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📊 USDCAD moves sideways ahead of the BOC rate decision USDCAD gained 0.07% on Tuesday. The pair was fluctuating near its highs due to the increase in oil prices and anticipation of another significant interest rate reduction from the Bank of Canada (BOC) today. 👉 Possible effects for traders Investors are 88% certain that the central bank will lower interest rates by 50 basis points towards 3.25%, following a similar decrease in October for the first time in 15 years. A steep decrease in interest rates is expected to negatively affect the Canadian dollar (CAD), according to TD Securities analysts. They noted that the position of the U.S. dollar (USD) and short-term values are quite stretched, which may slightly weaken the strengthening currency. However, they maintain a bullish outlook for the U.S. dollar at the beginning of 2025 and expect any dips to be brief and minor. Speculators have significantly increased their short positions in the Canadian dollar. The latest data from 6 December show that the net short position rose towards 159,346 contracts, an increase from 154,002 contracts on 2 December, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Although stimulus measures implemented by China support the price of oil—a key export good for Canada—the future direction of oil prices remains uncertain. USDCAD fluctuated within the 1.416001–1.42000 range during Asian and early European trading hours. Market participants prefer to wait until the U.S. Consumer Price Index report at 1:30 p.m. UTC and the BOC interest rate decision at 2:45 p.m. UTC today before making any decisions. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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📊 XAUUSD hits a two-week high Gold (XAU) price rose by 0.98% on Monday, as Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) reported that it restarted to buy the bullion in November. 👉 Possible effects for traders ‘The market is getting hopeful that we could see other central banks follow suit, and we could see a resumption of record territory buying’, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Official data showed that China's gold holdings rose to 72.96 million fine troy ounces at the end of November, up from 72.80 million a month earlier. The PBOC was the world's largest official sector buyer of gold in 2023. The resumption of its purchases may support Chinese investors' demand, which has been muted since the PBOC paused its 18-month buying streak in May. ‘The resumption will send a signal that the PBOC has grown accustomed to these record high price levels and is prepared to build reserves regardless’, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Meanwhile, political instability in the Middle East—particularly in Syria— supported safe-haven flows into gold. Also, the anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates next week added to the bullish sentiment. XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful. Traders should monitor the developments in the Middle East and rely mostly on technical analysis. ‘Spot gold may break resistance at $2,675 per ounce and rise to $2,696’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Euro moves sideways ahead of key economic U.S. data The euro (EUR) lost 0.15% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data later this week. 👉 Possible effects for traders While markets have priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) next week as a near certainty, investors are waiting for U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday for additional clues. Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth surged in November, but a rise in the unemployment rate towards 4.2% pointed to an easing labour market that should allow the Fed to cut interest rates again this month. The upcoming CPI data will be crucial in confirming or altering these expectations. Fundamentally, EURUSD is in a major downtrend, and investors continue to lack good reasons to buy the euro. At the same time, the fact that EURUSD hasn't dropped towards new lows since 22 November gives hope that a potential currency recovery may be on the horizon. Indeed, China's pledge to embrace a moderately loose monetary policy has boosted European sectors exposed to China, with mining and luxury stocks rising on Monday. EURUSD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although the macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful today, some minor European data released may add a little volatility to the market. German final CPI data is due at 7:00 a.m. UTC, and the Italian Industrial Production report is due at 9:00 a.m. UTC. The most important release this week is tomorrow's U.S. CPI report, so traders will probably refrain from opening large orders in USD pairs today. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 USDJPY gains on uncertainty about U.S. and Japanese interest rate paths USDJPY gained 0.82% on Monday amid ongoing uncertainty about the timing of the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike. 👉 Possible effects for traders The market remains uncertain whether the central bank will raise interest rates in December or January. Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, indicated that a rate increase is likely in the near future, as the economy is performing as expected. However, another member of the BOJ board, Toyoaki Nakamura, expressed concerns about unsustainable wage growth and other indications of economic weakness, adding to the overall uncertainty. Still, recent data shows that Japan's economy expanded by 0.3% over the three months ending September, exceeding initial estimates and expectations. With stronger-than-expected wage numbers reported last week, these economic indicators suggest that the BOJ may be more likely to alter its policy stance. Data released on Monday showed that U.S. inflation expectations for the next year increased towards 3% in November, up from 2.9% in October. This indicates that people remain concerned about persistent price pressures. Additionally, last week's figures revealed stronger-than-anticipated job growth in November. Still, the U.S. unemployment rate rose towards 4.2%, indicating a softening of the labour market that could allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates again this month. According to Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst, one of the primary market themes at present is the risk of persistently high inflation and the possibility that the Fed may not reduce rates significantly in the coming year. Despite these mixed signals, market participants expect an 86% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points this month. However, the future outlook for 2025 remains highly uncertain. USDJPY has been declining during Asian and early European trading hours. Today the Japanese Producer Price Index will come out at 11:50 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures will be negative for USDJPY, while lower data may support the pair. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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