Glassnode

Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K. The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves. 📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

#BTC Options Weekly Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action. Check our latest BTC Options Weekly

Across assets, we often see holders with large unrealized losses capitulate near local bottoms. This pattern highlights how distress-driven selling can shape market reversals, a key dynamic now trackable via our Cost Basis Distribution Dashboard. 🔗https://glassno.de/43eVDrm

The Week On-Chain 44, 2025 Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold. Executive Summary - Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase. - Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections. - Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower. - U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure. - The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs. - Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip. Read more in The Week On-Chain new

$RLUSD supply has surpassed $1B for the first time, marking steady growth through 2025. Meanwhile, $USDe supply has fallen ~39% over the past month as onchain yields compressed and incentive-driven demand cooled. 🔗https://glassno.de/4oqMswE

The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now. This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure. 📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban

Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K. The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks. 📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

#Bitcoin stayed rangebound this week as momentum improved, but capital inflows softened. ETF outflows and declining profitability point to ongoing consolidation in a balanced market. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/43KcMJx

Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply. This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands. A process that often demands time or deeper discounts. 📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c

Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows. This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand. 📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows

Short-Term Holders are facing renewed pressure as recent buyers move into a loss. Historically, such periods of STH stress and capitulation have marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors. 🔗https://glassno.de/4oqsJwY

Since early August, XRP price has dropped from $3.3 to $2.4 (-27% 🔽). At the same time, long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 ramped up their spending by ~580%, from $38M/day to $260M/day (7D-SMA) A clear sign of seasoned traders exiting and adding pressure to price action. 📉glassno.de/3WtnfFv

#BTC Options Weekly The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market. Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly

#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level. Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K). 📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS

These investors accumulated heavily between October 2024 (election period) & April 2025, with a cost basis ranging from $70k to $96k, averaging around $93k. A breakdown below the $93k–$96k range would mark maximum pain for this cohort. 📈 https://glassno.de/4qzGXgv

Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation. Around the $126k ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025. 📈https://glassno.de/4oPMJZT

Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B/day (7D-SMA) in mid-July to $2–3B/day by early October. Unlike previous high-spending phases in this cycle, this distribution regime has been gradual and persistent, rather than marked by a sharp spike. 📈 https://glassno.de/3X4EPQc

Yesterday, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of –$93M, highlighting rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand. 📈https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5

The Week On-Chain 43, 2025 Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise. Executive Summary - Bitcoin’s weekend rebound from the $107K–$118K supply cluster mirrored previous post-ATH relief rallies, but sustained sell pressure from long-term holders has limited follow-through. - The market continues to struggle above the short-term holders’ cost basis (~$113K), a critical battleground between bull and bear momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the risk of deeper retracement toward the Active Investors’ Realized Price (~$88K). - Short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain heavy net distributors (~–104K BTC/month), signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption. - Implied volatility has cooled sharply after October’s crash, with skew flattening and options flows reflecting controlled upside and measured downside hedging. - The current calm in volatility hinges on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. A dovish outcome would preserve stability, but any hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and downside protection demand Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

#BTC Futures are still seeing muted activity following the historic wipeout on 10/10. Open Interest is still ±30% off the highs, and Funding is close to neutral. 🔗https://glassno.de/4nEmUek