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📊 Gold rises due to persisting safe-haven demand
Gold (XAU) price rose 0.8% on Tuesday as safe-haven demand remained strong amid growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed trade tariffs and their impact on the global economy.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Apart from the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. trade policy, a weaker-than-expected U.S. Consumer Confidence report also boosted the gold price yesterday. In addition, the recovery may have also been due to a technical rebound in other assets following a technical downturn in the previous session. 'I think some of the biggest factors are Trump's comments yesterday in regards to tariffs ... and right now, the correlation with gold is a basket of geopolitics and inflation expectations', said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
Yesterday, Donald Trump announced his intention to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel, aiming to encourage producers to manufacture these goods in the U.S. Investors view these policies as potentially inflationary and fear they could spark trade wars, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold. Fundamentally, gold remains in a bullish trend. 'We're not even that far away from all-time highs, so the upward momentum is there, we just need some kind of trigger to get it going', said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
XAUUSD was flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's important event is the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, due at 7:00 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the Fed to leave the rates unchanged. The main focus will also be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's commentary as markets analyse the perspective of the U.S. monetary policy for 2025. The market usually moves not because of the decision but because of the new details revealed in the FOMC Statement and during the press conference. If the Fed downgrades its economic forecast and Powell hints that more rate cuts are coming, XAUUSD will likely rise significantly. If the FOMC statement includes better economic assessments and the Fed chair makes hawkish statements or sounds less dovish, XAUUSD may drop slightly.
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📊 Strong U.S. dollar continues to pressure euro
The euro (EUR) lost 0.6% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the greenback strengthened on fresh tariff threats from the Donald Trump administration and despite weaker-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic reports.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday's data revealed that U.S. durable goods orders plunged by 2.2% in December instead of the expected 0.6% rise. However, non-defense capital goods orders—a key indicator of business investment plans—increased by 0.5%, following an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in November. In addition, Trump's threats to impose tariffs drove investors back into the safe-haven greenback. 'I think that there are two stories here that happened simultaneously, and one is kind of wearing off. The issues in the AI space were initially risk-off from an equity viewpoint. And that led the U.S. dollar to appreciate against basically all high beta currencies and the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc did OK in that world because they're safe havens. Then came Trump's comments on tariffs, which affected currencies differently', said Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.
Additionally, EURUSD may have pulled back due to technical factors as the pair failed to confidently break above and close above the critical 1.05000 level for two consecutive days. Fundamentally, EURUSD remains in a bearish trend as investors continue to expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to pursue a looser monetary policy in 2025 compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed).
EURUSD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders will monitor the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision at 7:00 p.m. UTC. Markets expect the Fed to leave the rates unchanged. The most important is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's commentary on the central bank's plans for U.S. monetary policy in 2025. If the Fed downgrades its economic forecast and Jerome Powell hints that more rate cuts are coming, EURUSD will likely rise significantly. If the FOMC statement reveals better economic assessments and Jerome Powell is hawkish or less dovish than the market expects, EURUSD may drop slightly.
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📊 Canadian dollar declines ahead of two interest rate decisions
The Canadian dollar (CAD) lost 0.19% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday as markets anticipated a Bank of Canada's (BOC) interest rate cut. Also, renewed concerns over potential U.S. trade tariffs strengthed the greenback.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday, Donald Trump said he was considering imposing tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel to encourage producers to manufacture these goods in the U.S. Previously, the president threatened to introduce 25% duties on imports from Canada on 1 February. 'The loonie (CAD) continues to trade in limbo, awaiting the crystallisation of U.S. tariff risks. We continue to think that the president will follow through on his tariff threats, which should see a sharp loonie sell-off come Monday', said Nick Rees, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd.
Fundamentally, there is not much of a divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada. Markets expect both banks to deliver roughly two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025.
USDCAD was flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, USDCAD will probably experience above-normal volatility as two central banks announce their interest rate decisions. Traders expect the BOC to cut the rate by 25 basis points and the Fed to leave the base rate unchanged. The main focus will also be on monetary policy statements and any new details revealed during the press conference. BOC press conference is due at 3:30 p.m. UTC, while the Fed chair will speak at 7:30 p.m. UTC. Generally, the market expects a hawkish Fed and a dovish BOC. Thus, any details and comments contradicting the market’s dominant view may provoke a sharp move in currency pairs.
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The Fractal Indicator is a key tool in technical analysis for identifying potential market reversals. By highlighting recurring patterns across various time frames, it helps traders spot critical price levels where the market might change direction. With this insight, traders can better plan their entry and exit points, leading to more informed trading decisions.
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On January 1, 1999, the euro was officially launched as a shared currency by 11 European countries, marking a significant milestone in economic and political integration. It was first adopted for electronic transactions and financial markets, with physical euro banknotes and coins introduced three years later in 2002.
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BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD formed a bullish Flag pattern
👉General outlook
BTCUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays the Flag pattern.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 102,800.00.
Set your stop loss at 102,388.00 below the previous low ($4.12 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 103,218.00 ($4.18 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.01.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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