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📊 Analysts expect 2025 to be bullish for gold
The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.57% on Tuesday and continued to rally strongly during the Asian and early European trading sessions earlier today. A weaker U.S. dollar (USD), escalating trade tension, and concerns over global economic growth fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
👉Possible effects for traders
A fiery trade war between the U.S. and China is igniting, with tensions rising. Nvidia, a major technology company, said yesterday it would take $5.5 billion in charges after the U.S. government limited exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China. Meanwhile, China ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. 'Gold will continue to be strong as long as there's uncertainty', said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central. Traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during geopolitical and economic uncertainties, gold has hit multiple record highs this year, gaining more than 25% since the beginning of 2025.
'We believe risk-off purchases for gold are yet to pick up', analysts at ANZ said. They also raised the bank's year-end gold price forecast towards $3,600 and the six-month forecast towards $3,500. Goldman Sachs, a major U.S. investment bank, has also raised its 2025 forecast towards $3,700 amid soaring demand. According to Reuters, financial markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates in June, after a pause in January, and reducing its policy rate by 100 basis points this year. The weak U.S. dollar exerts additional bullish pressure on XAUUSD, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Today, investors await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC for more clues on the interest rate path. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add more volatility to all USD pairs. 'Spot gold may climb into a range of $3,304 to $3,323 per ounce', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 Euro lacks clear trend direction
The euro (EUR) lost 0.6% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday but recovered all losses during today's Asian and early European trading session. The euro strengthened as the greenback weakened amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
👉Possible effects for traders
Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that China has ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing jets after the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering modifying the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries. Overall, the current tariff situation is highly uncertain, so investors remain cautious and continue to sell the greenback, favouring other safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY). As a result, the euro is gaining strength due to the U.S. dollar's weakness.
As for the eurozone itself, the economic outlook remains rather bleak. Yesterday's German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index plummeted to the lowest level in nearly two years. The drop reflected growing concerns over economic uncertainty, escalating global trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and persistent fears of a slowdown of the eurozone economy. Thus, the recent EURUSD rally rests on the loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar rather than on the rise of confidence in the euro. Therefore, traders should be very careful when opening long positions in EURUSD, expecting its further rise.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales reports at 12:30 p.m. UTC and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC. According to Reuters, retail sales in March likely surged by 1.3%, largely because consumers rushed to buy goods before tariffs took effect. As for Powell's speech, traders are speculating whether he will adopt the unexpectedly dovish stance recently or maintain a more neutral, balanced approach. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14230 and support at 1.13000.
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📊 Australian dollar benefits from weakening U.S. dollar
The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.27% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. AUD continued to move higher during today's Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to find support in the 99.700 area and resumed its decline.
👉Possible effects for traders
The brewing trade war between the U.S. and China is considered to be a major bearish factor for AUDUSD. Still, strong capital outflows from the greenback towards alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY) have been supporting the Australian dollar lately. In addition, the latest macroeconomic data from China, a major export market for Australia, were surprisingly higher than expected, improving the prospects for the Australian economy. China's industrial output in March rose by 7.7% from a year earlier, quickening from 5.9% growth in January and February. Also, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in January–March, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 5.1% rise. However, most economists consider these improvements only temporary, as rising tariffs are expected to slow the Chinese economy considerably.
Today, traders should focus on the unfolding trade tariff tensions and monitor any developments related to possible trade negotiations. Today's main event is the speech of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at 5:00 p.m. UTC. If he gives dovish signals and confirms that the U.S. central bank is prepared to cut the rates more aggressively, AUDUSD will likely continue to rise. If Powell gives a more balanced outlook and sounds less dovish than the market expects, AUDUSD may fall. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. may add more volatility to all USD pairs. On top of that, the Australian Employment report will come out at 1:30 a.m. UTC tomorrow and may shake all AUD pairs. The market expects to see 40,000 new jobs added in March. Lower-than-expected figures will likely drive AUDUSD below 0.63120, possibly below the critical 0.62800 level. Higher-than-expected results may pull AUDUSD above 0.63800.
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GBP/CHF — also known as “Sterling Swissie” — shows how the British Pound stacks up against the Swiss Franc. In this pair, GBP is the base and CHF is the quote. Traders watch it closely to gauge the Pound’s strength relative to Switzerland’s currency.
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+6
🧠 Smart traders don't just watch charts—they follow the news
But not every headline deserves your attention.
Here's when news truly impacts the markets:
✅ сentral bank updates
✅ surprise economic data
✅ major geopolitical risks.
And here's when it doesn't:
❌ clickbait
❌ non-economic news
❌ predictable, priced-in headlines.
💡 Use news as insight, not panic fuel.
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📊 Gold dips on profit-taking after a rally
The gold (XAU) price dropped 0.83% on Monday. Investors took profit on their long positions after bullion reached a record high during the previous trading session.
👉Possible effects for traders
Risk sentiment has improved somewhat as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration exempted smartphones, computers, and some other electronics from increased tariffs. Most of these goods are imported from China, so the decision gives investors hope that trade tensions may subside soon. In a statement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce called the move a 'small step by the U.S. to correct its wrong practice of unilateral reciprocal tariffs'. 'Perhaps some relief on the tariff front, with the exemption of some electronics maybe taking some of the safe haven bid out. However, ongoing uncertainty about trade and tariffs, weakness in the U.S. dollar and softer yields tend to be supportive for gold', said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Indeed, Trump said he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors later this week, keeping market participants on edge.
Over the past month, the traditional role of gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty has been reinforced by the U.S.-China trade war. These tensions prompted investors to buy the metal amidst global market unease. Goldman Sachs, a U.S. investment bank, remained the most bullish major bank on gold. It raised its year-end forecast towards $3,700, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks affecting exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows. According to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs in China increased by 29.1 metric tons in the first eleven days of April, more than during Q1.
XAUUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market focuses on any tariff-related news that may signal shifts in global trade dynamics and impact market sentiment. Also, the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index report will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC and may add more volatility to all USD pairs. 'Spot gold may break resistance at $3,240 per ounce and rise to $3,304', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 Euro pulls back from a strong resistance
The euro (EUR) lost 0.1% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday. The resistance around 1.14200 was a significant barrier for further upward momentum.
👉Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stabilised just below the 100.000 mark as investors struggled to digest the back-and-forth changes on U.S. tariffs. Still, currency markets were calmer yesterday as risk sentiment improved after the White House excluded certain electronics goods from tariffs. Still, U.S. President Donald Trump's latest comments about possible semiconductor tariffs suggest the reprieve will only last a short time. Overall, the brewing trade war has sowed confusion among investors, adding to the geopolitical uncertainty worldwide. Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, said the policy confusion and erosion in investor confidence are fuelling a slow but steady rotation out of U.S. dollar assets.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller warned that trade tariffs form a substantial economic shock. He added that tariffs could necessitate radical rate cuts to avert a recession, even amidst persistent high inflation. Traders are now pricing in a 30% chance of one percentage point rate reduction by the Fed by the end of the year. At the same time, investors don't expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to be particularly hawkish either. The lack of divergence in monetary policy expectations suggests that the recent rally in EURUSD is primarily based on USD weakness as investors flocked into the safety of the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Thus, the euro seems to lack fundamental impulses to continue its rise.
EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Traders continue to focus on any tariff-related announcements that may change the global trade dynamic and affect investors' confidence. Today's German ZEW Economic Sentiment report at 9:00 a.m. UTC may add more volatility to all EUR pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14175 and support at 1.12890.
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3 395
📊 CAD traders await CPI report and rate decision
The Canadian dollar (CAD) remained essentially unchanged against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday. Traders rested after a period of significant volatility, awaiting fresh economic data.
👉Possible effects for traders
USDCAD has declined by more than 6% from its latest peak on 6 February. The decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors. Despite trade tariffs on certain Canadian goods, the absence of new impositions allowed investors to largely factor them into assessments, diminishing their immediate impact on market sentiment. Trade tariffs actually began to negatively impact investors' perceptions of the U.S. economy's prospects, casting a shadow over its future growth potential.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) increasingly dovish stance, signalling a quicker interest rate reduction than anticipated, added further downward pressure to the pair. This contrasts with the Bank of Canada's (BoC) monetary policy stance. The bank is expected to deliver only 50 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts in 2025. However, growing recession risks will likely force the BoC to implement another two rate cuts this year, which may exert upward pressure on USDCAD.
USDCAD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's focus is on tariff-related news that may signal shifts in global trade dynamics and affect market sentiment. CAD traders may avoid opening large orders ahead of today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. In addition, the BoC interest rate decision is on Wednesday, which may add extra volatility to all CAD pairs. A majority of economists expect policymakers to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75%. However, any new details from the post-meeting statement or statements made during the press conference may surprise the market. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.39100 and support at 1.38280.
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Chart: XAGUSD Daily Chart
XAGUSD rebounded to the 30.00 threshold after briefly testing the support at 28.20. However, the price has broken below the trendline, indicating a potential bearish shift.
If XAGUSD breaks below the support at 29.60, the price may retreat toward the following support at 28.20.
Conversely, if XAGUSD breaches above the resistance at 30.60, the price could advance further toward the following resistance at 31.50.
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📈 “Trend is Your Friend” — Ride the Wave, Don’t Fight It
One of the simplest and most powerful trading tips for beginners:
Follow the trend. Don’t trade against the market — let it carry you.
Here’s how to spot and use trends like a pro (even if you’re just starting):
🔼 Uptrend = Higher highs, higher lows
Price is moving up overall. Candles push higher, and dips are quickly bought.
In this case — look for buy (Up) opportunities.
🔽 Downtrend = Lower highs, lower lows
Price keeps falling. Every bounce gets weaker.
Here — look for sell (Down) entries.
🧐 How to check the trend?
Zoom out the chart a bit. If the price is going from bottom-left to top-right — that’s an uptrend.
If it’s sliding top-left to bottom-right — that’s a downtrend. Easy, right?
Tip: Use longer timeframes (like 5m or 15m) to confirm the overall direction, then trade on shorter ones.
Why it works:
Traders around the world follow trends. That’s why riding the wave usually gives you better chances than trying to catch a reversal.
So next time you open Quotex, ask yourself:
Where’s the trend going? Then go with it.
Stick with the trend — and let the market do the heavy lifting!
