Glassnode

#BTC is stabilising within the $80K–$95K range as momentum recovers and sell pressure fades. Spot liquidity is thin, open interest is rebuilding cautiously, and options markets point to near-term volatility. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4jq5QIr

The Week On-Chain 50, 2025 Bitcoin remains trapped in a fragile range as heavy overhead supply, rising loss realization, and fading demand cap recovery attempts. Price rejection near $93k and support near $81k define the battlefield, while spot, futures, and options positioning all point to a range-bound, time-driven market. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains confined within a structurally fragile range, with recent rejection near $93k and a gradual drift lower toward $85.6k highlighting persistent overhead supply. Dense distribution between $93k–$120k continues to cap recovery attempts, while failure to reclaim the 0.75 quantile (~$95k) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101.5k keeps upside momentum constrained. - Despite sustained sell pressure, patient buyer demand has so far defended the True Market Mean near $81.3k, preventing a deeper breakdown. This balance reflects a market under time-driven stress, where rising unrealized and realized losses increase psychological pressure on investors. - Spot demand remains selective and short-lived, with limited follow-through across major venues and no coordinated expansion in accumulation during recent pullbacks. Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support. - Futures markets continue to de-risk, with open interest trending lower and funding rates near neutral, signalling a lack of speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging. Leverage is no longer driving downside, but neither is it supporting upside. - Options markets reinforce a range-bound regime. Front-end volatility has compressed post-FOMC, downside risk remains priced but stable, and flows favour premium harvesting over directional bets, with large December expiries pinning price action into year-end. Read more in The Week On-Chain

🔄 Update: With the spot price trading around $86.4K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly: 🔴 STH Cost Basis: $101.8K 🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.9k --- Spot Price: $86.4K --- 🟢True Market Mean: $81.3K 🔵 Realized Price: $56.3K 📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

#Bitcoin rejected at $94K and fell to $87K, weakening momentum as sell pressure rose and liquidity thinned. Derivatives and on-chain signals remain cautious, keeping the market vulnerable to further downside. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4qeiigE

#BTC DATs continue selective but steady BTC accumulation. Flows remain modest compared to late-2024 peaks, yet buying has broadened across miners, tech, and financial firms. Despite volatility, balance-sheet adoption remains a quiet structural tailwind. 📈https://glassno.de/48KEyre

$ETH Spot ETFs are showing the first signs of life after weeks of steady outflows. Modest inflows are starting to return, hinting at easing redemption pressure. A sustained move back into positive territory would signal improving demand into year-end. https://glassno.de/48HBugV

Unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem have recently climbed to ~$350B, including ~$85B in BTC alone. With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead. 📊http://glassno.de/4oRkiua

Liquidity can be assessed through several measures, including the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio (30D-SMA). For Solana, this ratio has traded below 1 since mid-November, meaning realized losses now exceed realized profits. This signals that liquidity has contracted back to levels typically seen in deep bear markets. 📉 glassno.de/3MoCPAt

The Week On-Chain 49, 2025 #Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized loss realization, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, patient demand has kept price anchored above the True Market Mean. - The market’s inability to reclaim key thresholds, particularly the 0.75 quantile and the STH Cost Basis, reflects persistent sell pressure from both recent top buyers and seasoned holders. A near-term retest of these levels is possible if seller exhaustion emerges. - Off-chain indicators remain weak. ETF flows are negative, spot liquidity is thin, and futures positioning shows little speculative conviction, leaving price more sensitive to macro catalysts. - Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated IV, accumulating both wings, and showing consistent demand for downside protection. The surface signals short-term caution but more balanced sentiment across longer maturities. - With the FOMC meeting as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility is expected to decay into late December. Market direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent, or whether the current time-driven bearish pressure persists. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Bitcoin bounced toward $94K, but the market remains unconvinced. Momentum improved and volumes rose, yet Spot CVD and OI fell. Options show demand for downside hedging, while ETF outflows highlight softer appetite. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4a8QGEV

📢 Interpolated IV Metrics Skew is widely used to read crypto options, but it captures only one slice of a much richer volatility surface. Interpolated IV provides a structured view of how the market prices risk across specific deltas and maturities. We’ve expanded our options coverage with standardized IV curves for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB & PAXG, mapped at: • 5D–50D deltas • 1w, 1m, 3m, 6m maturities • Calls & Puts Why does this matter? Raw options data is uneven as strikes are irregular, expiries are thin, and liquidity shifts throughout the day. Interpolation cleans the surface, fills gaps, and provides consistent values at every timestamp. This allows you to: 🔹Pinpoint where the market is paying for downside protection 🔹Track shifts in call-side demand and rotations into higher-beta assets 🔹Compare crash risk across assets 🔹Monitor short-term stress vs longer-term repricing through the term structure 🔹Use clean, stable IV series directly in systematic strategies 📰 glassno.de/48Gquiw

The Week On-Chain 48, 2025 Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning. Executive Summary - Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater. - Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks. - 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk. - ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand. - Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance. - Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling. - Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders. - Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance. Read more in The Week On-Chain

The Week On-Chain 48, 2025 Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning. Executive Summary - Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater. - Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks. - 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk. - ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand. - Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance. - Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling. - Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders. - Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Tune in to our webinar with Keyrock at 4pm CET today, where Glassnode Analyst Chris Beamish and Keyrock Digital Asset Researcher Ben Harvey will unpack the data and market forces behind BTC’s and ETH’s diverging usage patterns. 🔗 Event link: https://lnkd.in/dxjefEaz

The Glassnode x Fasanara Digital Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report is live! 🔗 Download your copy at https://glassno.de/4pIbsQ1. Drawing on Glassnode’s data and analytics and Fasanara’s trading perspective, we outline how market structure has shifted across spot, ETFs, futures, stablecoins, and tokenized assets. From Bitcoin’s spot-driven expansion to the rise of tokenization and decentralized perps, the market is reshaping around new structural anchors. For professionals navigating a fast-changing market, the report offers a consolidated view of the digital asset ecosystem. 📄 Read more on Glassnode Insights → https://glassno.de/3MzXJwk

$Bitcoin shows early stabilisation as RSI rebounds and CVD turns positive, but spot volume, on-chain activity and liquidity remain weak. ETFs see inflows, yet futures de-risk and short-term capital dominates. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/48cCFEP

A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers. 📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC

🔄 Update: With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted: 🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K --- Spot Price: $90.9K --- 🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k 🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K 🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K 📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe