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Gold remains flat ahead of the NFP report
Despite a declining U.S. dollar (USD), the gold (XAU) price was mostly flat yesterday as the market focused on the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll data, causing investors to refrain from opening large positions.
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Possible effects for traders
Meanwhile, trade war anxieties supported gold, keeping it above the crucial $2,900 mark. 'There's still buying interest out there now... there's going to be some measure of caution ahead of Friday's payrolls data, but the underlying trend remains favourable', said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Indeed, worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures have driven gold prices to record highs this year, peaking at $2,956 on 24 February and gaining 11% since the beginning of the year. In an address to Congress, Trump said that further tariffs would follow on 2 April, including 'reciprocal tariffs' and non-tariff actions aimed at balancing out years of trade imbalances.
Additionally, the latest U.S. macro data has been coming out weaker than expected, improving the chances of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and providing further support to XAUUSD. Yesterday's ADP National Employment Report revealed a slowdown in U.S. private payrolls growth in February. Data showed an increase of only 77,000 jobs, substantially below the forecast.
XAUUSD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the focus is on the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, due at 1:15 p.m. UTC. A dovish tone in the ECB statement may boost XAUUSD, whereas a hawkish stance might trigger a minor sell-off. Still, the major bullish trend will likely remain unchanged. A more important event is tomorrow's nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, so market participants will probably be cautious ahead of it. 'If the number comes out really bad, I would imagine gold sells off. If it comes out neutral, I don't think that's going to move the needle too much. But if it comes out bullish, then gold takes off, and we get pretty quick to $3,000, if not higher than that', said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. 'Spot gold is poised to revisit its 25 February high of $2,956 per ounce, as suggested by an inverted head-and-shoulders', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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