectations for the rate trajectory through 2025 and 2026. If the FOMC statement adds hawkish details, EURUSD will likely fall below the important 1.04500 level. Conversely, dovish rhetoric by Jerome Powell may temporarily pull the pair towards 1.05770. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 USDJPY declines ahead of two central banks' interest rate decisions USDJPY declined by 0.043% ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decisions. 👉 Possible effects for traders The BOJ is expected to maintain its policy rate of 0.25% at its meeting this week while focusing on domestic wage and price dynamics in light of uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies. However, the central bank can't exclude a possible rate increase if the Japanese yen (JPY) weakens significantly, as the USDJPY exchange rate is currently hovering just below the 154.000 level. During the meeting, the BOJ will also review its past monetary policy decisions and assess its strengths and weaknesses. Additionally, the bank may announce plans to begin reducing its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings in 2026. As indicated by the December Tankan Survey, positive signs in the labour market support expectations for wage increases in 2025. If wage-price dynamics continue, the BOJ could raise interest rates in January, reaching 1% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the Fed is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) with a 97% chance, bringing it to the 4.25–4.5% range, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Market participants will pay close attention to how the Fed expects to reduce rates further in 2025, given recent strong inflation and economic activity data. The regulator may indicate a more moderate path by adjusting its projections, expecting only three rate reductions in 2025 instead of four, according to a report by IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. If the forecast shows only two reductions, it could be considered a more hawkish move, aligning with current market expectations but also indicating a more cautious approach. Tuesday's data indicated a robust U.S. economy, with retail sales exceeding expectations. With the incoming Trump administration promising tariffs and tax cuts, investors are considering their implications for the U.S. monetary policy outlook. USDJPY was declining during Asian and early European trading hours. The BOJ and the Fed interest rate decisions are the most important events today. The U.S. central bank will announce its decision at 7:00 p.m. UTC today, and the BOJ will deliver a decision at 3:00 a.m. UTC on Thursday. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

EURUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart EURUSD broke the resistance level of 1.05070 👉Level explanation EURUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.05100. Set your stop loss at 1.04950 below the previous low ($1.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.05300 ($2.00 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.33. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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📊 XAUUSD moves sideways ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision Gold (XAU) held above the $2,650 support level on Monday ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision as market participants assessed the monetary policy outlook for 2025. 👉 Possible effects for traders The Fed is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 4.25–4.5%. However, there is uncertainty about the extent of future reductions, particularly in light of the prospect of higher inflation under the new administration. The latest S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) data revealed that U.S. private sector activity expanded faster in December. This suggests that the Fed may limit rate cuts in the coming year, which could dampen demand for the precious metal. A surge in service industries primarily drove the growth, while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle. Still, XAUUSD has gained about 29% this year, positioning for its largest annual gain since 2010. The rise has been driven by U.S. policy easing, strong demand for safe-haven assets, continued global central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions. XAUUSD continues to hold above the $2,650 support level during Asian and early European trading hours. The U.S. Retail Sales report will come out at 1:30 p.m. UTC and may affect gold. Higher-than-expected numbers will bring the pair below the $2,650 support level, while softer data will ease the pressure on the pair. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Euro gains ground amid political news and anticipation of the Fed meeting The euro (EUR) gained 0.33% on Monday despite the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remaining near a three-week high as traders awaited the Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings this week for clues on the possible interest rate path in 2025. 👉 Possible effects for traders Yesterday, the euro was bombarded with a series of political and economic news. First, Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, lost a parliamentary confidence vote, meaning that Germany will now hold snap federal elections as early as February. Typically, the market doesn't like political uncertainty, but traders viewed the news as positive because it would allow the establishment of a new and possibly more effective government. Second, eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), released by S&P Global, were generally better than expected. The services industry grew and offset a long-running contraction in the manufacturing industry. At the same time, Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, said on Monday that the ECB will cut interest rates further if inflation continues to ease towards its 2% target. Overall, EURUSD is at a crossroads, and this week's Fed decision and U.S. inflation data will play a key role in determining the pair's direction for the rest of the year. The markets are certain the Fed will announce a 25-basis-point cut at its policy meeting on Wednesday. The CME's FedWatch tool puts the probability of such a cut at almost 97%. 'I don't think the debate is whether the Fed cuts or not; it's always about forward outlook', said Eugene Epstein, head of structuring for North America at Moneycorp. EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The U.S. Retail sales report, due at 1:30 p.m. UTC today, may add some volatility to all USD pairs. Higher-than-expected figures may push EURUSD towards 1.04740. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pull the pair above 1.05340. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 AUDUSD stays low ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision The Australian dollar (AUD) held steady on Monday, as the near-term outlook for the currency depended on the prospects for U.S. interest rates. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) decreased towards approximately 106.7, as investors took a cautious approach ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting. 👉 Possible effects for traders This week's key event is the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the range to 4.25–4.5%. The most significant data of the meeting will be the guidance on future easing measures. Due to concerns about the potential resurgence of inflation, especially with Donald Trump's impending return to the White House, market expectations for additional reductions in 2025 have decreased. Futures indicate only two rate reductions the next year. Also, the latest S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) data revealed stronger-than-expected growth in private sector activity this month. Service industries strengthened while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle. In Australia, a recent Westpac survey indicated a decrease in consumer confidence during December, with a more pessimistic outlook on the overall economic situation. Also, market participants are awaiting the Australian government's budget announcement, which is anticipated to reveal larger fiscal deficits. Weakened economic activity in China, Australia's largest trading partner, has contributed to the deficits. On Tuesday, the three-year government bond yield fell by 4 bps, towards 3.84%, following an upward trend for four consecutive weeks. The ten-year bond yield also declined by 2 basis points, towards 4.3%. AUDUSD continues to move sideways within a range of 0.63500–0.63800 during Asian and early European trading hours. The U.S. Retail Sales report, coming out at 1:30 p.m. UTC, may affect AUDUSD today. Higher-than-expected data may push the pair downwards towards 0.63500, while softer data may support AUDUSD. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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After hitting a two-week low against the U.S. dollar, the yen bounced back as wholesale inflation data surprised markets. Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 3.7% in November, beating the 3.4% forecast and marking the fastest annual growth since July 2023. Trade Currencies: https://bit.ly/attexpertoption

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