Glassnode

The Week On-Chain 46, 2025 BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has broken below the STH cost basis and the −1 STD band, placing recent buyers under stress; the $95K–$97K region now acts as key resistance, and a reclaim would mark an early step toward restoring market structure. - Spot demand remains weak, with US spot ETF flows deeply negative and no incremental bid emerging from TradFi allocators. - Speculative leverage continues to unwind, reflected in declining futures open interest and funding rates falling to cycle lows across the top 500 assets. - Options markets have sharply repriced risk, with implied volatility rising across maturities and skew remaining deeply negative as traders pay significant premiums for downside protection. - Put-dominant flow and demand at key strikes (e.g., 90K) reinforce a defensive positioning regime, with traders hedging more actively rather than adding upside exposure. - DVOL has returned to monthly highs, tying together the broad repricing of risk across volatility, skew, and flow metrics and signalling expectations for elevated near-term volatility. Read more in The Week On-Chain

#BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained. 📉https://glassno.de/4o6648m

The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53. Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers. 📉 http://glassno.de/48pwOef

Bitcoins' downtrend pushed prices to $93K, with momentum oversold and sell-side pressure easing. Flows and on-chain activity have softened, suggesting early signs of stabilization in the $94K–$100K range. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/49uahz3

At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss 📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn

Long-term #BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory. LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k. https://glassno.de/3XrNOLy

The Week On-Chain 45, 2025 #Bitcoin consolidates above $100k, with support near $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster. - Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand. - A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven. - ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite. - Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins. - Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts. - Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium. Read more in The Week On-Chain

The majority of #Bitcoin supply sits in long-term holder’s hands, while Ethereum shows greater turnover and productive use on-chain. In our joint research with Keyrock, we assess how BTC and ETH supply dynamics shape their respective store-of-value profiles. Grounded in on-chain data, our analysis cuts through the narratives, showing Bitcoin’s dominant savings-asset profile and Ethereum’s hybrid position as both reserve capital and working collateral within DeFI. Read the report for full insights: https://glassno.de/47F7FNu

Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day. This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors. 📉https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5

#Bitcoin futures open interest remains muted following October’s leverage flush, showing little sign of new speculative build-up. Derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment. 🔗https://glassno.de/47Ksfup

Bitcoin has bounced from $100K to $106K, with momentum improving and selling pressure easing. On-chain activity and reduced leverage point to early signs of stabilization after October’s drawdown. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/3LwDkIk

Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K. The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves. 📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

#BTC Options Weekly Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action. Check our latest BTC Options Weekly

Across assets, we often see holders with large unrealized losses capitulate near local bottoms. This pattern highlights how distress-driven selling can shape market reversals, a key dynamic now trackable via our Cost Basis Distribution Dashboard. 🔗https://glassno.de/43eVDrm

The Week On-Chain 44, 2025 Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold. Executive Summary - Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase. - Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections. - Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower. - U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure. - The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs. - Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip. Read more in The Week On-Chain new

$RLUSD supply has surpassed $1B for the first time, marking steady growth through 2025. Meanwhile, $USDe supply has fallen ~39% over the past month as onchain yields compressed and incentive-driven demand cooled. 🔗https://glassno.de/4oqMswE

The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now. This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure. 📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban

Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K. The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks. 📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

#Bitcoin stayed rangebound this week as momentum improved, but capital inflows softened. ETF outflows and declining profitability point to ongoing consolidation in a balanced market. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/43KcMJx

Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply. This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands. A process that often demands time or deeper discounts. 📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c