Glassnode

During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses. The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse. 📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo

The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels. The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure. A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k). 📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9

#Bitcoin spent the past week rebounding to $70K and stalling into the high $60Ks. The structure still looks reactive, with attempts to recover meeting overhead supply and follow-through remaining limited. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX

The Week On-Chain 6, 2026 Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor. - Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies. - Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through. - Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption. - Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation. - Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades. - Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture. - Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market. 📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr

At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling. • SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now) • Holders are realizing significant losses • On-chain profitability flipped negative This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization. 📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling. • SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now) • Holders are realizing significant losses • On-chain profitability flipped negative This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization. 📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO

#Bitcoin recovers to $69K after sharp downside repricing. Positioning remains defensive across spot, derivatives, and on-chain metrics, with recovery dependent on renewed spot demand. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4bKIxHy

#Bitcoin's Yardstick has fallen to its lowest level on record, pushing valuation into an unprecedented zone. Conditions like this have rarely persisted, often marking periods where downside exhaustion meets long-term opportunity. 📉https://glassno.de/45NLi75

On Feb 04, Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (7D-SMA) hit $889M per day, the highest daily loss realization since November 2022. 📉http://glassno.de/3Mq0ock

The #BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling. These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning. https://glassno.de/3LSM2kJ

The Week On-Chain 5, 2026 The #BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk. Executive Summary - BTC has confirmed a decisive breakdown, with price slipping below key structural support levels and keeping market participants firmly on the defensive. - On-chain profitability has sharply deteriorated, with MVRV Z-Score compressing to its lowest level since Oct 2022, signalling a major reset in unrealised gains. - Realised losses are accelerating, with sustained sell pressure suggesting many holders are being forced to exit at a loss as downside momentum persists. - Spot volume remains structurally weak, reinforcing a demand vacuum where sell-side flows are not being met with meaningful absorption. - Futures markets have entered a forced deleveraging phase, with the largest long liquidation spikes of the drawdown amplifying volatility and downside continuation. - Demand from major allocators has softened materially, as ETF and treasury-linked netflows fade and fail to provide the consistent bid seen during prior expansion phases. Options markets continue to price elevated downside risk, with volatility staying bid and skew steepening as traders pay up for protection. - With leverage being flushed but spot demand still absent, the market remains vulnerable, and any relief rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Hyperliquid positioning tells a clear story: Traders are net short ~240 BTC. Entry heatmaps show shorts added from higher levels, plus fresh shorts opening around $75k and current prices. Meanwhile, long interest remains notably thin. 📉http://glassno.de/4avfCWF

The 3D-SMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss is now at –$317M/day, a regime last observed in December 2022. Loss realization has regained control, liquidity is fading, and patience is being tested. 📉http://glassno.de/4tjaTyH

#Bitcoin fell to $74K after losing the November lows, with 14D RSI deep in oversold. Spot volume rebounded, but looks reactive, signalling churn in downside continuation, not dip buying. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4a91tND

Looking at the cumulative Spent Volume by Long-Term Holders, LTHs have been spending >12K BTC per day on average over the past 30 days — equivalent to ~370K BTC per month. This highlights the scale of gross distribution activity, beyond what net metrics alone capture. 📉http://glassno.de/3Ob5dqo

The Week On-Chain 4, 2026 BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains pinned near key on-chain cost basis levels, where support is being tested, and conviction is required to prevent further structural weakness. - Short-Term Holder conditions remain fragile, with any failure to reclaim key breakeven bands keeping recent buyers vulnerable to renewed sell pressure. - Broader holder behaviour still leans defensive, suggesting this is a consolidation regime driven more by absorption than expansion. - Liquidity remains the deciding variable, as price stability has persisted despite reduced participation, but breakout continuation still needs demand follow-through. - Spot ETF flows are stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows, reducing mechanical sell pressure. - Spot CVD bias is improving across venues, led by Binance, indicating marginal buy pressure is returning, though Coinbase remains comparatively steady. - Perpetual futures leverage remains muted, with funding largely neutral and speculative positioning still cautious and easily shaken out. - Options markets are rotating toward downside protection, with bearish skew, elevated short-dated implied volatility, and dealer gamma slipping below zero, increasing downside sensitivity. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA). A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market. 📉http://glassno.de/4rjg683