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Here is the list of the global economic events that are happening around the world impacting the financial market. We keep you ahead of the global cues!📈🌏
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🚀 EURUSD rises as Fed's aggressive rate cuts outpace ECB
The euro (EUR) gained 0.61% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday as a worse-than-expected Consumer Confidence report revived hopes for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), weakening the greenback.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Conference Board (CB) report showed that U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in September, falling towards a six-month low of 98.7 from an upwardly revised 105.6 mark recorded in August. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was significantly below the expected 104 as worries over the U.S. labour market health grew while inflation remained a concern for most households. ‘If the Fed follows through with a relatively aggressive easing cycle over the next year, that could shore up consumers' optimism in the state of the economy and keep the economy from a hard landing’, said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide. Indeed, that is exactly what the market expects the Fed to do. The probability of another 50-basis-point rate cut at its next meeting on 7 November has increased to 60.2%.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to gradually ease its policy despite the many economic challenges it faces. ‘I would expect us to continue to gradually reduce interest rates in the coming time, also in the first half of 2025. I don't expect rates to return to the extremely low levels we saw before the pandemic. They will likely end up on a somewhat more natural level’, said Klaas Knot, a Dutch ECB governing council member. Either way, the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed continues to favour the euro, with bulls now targeting a key level of 1.12200—a 15-month high.
Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful. Still, the release of the U.S. New Home Sales report at 2:00 p.m. UTC may add some volatility to USD-related pairs, including EURUSD. Higher-than-expected figures may dent the bullish trend slightly but are unlikely to reverse it. Conversely, lower-than-expected results will almost certainly pull EURUSD higher towards 1.12200.
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🚀 Gold price continues to set new records
Gold (XAU) rose towards a record high on Tuesday as the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence figures were lower than expected.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Weaker U.S. macroeconomic data put significant downward pressure on the U.S. dollar (USD), bringing it closer to its year-to-date low while pushing the gold price towards a new all-time high. Consumer Confidence Index dropped towards 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, while the Present Situation Index declined towards 124.3 from 134.6. A Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) survey showed that manufacturing activity remained weak, with the composite index falling towards −21 in September from August's −19. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing in over a 60% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points at the November meeting.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks from conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election are expected to support XAUUSD. Traders may await clearer signals regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts before placing large orders. This week's key events include speeches from influential Fed members, notably Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Moreover, Friday's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will likely impact USD demand and XAUUSD movements.
XAUUSD touched $2,670 today before pulling back as bulls took profits, with the daily chart showing slightly overbought conditions. Additionally, the current risk-on sentiment fueled by China's new stimulus measures has shifted some demand away from the safe-haven metal. However, a significant corrective drop appears unlikely due to ongoing expectations of more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. The U.S. New Home Sales report today at 2:00 p.m. UTC may trigger some slight volatility. ‘Spot gold may extend gains into $2,675 to $2,689 per ounce, as it has broken key resistance at $2,633’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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Oil prices surged in Asian trade today as tensions in the Middle East escalated, adding a risk premium to crude. 🌍✨ Simultaneously, optimism over recent Fed interest rate cuts boosted hopes for increased economic growth and crude demand. 📈⛽️
Brent crude futures climbed to $74.83/barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $70.41/barrel. 📊🛢 Stay tuned for more economic cues this week as Fed officials speak and key inflation data is released. 🔍💬 #OilPrices #MiddleEastTensions #FedRateCut #EconomicNews
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GBPUSD extended its rally following a rebound above the EMA21 dynamic support. The widening gap between both EMAs indicates the potential for further gains.
If GBPUSD sustains its bullish momentum and breaks 1.3360, the price could rise to 1.3480.
Conversely, a reversal below 1.3360 could prompt a retest of 1.3220.
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