📊 EURUSD rebounds after dropping to a five-month low
The euro (EUR) plunged by 1.82% against the U.S. dollar (USD) yesterday after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.
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Possible effects for traders
The market largely assumes that Trump's policies on immigration, tax, and trade will speed up U.S. economic growth and lead to higher inflation, likely preventing the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates in 2025. As a result, the market has already started to price in a tighter U.S. monetary policy than the eurozone's. Traders are factoring in a 67% chance the Fed will also cut in December, down from 77% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Furthermore, there is a risk that the Trump administration may impose new tariffs on certain European goods. This development will dent the eurozone's exports and slow the economy, potentially forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut borrowing costs more aggressively. At the same time, Trump has stated a preference for a weak U.S. currency. ‘Both this year, but also during his previous stay at the White House, he had essentially challenged the longstanding strong dollar mantra because he prefers a weaker currency to help with exports and American economic activity,’ said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market specialist at trading platform Tradu. This apparent divergence between market beliefs and Trump's goals is a major complicating factor for the greenback's long-term outlook.
EURUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. A technical rebound is expected after the pair dropped to a five-month low on Wednesday, but gains will likely be capped by the strong resistance at 1.07600. Today, the main event is the Fed's interest rate decision, due at 7:00 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the U.S. central bank to cut its base interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). New details revealed in the FOMC Statement and at the press conference may give insights into the future U.S. monetary policy. If the Fed downgrade its economic forecast and Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints that more rate cuts are coming, EURUSD will rise sharply. If the FOMC Statement includes better economic assessments and Jerome Powell makes hawkish statements or sounds less dovish than the market expects, EURUSD may drop and set a new low. In the wake of the U.S. presidential election, the risks of a more hawkish outlook in the FOMC Statement have increased, so traders should be particularly cautious today.
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