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Though SOL recently saw an uptick in realized cap growth - a sign of new inflows - and Ethereum plateaued, ETH continues to lead. Over the past month, ETH’s realized cap grew +9.4% vs +4.9% for SOL and +2.6% for BTC.

MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test.

Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k.

The Relative Unrealized Loss of BTC investors sits at just 0.5% - far from the >30% levels typical of bear market extremes. This reinforces that most holders remain in profit, despite growing short-term stress.

Bitcoin trades below the $113.6k and $115.6k cost basis of the 1M and 3M cohorts. With short-term holders under water, rallies may face resistance as these investors seek to exit at breakeven.

Bitcoin is holding above a dense supply cluster between $93k and $110k. This accumulation zone has steadily matured since Dec 2024 and could form a floor - unless sustained sell pressure drives a capitulation event.

The Week On-Chain 34, 2025 Bitcoin trades near $111k, testing key support at $107k–$108.9k. A bounce to $113.6k may face selling from stressed holders, while deeper losses could target $93k–$95k. Losses remain shallow, with spot demand neutral and perpetuals leaning bearish but fragile. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has pulled back to $111k, with support anchored by the $93k–$110k cost basis cluster. A break below $107k–$108.9k could open downside toward $93k–$95k. - Short-term holders remain under stress, making $113.6k a likely resistance as they sell into any bounce. - Unrealized and realized losses remain shallow, far from past bear extremes, suggesting limited capitulation so far. - Spot demand has neutralized, while perpetual futures lean bearish, with funding rates signalling fragile neutrality. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Network Activity Slowing The monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume has declined from $26.7B to $23.2B (~13%), tracking the pullback in price. A break below the yearly average of $21.6B would confirm weakening speculative activity and signal a broader contraction in on-chain demand. Chart here: https://glassno.de/45SYtTk

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.

Bitcoin has now spent 273 days with a super-majority of supply held in profit (above the +1σ band) - the 2nd longest stretch on record, behind only the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. A signal of how extended the current cycle has been relative to history.

Last week, institutional investors broke the multi-week run of inflows into US spot ETH ETFs with -105K ETH in net outflows. However, this week opened on a positive note, with +16.9K ETH added to positions yesterday.

Bitcoin’s rally over the weekend to $117k quickly reversed, leaving the market fragile. This week’s Market Pulse examines the shift from euphoria toward caution, across spot, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain activity. Read it here: https://glassno.de/3HU2QWa

Crucial Support Bitcoin is now trading just above $110.8k, the average cost basis of 1m-3m old investors who accumulated during the May–July rally to new ATHs. Historically, failure to hold above this level has often led to multi-month market weakness and potential deeper corrections. Chart here: https://glassno.de/45RDosE

ETH Holders in Profit With Ethereum hitting a new ATH, the MVRV ratio has climbed to 2.15. This means, on average, investors hold over ~2.15x unrealized gains. This level mirrors prior market structures seen in March 2024 and December 2020, both of which preceded periods of elevated volatility and profit-taking. Chart here: https://glassno.de/3VghiuG

On-Chain Support Levels Using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), the nearest support zone lies between $104k–$108k, where over 1.15M BTC was accumulated over the past year. This dense supply region may serve as a strong support if the market continues to correct. Chart: https://glassno.de/4mWiKOT

Institutional Selling Pressure Recent market weakness has coincided with mounting sell pressure from U.S. spot ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of up to 4.2k BTC, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a massive 111k ETH in outflows, amplifying the broader risk-off tone across the market. Charts here: https://glassno.de/4oJGSWN & https://glassno.de/4mue5E7

The Anatomy of a Local Bottom 1- When the market enters a post-ATH contraction phase, short-term price action is often shaped by how top-buyers react to growing unrealized losses. Right now, a dense cluster of supply, accumulated between $113k and $120k since early July, belongs to investors holding < 3 months. CBD Heatmap: https://glassno.de/4g78UHT 2- To assess <3-month investor behavior, we use the SOPR by Age metric. Currently, their SOPR is hovering around 0.96–1.01, signaling mild loss realization. If pressure builds, local bottoms often form when this group capitulates, typically when SOPR drops below ~0.9. SOPR by Age: https://glassno.de/4p4cgiX

The Week On-Chain 33, 2025 Pressure continues to mount across the digital asset landscape, with broad-based sell-offs hitting major assets. Derivatives activity, in particular, continues to accelerate, leaving the market increasingly sensitive and reflexive in its structure. Executive Summary - Capital inflows into Bitcoin continue to decline, even as a new ATH of $124.4k forms, highlighting weaker investor demand. - Altcoin open interest hit an ATH of $60B, but quickly fell by -$2.6B, marking the 10th largest drop on record. - Ethereum’s open interest dominance is at its 4th highest level, while perpetual futures volume dominance reached a new ATH of 67%. - In prior cycles (2015–2018, 2018–2022), ATHs were reached 2–3 months later than where we are in the current cycle. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

The market is showing signs of contraction following significant profit-taking from investors holding for over 1 month (excluding daily traders). Let’s look at when and how much profit was realized (30D-EMA) across the top 5 assets: Bitcoin (BTC) On July 18, >1-month BTC holders realized over $1.5B in profit, marking the largest profit-taking spike since December 2024. Ethereum (ETH) On August 16, realized profit peaked at $575M, the largest profit-taking spike of this cycle so far. A clear sign of longer-term ETH holders taking risk off the table. Solana (SOL) On August 17, >1-month holders realized over $105Min profit, the biggest profit event since the early 2025 surge. XRP On July 24, profit-taking by longer-term holders spiked to $375M, suggesting strong distribution similar to December 2024 rally. TRON (TRX) August 6 saw a profit realization peak of $230M, highest in Tron’s history, reflecting broader sell pressure across altcoins.

Last week, Bitcoin surged to a new ATH above $123k before retreating toward $114k. This week’s edition of BTC Market Pulse unpacks this slowdown: ETF demand remains strong, derivatives run hot, but on-chain signals point to fragility. Read it here: https://glassno.de/41c4VDB