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📊 Bitcoin drops as risk appetite weakens
Bitcoin (BTC) fell slightly on Thursday but remained within a narrow trading range, as speculation over potential U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict kept investors cautious. Geopolitical uncertainty has dampened appetite for riskier assets, with traders remaining cautious amid fears of a broader regional escalation.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Adding to the cautious sentiment, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was relatively hawkish at its last monetary policy meeting. The central bank left interest rates unchanged and offered no clear commitment to easing in the near term. Moreover, it revised its outlook for 2026, now anticipating fewer rate cuts than previously expected. This further pressured riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also warned that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could increase inflation in the coming months. This inflationary risk reduces the likelihood of aggressive monetary easing, reinforcing a bearish tone across markets. As a result, broader risk-driven assets pulled back following Powell's remarks. The crypto market, including Bitcoin, saw limited upside amid the heightened uncertainty.
BTCUSD continued to fall during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so traders should monitor potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict. Key levels to watch are support at $103,000 and resistance at $106,000.
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📊 Euro awaits Trump's decision on operation in Iran
The euro (EUR) grew slightly towards around 1.15000 on Thursday, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with the potential for direct U.S. involvement, continued to drive risk aversion in global markets. Geopolitical turmoil prompted investors to favour the U.S. dollar despite the minor pullback.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady earlier in the week and reiterated its data-driven stance amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation could rise in the near term, fuelled partly by the inflationary impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. The Fed also revised its economic forecast, projecting slower economic growth and affirming expectations for two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025. Investors now await key economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the Conference Board's leading indicators, for further clues on the U.S. interest rate path.
EURUSD rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so volatility is likely to be low. Still, investors should closely monitor potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict. Reports suggest Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran, offering a final opportunity to negotiate an end to its nuclear ambitions. While a decision on possible military strikes has been deferred for up to two weeks, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome has added to market volatility. Key levels to watch are support at 1.14500 and resistance at 1.15500.
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📊 Gold approaching one-week low
Gold prices (XAU) remained relatively unchanged on Thursday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady this week but projected two rate cuts before the end of the year. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation could be stubborn due to ongoing tariff tensions. The Fed's latest projections also indicated slower economic growth, higher inflation, and weaker employment in 2025. Persistently high inflation may limit the central bank's ability to ease monetary policy aggressively, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Gold prices dropped during the Asian and early European trading sessions, marking the first weekly decline in three weeks. The downturn came as investors offloaded gold to cover losses in other markets amid intensifying geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. Safe-haven demand appeared to weaken despite rising tensions due to liquidity concerns.
The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated further, with Israel intensifying strikes on strategic and government locations in Tehran. This followed reports of an Iranian missile strike hitting a major hospital in Israel. The geopolitical uncertainty deepened as attention turned to Washington, where U.S. President Donald Trump was reportedly considering direct military intervention against Iran, with a final decision expected within two weeks. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,340 and resistance at $3,400.
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GBPJPY closed below EMA21 after failing to close above the key resistance at around 196.00. The price hovers around the ascending trend line and is between both EMAs, indicating sideways movement.
If GBPJPY closes below the ascending trend line, the price may continue to plunge to the support at 192.70.
On the contrary, breaching above the resistance at 196.00 may prompt revisiting the following resistance at 199.50.
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📊 Dovish rhetoric puts downward pressure on gold
Gold prices (XAU) fell towards $3,370 on Wednesday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish statements.
👉 Possible effects for traders
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the benchmark fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.5% while acknowledging that economic uncertainty has somewhat eased but remains elevated. Notably, the committee dropped previous remarks of a rising risk of both higher unemployment and inflation, signalling a more balanced, though still cautious, policy stance. The Fed Chair warned that inflation is expected to rise significantly in the coming months, largely due to the recent increases in trade tariffs. He noted trade tariffs could have more persistent effects on price levels than previously anticipated.
In its updated projections, the FOMC revised its 2025 U.S. GDP growth estimate towards 1.4%, from 1.7% in March, reflecting growing concerns about economic momentum. At the same time, the central bank raised its 2025 core inflation forecast towards 3.1% from 2.8%, underlining the impact of external cost pressures, including trade-related factors. The Fed's dot plot maintained its outlook for two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with a median fed funds rate projection of 3.875%. While the Fed remains open to easing, it proceeds cautiously in the face of evolving inflation dynamics.
XAUUSD continued to fall during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful, but traders should monitor any developments around trade tariffs. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,360 and resistance at $3,400.
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6 065
📊 Euro consolidates after Fed interest rate decision
The euro (EUR) remained unchanged on Wednesday, consolidating near 1.15000, as markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and economic forecasts.
👉 Possible effects for traders
As expected, the Fed held interest rates steady but emphasised a cautious, data-driven approach. This stance supported the U.S. dollar, particularly as investors reassessed the likelihood of near-term monetary easing in light of persistent inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the risk of higher inflation in the coming months, attributing part of the potential increase to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariff policies. These measures could increase import costs, complicating the Fed's task of balancing inflation control and economic support. While Powell refrained from committing to a specific rate path, his remarks reinforced the view that the Fed will remain flexible in response to evolving economic data.
In a notable shift, the central bank downgraded its U.S. growth outlook and projected two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, catching markets off guard. Many traders had anticipated only one cut, prompting a swift repricing across interest-rate futures. Despite the dovish forward guidance, the U.S. dollar remained resilient, buoyed by its relative yield advantage and safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical uncertainty.
EURUSD rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so volatility is likely to be low. Still, investors should closely monitor potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict. Some reports indicate that Washington is preparing for a possible military strike on Iran, raising fears of broader regional escalation. Key levels to watch are support at 1.14000 and resistance at 1.15000.
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📊 Japanese yen weakens despite safe-haven inflows
The Japanese yen (JPY) weakened against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday, approaching a three-week low. USDJPY rose as the U.S. dollar (USD) gained strength following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest policy update.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The Fed held rates steady but maintained a data-dependent stance, signalling that monetary policy decisions would depend on economic conditions. Investors interpreted the central bank's cautious tone and emphasis on inflation risks—particularly those from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs—as supportive of the U.S. dollar, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the yen. Safe-haven dynamics also played a significant role in currency flows. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. dollar outperformed the yen as the preferred safe-haven asset. This shift suggests that investors are prioritising yield differentials and USD relative strength over traditional safe-haven behaviour, particularly as the greenback benefits from higher interest rate expectations and stronger economic resilience.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday, reiterating its commitment to a gradual and cautious normalisation path. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that while the bank remains vigilant regarding domestic inflation and external risks, any potential rate hikes would be modest and depend on sustained price pressures. This divergence in policy outlook between the Fed and the BoJ has widened yield differentials, further contributing to the yen's weakness against the U.S. dollar.
USDJPY fell slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so the probability of significant price movements is low. Traders should watch the critically important 145.500 level, as a break above it could trigger a major upward movement.
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