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📊 Fed interest rate decision may outline USDJPY trend The Japanese yen (JPY) attempted to rise towards 150.000 against the U.S. dollar (USD) yesterday but failed and finished the day essentially unchanged. 👉 Possible effects for traders Just a few hours ago, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would keep its key interest rate unchanged, highlighting policymakers' cautious approach. They prioritise carefully assessing the potential impact of escalating global economic risks, particularly those from increased U.S. tariffs, on Japan's delicate economic recovery. USDJPY rose in the immediate aftermath of the decision, though moves in the currency became slightly more volatile shortly after. 'The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged itself is not a surprise, so its impact on exchange rates is limited. However, the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement seems to have led financial markets to initially interpret that the BOJ didn't consider bringing forward a rate hike', said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC. Fundamentally, investors expect the central bank to deliver at least two 25-basis-point hikes later this year. The probability that Japan's base rate will rise towards 1% by December 2025 currently stands at 26%. It's reasonable to expect that the broader bearish trend in USDJPY, which began in mid-January 2025, will likely persist in the medium term. USDJPY was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders will focus on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the policy rate to remain unchanged in the 4.25–4.50% range. New details in the FOMC Statement and during the press conference may outline the U.S. dollar trend. If the Fed downgrades its economic forecast and Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, hints at more rate cuts, USDJPY will likely fall below 149.000. Otherwise, with less dovish or hawkish comments and statements, USDJPY may rise above 150.700. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

#economic_calendar These events may affect the market on 19 March. 🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!

📅 Wednesday, 19 March, 6:00 PM UTC 💥 The Fed Interest Rate Decision is coming! 🔹 Expected: No change (4.25–4.50%) 🔹 Key: Powell’s comments, economic outlook and dot plot A hawkish Fed could send USD soaring and gold tumbling A dovish Fed could weaken USD and push gold higher Stay ahead—trade in the Octa app

👉General outlook GBPJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 194.520. Set your stop loss at 193.900 below the previous low ($4.14 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 195.140 ($4.14 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. @octa_analytics

📊 Gold sets a new all-time high The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.57% on Monday. XAUUSD finished the day above the $3,000 milestone for the first time in history as investors continued to buy the bullion amid economic uncertainty. 👉 Possible effects for traders XAUUSD has been in a strong bullish trend since mid-December 2024. Growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, concerns over trade tariffs, the anticipation of potential shifts in Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy, and heightened U.S. recession risks in the U.S. have driven investors to safe-haven gold. Gold doesn't provide any passive income, but it's considered a hedge against macroeconomic and political uncertainty and tends to thrive in a low-interest environment. 'Should economic data continue to soften and the global tariff war escalates, gold will continue to benefit', analysts at Heraeus Metals wrote in a note. The Fed will release its updated economic projections this week, providing insights into how the central bank perceives the economic uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's policies. 'I expect some consolidation in gold prices... Right now, the market is in a "wait-and-see" mode ahead of the Fed’s decision', said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Meanwhile, the White House has confirmed that Donald Trump plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and discuss ending the war in Ukraine. XAUUSD may decline below $2,960 if tangible progress and peace prospects are reached. XAUUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should monitor any developments around global trade tariffs and Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The key macroeconomic event is tomorrow's interest rate decision by the Fed and FOMC Economic projections. 'Spot gold may climb to $3,040 per ounce, driven by a powerful wave', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊 Euro benefits from weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data The euro (EUR) gained 0.39% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday. Still, it failed to break above the critically important 1.09300 level even as the lower-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales report weakened the greenback. 👉 Possible effects for traders U.S. retail sales rose by less than expected in February, the U.S. Census Bureau reported yesterday. Consumers cut their spending on non-essential items, revealing economic concerns related to trade tariffs and federal job cuts. 'This report should alleviate concerns that the economy already is shrinking, but the risk of much weaker growth, as consumers seek to rebuild a savings buffer in response to concerns about job security, now looks elevated', said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump's trade tariffs raised concerns about inflation, job losses, and reduced income, all threatening consumer spending. The administration's federal workforce cuts are also expected to dampen spending further. Personal consumption drives the U.S. economy, accounting for around 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be more willing to cut rates to support economic growth and stabilise consumer confidence. U.S. manufacturing data and business investment also show signs of slowing, prompting the Fed to carefully assess the economic landscape and adjust its policies accordingly. Weaker U.S. economic indicators have contributed to strong EURUSD growth. According to Reuters, currency markets have shifted in recent months. Traders reevaluated their initial expectations that Trump's economic policies would support the U.S. dollar and weaken other currencies. The reassessment has prompted the greenback to retreat by 6% against the euro since mid-January. 'I think the market just called it wrong. They were leading on the tax cuts and deregulation to boost growth, at the same time creating a sort of risk-averse mood. Actually, the focus has been much more on the protectionism, sending people's heads spinning', said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group in London. EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Traders should stay alert for new developments around global trade tariffs and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the German Zew Economic Sentiment report at 10:00 a.m. UTC today may add extra volatility to the market. Higher-than-expected figures may finally push EURUSD above the critical 1.09300 level. Conversely, lower-than-expected numbers may trigger a pullback towards 1.08750. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊 Weaker U.S. dollar pushes Canadian dollar higher The Canadian dollar (CAD) gained 0.57% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday as the greenback weakened amid concerns about possible U.S. economic recession. 👉 Possible effects for traders There are 'no guarantees' there won't be a recession in the U.S., although there could be an adjustment, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview. The recent decline in U.S. stocks made investors increasingly anxious about potential economic headwinds and the long-term stability of their U.S. dollar-denominated portfolios. Uncertainties arising from U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, including tariff threats against the biggest U.S. trading partners, are prompting investors to sell the greenback. Yesterday, the U.S. Retail Sales report showed only a modest rebound in sales in February after a revised 1.2% decline in January, further damaging the U.S. dollar. The market is now pricing in about 60 basis points (bps) worth of cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. At the same time, interest rate swaps market data implies a 34% chance of 50 bps worth of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) over the same period. While a broader trend in USDCAD remains bullish, the bears are gaining momentum, showing increasing signs of strength and potentially signalling a shift in the short-term direction. USDCAD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market focuses on the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The market expects a 0.6% rise in monthly headline inflation and a 2.2% annual increase. Higher-than-expected figures will likely push USDCAD below 1.42400. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pull the pair above 1.43500. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

#economic_calendar These events may affect the market on 18 March. 🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!

Predicting the market? Easier said than done! Every trader has been there — you analyse, you strategise, you feel confident... and then the market does the exact opposite. Market moves can be unpredictable, but a solid risk management plan keeps you in the game. Stick to your strategy, stay disciplined, and remember — trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 😂 Follow @octa_analytics for trading content

EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart 👉Level explanation EURUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.08984. Set your stop loss at 1.09313 above the previous high ($3.29 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08655 ($3.29 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. @octa_analytics

XAUUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart 👉Level explanation GBPUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,986.94. Set your stop loss at 3,005.32 above the previous high ($18.38 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,968.56 ($18.38 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. 🗒Fundamental factors The U.S. Retail Sales report will be released in a few minutes and could affect this trade. @octa_analytics

GBPUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart 👉Level explanation GBPUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.29450. Set your stop loss at 1.29650 above the previous high ($2.20 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.29230 ($2.20 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. @octa_analytics

📊 Gold rallied past $3,000 but failed to hold above it The gold (XAU) price broke above the critical $3,000 level on Friday but failed to hold above it, finishing the day down by 0.11%. 👉 Possible effects for traders XAUUSD has been in a strong bullish uptrend since mid-December. Investors sought a safe haven from geopolitical uncertainty and economic volatility fueled by U.S. trade tariffs, preferring precious metals. Gold's surge past the $3,000 was driven by 'beleaguered investors seeking the ultimate safe-haven asset given Trump's tumult on stock markets', said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Indeed, U.S. President Donald Trump's most recent threat of a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports intensified the worries about a global trade war. Stocks fell on the news. S&P 500, the U.S. benchmark stock index, has lost more than 8% from its 19 February high. 'Real asset money managers, particularly in the West, needed a strong stock market and economic slowdown scare to return to gold—and that's happening now', said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. According to Reuters, central banks' demand also supported the gold price. China—the key gold buyer—was building its bullion reserves for a fourth straight month in February. In addition, expectations of the monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) also pushed gold higher. Traders now expect the U.S. central bank to resume interest rate cuts in June. XAUUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the focus is on developments around global trade tariffs. Also, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add volatility to the market. Higher-than-expected figures may pause the rally in XAUUSD. Lower-than-expected results may push the pair towards $3,000 again. 'Spot gold may retest resistance at $3,002 per ounce, a break above which could open the way toward $3,017 to $3,040 range,” said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. Goldman Sachs reported an upside risk to its $3,100 end-2025 base scenario and to its $3,100–3,300 forecast range as U.S. policy uncertainty may support investors' demand. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊 Euro rises on weakening U.S. consumer sentiment The euro (EUR) gained 0.25% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday. The greenback weakened following a worse-than-expected U.S. Consumer Sentiment report. 👉 Possible effects for traders The University of Michigan's (UoM) latest report revealed that consumer sentiment plunged to a nearly 2.5-year low in March. Data also showed inflation expectations soared amid worries that President Donald Trump's trade tariffs would boost prices and damage the economy. UoM noted that 'frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future'. Personal consumption accounts for around 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus, low consumer confidence may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates, which hurts the U.S. dollar. At the same time, supporting the consumer via low interest rates may prove difficult if inflation expectations are also rising. 'Trump 2.0 policies are harming the economy and the future prosperity of America. The consumer is frightened and sees sharply higher prices ahead despite the assurances from Washington that trade tariffs are good for the economy', said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. On Friday, the euro received an additional boost after German parties agreed on a fiscal deal that could increase defence spending and revive growth in Europe's largest economy. German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced he had secured the crucial backing of the Greens for a massive increase in state borrowing. 'We expect the German fiscal reform to pass and the ECB holding rates steady in April, a more hawkish outcome than is currently priced in. The USD leg may remain somewhat volatile as U.S. exceptionalism fears wane, but tariffs pose some USD upside risks', said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX Strategy at Nomura. EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, euro traders should focus on any news about global trade tariffs and the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add volatility to all USD pairs. Higher-than-expected figures may push EURUSD down towards 1.08450. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pull the pair towards 1.09150 again. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊 U.K. GDP data disappoints investors The British pound (GBP) lost 0.11% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday after the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report disappointed investors. 👉 Possible effects for traders U.K. GDP fell by 0.1% in January, pulled down by a sharp drop in industrial output compared with December, the Office for National Statistics reported. This unexpected economic contraction has dogged Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' attempts to ignite economic growth. 'Following the lacklustre performance in the second half of 2024, growth remains fragile due to global and domestic uncertainty', said Hailey Low, an economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank. According to interest rate swaps market data, investors currently price in a 34% probability of two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2025. This is roughly the same amount of cuts investors expect from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Expectations of similar interest rate paths could limit substantial movement in GBPUSD, as the relative impact on both currencies might be neutralised. Consequently, traders should closely monitor the economic data and forward guidance from both central banks, as any divergence in monetary policies could trigger GBPUSD volatility. GBPUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, GBP traders should pay close attention to updates on global trade tariffs and developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Additionally, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may increase volatility in all USD pairs. Better-than-expected data may push GBPUSD towards 1.28900. Conversely, lower-than-expected numbers may bring the pair down towards 1.29600 again. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

#weekly_outlook 🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 17 – 21 March from Vito Henjoto. Stay informed and trade wisely.

#webinars_schedule #education 💫 Webinars are now right within the Octa Trading App on your Android device. Download the latest update and master your trading even more conveniently. 🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts. 👋 Join and learn more about trading: 🇵🇰 17/03, 6:30 p.m. PKT – URDU – Live trading session with Mateen Awan 🇮🇩 18/03, 7 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session on OctaTrader with Vito Henjoto 🇮🇩 19/03, 7 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session with Setyo Wibowo 🇬🇧 20/03, 6 p.m. WAT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Tunmise Olaoluwa 🇲🇾 20/03, 9 p.m. MYT – MALAY – Live trading session with Cikgu Danie 🇮🇩 21/03, 7:15 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session with Andre Rizky

#webinars_schedule #education 📱 You can now watch our educational webinars in the Octa Trading App on your Android smartphone. Install the latest version, tap Webinars in the menu, and enjoy fast and easy access to all upcoming and past videos. 🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts. 👋 Join and learn more about trading: 🇵🇰 10/03, 6:30 p.m. PKT – URDU – Live trading session with Mateen Awan 🇬🇧 11/03, 12 p.m. UTC – ENGLISH – Webinar 'News trading. Theory and practice' with Vito Henjoto 🇬🇧 11/03, 9 p.m. MYT – ENGLISH – Live trading session on OctaTrader with Kar Yong Ang 🇬🇧 12/03, 1 p.m. UTC – ENGLISH – Webinar 'News trading. Inflation' with Vito Henjoto 🇬🇧 12/03, 6 p.m. WAT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Ambrose Ebuka 🇲🇾 13/03, 9 p.m. MYT – MALAY – Live trading session with Cikgu Danie