🚀 Strong U.S. data pressures the British pound
On Tuesday, the British pound (GBP) declined by 0.34%, following a relatively stable labour market and resilient services sector U.S. data. This means that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely slow the pace of its interest rate reduction.
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Possible effects for traders
U.S. data showed that the number of job openings unexpectedly increased in November while hiring slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), job openings rose by 259,000 towards 8.098 million on the last day of November. However, hires dropped by 125,000 towards 5.269 million, and layoffs changed slightly to 1.765 million. At the same time, activity in the U.S. services sector accelerated in December, while a measure of prices paid for inputs neared a two-year high, pointing to elevated inflation. The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management increased towards 54.1 in December from 52.1 in November, indicating strong demand. ‘The data definitely supports a pause from the Federal Reserve this month’, said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA. ‘It's likely that the Fed will sit back and wait to cut further, at least until March’, he added.
Investors are also considering whether the tariff policies implemented by the incoming president, Donald Trump, will align with his previous campaign rhetoric. Market participants are considering a scenario where the implementation of broad-based tariffs could lead to increased U.S. inflation. This scenario could lower the chances of a dovish Fed policy and more rate cuts this year, strengthening the U.S. dollar (USD). Investors wonder if Trump's administration intends to revise some of its previous promises regarding tariff measures, as there remains significant uncertainty regarding future changes in U.S. policies.
GBPUSD experienced low volatility during Asian and early European trading hours. Market participants are preparing for the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes today at 7:00 p.m. UTC. The report may give more clues about the future path of the U.S. interest rates.
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