Glassnode

The Week On-Chain 13, 2026 No Catalyst, No Range Break Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $70k as spot demand shows early absorption and derivatives reset. Volatility cools and positioning balances, but without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout. Executive Summary - Total Supply in Loss sits near 8.4M BTC, echoing the Q2 2022 structure, when roughly 3M BTC needed to be redistributed before the market could reclaim its cycle mid-line. - Coinbase Spot CVD has turned marginally positive, suggesting spot buyers are starting to absorb sell-side pressure, though demand remains well below the levels typically seen at durable lows. - Perpetual positioning is now far less momentum-driven, with bullish exposure being unwound and short-side interest re-emerging, leaving futures more balanced but also more cautious. Read the full Week On-Chain

The 30D-SMA of total daily transaction fees has declined to 2.5 BTC/day, the lowest level since March 2011. Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network. 📉 glassno.de/3NVcqes

The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow has turned negative since early last week, with 200–500 BTC in net daily outflows. Small in magnitude, but persistent. A quiet signal that institutional demand conviction remains tentative at current price levels. 📉glassno.de/4bJAHgX

🔁UPDATE: The recent rally toward $76k coincided with smaller wallet cohorts shifting toward distribution. 🟥 Broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes remains absent, limiting the sustainability of upward moves. 📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e

#BTC broke back below $70k before finding support near $65k, with a modest rebound back towards $67k into the weekend. Momentum remains tentative, with lower highs still defining the short-term structure. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4m8myxm

BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers' cost basis range ($60k–$70k). Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery. The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude. 📉http://glassno.de/4uYOmbq

📊 Strategy Watch #2 is live glassno.de/47m1Nbe Built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, Strategy Watch returns following strong feedback on the inaugural edition. Inside the new edition: 🔹 All strategy types posted negative returns in February, except for one 🔹 A macro portfolio manager on navigating current geopolitical challenges 🔹 How 300+ managers expect the crypto market to perform over the next three months. And more. 👉 Read the full edition 📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly

The Week On-Chain 12, 2026 Awaiting Liquidity #BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery. Executive Summary - Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation. - US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement. - Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying. Read the full Week On-Chain 👇 https://glassno.de/4sATTn1

New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score. Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating. Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity. 📉glassno.de/4uPYF1e

Glassnode is expanding its macro indicator suite — bringing traditional market data directly into on-chain analysis. This gives investors the tools to find alpha in the cross-analysis of crypto and macro. No more switching between platforms. 📉glassno.de/4d1zUc9

#BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4bDDYwL

Demand Exhaustion Update The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k. Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts. Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events. 📉glassno.de/4bppmCo

A simple 30D MA crossover of BTC price vs. Max Pain generates long/short signals that outperform buy-and-hold over a long time horizon. Exploratory, not prescriptive. But the signal quality warrants attention. Full interactive backtest available in Glassnode Studio👇 📉http://glassno.de/3NFyKsm

Digital assets have matured into a functioning, multi-layered economy that can be measured, analysed, and compared against traditional macroeconomic benchmarks. In a new report with WisdomTree, we examine the blockchain ecosystem through familiar economic and market-structure concepts, focusing on observable activity: • Transaction fees as revealed demand for network utility • Security provisioning through economic commitment via mining (energy) or staking (capital) • Exchanges and custodians as gateways to traditional capital markets • Stablecoins as the primary settlement and liquidity layer • DeFi and tokenization as extensions of on-chain financial activity. Taken together, these components form a financial system that increasingly mirrors traditional markets in structure and function. 📑 Get the report here

Supply Cleared, Conviction Pending Bitcoin has cleared the $59k–$72k supply cluster and entered a thinly accumulated air gap up to $82k. Spot CVD is recovering, ETF inflows are rebounding, and perp funding remains negative — short covering is doing the work here. But currently, only 60% of the supply is in profit, where prior cycles' early bounces were exhausted multiple times before a structural shift. 📰 http://glassno.de/4siuWg1

#Bitcoin rebounded from the $66k higher low, grinding steadily higher through the week with strong daily closes that pushed price back toward $73k. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/3N9wOsa

A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets. Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves. 📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p

For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends. This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets. 📉glassno.de/472oSj4

New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series) Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders. Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution. 📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk

A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater. Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%. Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery. 📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj