📊 Euro remains oversold
The euro (EUR) gained 0.14% against the U.S. dollar (USD) during a rather choppy trading session on Tuesday as markets faced the uncertainty surrounding tariffs President Donald Trump may implement.
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Possible effects for traders
'Volatility is clearly back in a big way, and after the relatively calm term of Joe Biden, FX markets are on a hair trigger for any tariff talk from the Trump administration', said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA. However, any new changes in the U.S. trade policy will likely be implemented only gradually. Although Trump highlighted the possibility of a universal tariff introduction, he also said that the U.S. wasn't ready for it yet. Meanwhile, other officials said that new taxes would be imposed in a measured way. The eurozone is the U.S.'s major trade partner, and its currency is highly sensitive to any changes in trade relations. New tariffs can significantly impact export volumes and economic growth within the eurozone, subsequently affecting the euro's value.
'What you're seeing here, too, is just how crowded long dollar positioning is. All you need is some ambiguity on the tariff front, and you get these kinds of moves', said Erik Bregar, director of FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull. According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report, the euro is one of the most oversold currencies among the majors. As of 14 January, large speculators were holding 225,000 net-short contracts in euro futures, an almost two-year record. Therefore, EURUSD may potentially rebound soon as there are currently too many short positions that may be closed at any moment.
EURUSD was relatively flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful. However, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, will give a speech at the World Economic Forum at 3:15 p.m. UTC. Hawkish remarks will probably push EURUSD higher, possibly above 1.04580. Conversely, a dovish tone may bring EURUSD down towards the major support level at 1.03550.
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