Glassnode

Bitcoin’s futures funding rates are cooling, now around $366k/hour - near the neutral threshold of $300k/hour for this cycle. A break below this level would signal fading demand and deepen the off-chain divergence from prior bullish phases.

The Week On-Chain 35, 2025 Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104k–$116k air gap after significant absorption by investors. Futures and ETF flows show cooling demand. Strength above $116k could revive the uptrend, while a breakdown risks a move toward $93k–$95k. Executive Summary - Bitcoin trades near $112k, consolidating $104k–$116k. URPD shows dip-buying in $108k–$116k, though further contraction isn’t ruled out. - Breaking below the 0.95-quantile cost basis ended a 3.5-month euphoric phase, placing price back in the $104k–$114k consolidation band. - Short-term holder profitability fell to 42% before rebounding to 60%, leaving the market neutral but fragile unless price reclaims $114k–$116k. - Off-chain sentiment cools: futures funding is neutral but vulnerable, and ETF inflows have slowed, Bitcoin flows were spot-driven, Ethereum mixed with arbitrage. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Average Bitcoin supply per whale (entities holding 100-10k BTC) has been steadily declining since November 2024, now sitting at ~488 BTC per whale - levels last seen in December 2018.

Sizing Up the Dip Trading at $110k, only ~9% of BTC supply is in loss, carrying up to 10% unrealized losses. In contrast, the local bottom of this cycle saw >25% of supply at up to 23% losses, and global bear markets have reached >50% supply with up to 78% losses. This dip remains relatively shallow. Chart here: https://glassno.de/4nepLKZ

Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) shows a clear divergence in spot flows between #Bitcoin and #Ethereum: $BTC spot activity is dense, while $ETH remains sparse with air gaps. This suggests ETH price dynamics may be more influenced by off-chain markets such as derivatives.

Bitcoin Market Pulse BTC pulled back to $107k last week, testing the short-term holder cost basis - a level that often defines near-term sentiment. Spot signals weakened with RSI in oversold territory and volumes down, while futures OI contracted and options skew surged, showing stronger demand for downside protection. ETF flows turned positive with $396M inflows, but participation remains selective. On-chain activity stayed subdued: active addresses fell to 690k, fees remain weak, and realized cap inflows slowed. Transfer volumes spiked to $10.8B, reflecting large entity repositioning rather than broad participation. We also cover holder rotation, ETF MVRV trends, and how fading unrealized profits are reshaping sentiment: https://glassno.de/41wP6aE

US spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant inflows of +286k ETH last week, one of the strongest weekly prints since launch. Despite ETH closing the week near $4.4k, institutional demand via ETFs remains firm.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +3,018 BTC last week. This marked a return to positive flows after the prior week of outflows, bringing renewed support despite choppy price action around $108k.

No altcoin sector outperformed ETH over the past month, though DeFi and Layer 2 came close. Notably, most altcoin sectors ended the period in decline.

Studying total daily USDT transfer volume on Ethereum, shows a clear pattern since the cycle low: each major BTC rally triggered a >250% surge in USDT activity, followed by a cooldown phase as BTC slipped into downward consolidation. Chart here: https://glassno.de/41tDxkA

ETH option skews rotated quickly over the past week. • Aug 22: upside bias (calls richer, 1w -7%). • Aug 25: defensive shift (puts richer, 1w +4%). • Aug 28: neutral (~0% across tenors). Traders rapidly repriced ETH risk from upside to downside and back to balance.

Though SOL recently saw an uptick in realized cap growth - a sign of new inflows - and Ethereum plateaued, ETH continues to lead. Over the past month, ETH’s realized cap grew +9.4% vs +4.9% for SOL and +2.6% for BTC.

MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test.

Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k.

The Relative Unrealized Loss of BTC investors sits at just 0.5% - far from the >30% levels typical of bear market extremes. This reinforces that most holders remain in profit, despite growing short-term stress.

Bitcoin trades below the $113.6k and $115.6k cost basis of the 1M and 3M cohorts. With short-term holders under water, rallies may face resistance as these investors seek to exit at breakeven.

Bitcoin is holding above a dense supply cluster between $93k and $110k. This accumulation zone has steadily matured since Dec 2024 and could form a floor - unless sustained sell pressure drives a capitulation event.

The Week On-Chain 34, 2025 Bitcoin trades near $111k, testing key support at $107k–$108.9k. A bounce to $113.6k may face selling from stressed holders, while deeper losses could target $93k–$95k. Losses remain shallow, with spot demand neutral and perpetuals leaning bearish but fragile. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has pulled back to $111k, with support anchored by the $93k–$110k cost basis cluster. A break below $107k–$108.9k could open downside toward $93k–$95k. - Short-term holders remain under stress, making $113.6k a likely resistance as they sell into any bounce. - Unrealized and realized losses remain shallow, far from past bear extremes, suggesting limited capitulation so far. - Spot demand has neutralized, while perpetual futures lean bearish, with funding rates signalling fragile neutrality. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Network Activity Slowing The monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume has declined from $26.7B to $23.2B (~13%), tracking the pullback in price. A break below the yearly average of $21.6B would confirm weakening speculative activity and signal a broader contraction in on-chain demand. Chart here: https://glassno.de/45SYtTk

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.