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GBP gains 5% in strong April's rally
The British pound (GBP) gained 0.63% on Thursday as the U.S. dollar (USD) continued to fall. Still, the U.K.'s economic performance remains subdued.
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Possible effects for traders
The International Monetary Fund downgraded the country's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.6% towards 1.1%, citing global trade turmoil and domestic fiscal constraints. U.K. inflation temporarily rose towards 3.1% due to higher energy prices but is expected to fall towards 2.2% in 2026. The Bank of England (BoE) is considering additional interest rate cuts, which could limit the potential for further GBP appreciation. Thus, despite the current GBPUSD growth, the pair's prospects remain uncertain due to domestic economic challenges and external trade risks.
Jonathan Moyes at Wealth Club said, 'The U.K. economy is not out of the woods yet. There is a long and swinging road to reach the bank's 2% inflation target. Services inflation remains stubbornly high, largely due to higher housing costs, including higher rents and council tax. The rise in the energy price cap is also set to see inflation jump in April.' He also added, 'whisper it quietly though, were it not for a global trade war, the U.K. consumer would be in excellent shape. Wage growth is running at 5.6%, a further three interest rate cuts this year will drive mortgage rates lower, food inflation is slowing, as is eating out and travelling. Plus, with the oil price in the low $60-a-barrel range, energy prices look to have peaked.' Finally, he commented that 'if the UK can escape the worst of the global trade war, it might not all be doom and gloom for the U.K. consumer this year, and we haven't said that for a while'.
GBPUSD declined during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Despite the negative analysts' forecasts, who assumed that U.K. retail sales in March would decrease by 0.3% compared to the previous month, the growth continued and amounted to 0.4%. The impact of this data on GBPUSD could be significant. As
http://Forex.com notes, 'data from the U.K. could put pressure on the British pound if the retail sales report points to a slowdown in the economy.' If the market continues to receive positive signals, the BoE may reconsider the need for an interest rate cut in 2025. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.33500 and support at 1.32000.
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