Glassnode

hyperliquid:native and $ETH are leading the major crypto assets during today’s rally. Despite many coins showing double digit gains, these two assets are outpacing all other majors today.

Elevated yields keep BTC anchored near cycle lows while gold and oil rally. Price sits below two key cost bases in a shallow capitulation. Perpetual demand improves but US spot lags and volatility compresses. The bottoming process is underway. https://x.com/i/article/2090109283220299776

$500m worth of shorts were just liquidated within minutes. As BTC spiked to over $69k, open interest dropped due to positions being force-closed. It looks like the market was predominantly short for this move up.

Most public $BTC treasuries are underwater. Price is below their aggregate cost basis, and the share of companies sitting at a loss has climbed back toward around 80%

Strong hands are buying $BTC. Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022. The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.

$BTC has held Defensive for two weeks, 30/100 on the Glassnode Market Compass. Macro did the lifting, +24 on the month. Valuation stays at the cycle's discounted end, 16/100. Cheap and improving. The missing leg is flows, light at 30. Read it daily:

$BTC is underperforming the S&P 500 on 2 out of 3 trading days. However, when BTC does outperform, the excess returns (green) are significantly larger. Also noteworthy is that these excess returns have been slowly degrading over the years. https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089442880255607037

$BTC outperformed the stock market today. This has become a less common occurrence lately. 1/2 In fact, BTC only outperformed the S&P500 on around one third of trading days over the last 3 months. This is the longest underperformance streak we've seen over the last 6 years of history. The question now is whether this is the start of a trend or just one of those 3 days. 2/2

$BTC holds near $63.6k as weak spot liquidity, ETF outflows and loss realization keep conditions subdued. Stabilising capital flows suggest selling pressure may be easing, but conviction remains limited. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years. However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money. $BTC simply delivered less movement than people paid for.

Consumer Confidence recently hit an all-time low as the stock market continued to make new highs. This weak sentiment is pushing money out of cash and into equities, AI, and commodities. $BTC has been significantly neglected by this rotation

Did whales go long at the top of the local $BTC range? Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance. Spot and flow data still show no matching demand. Read our latest weekly article "Trigger Happy" for analyses like this👇 https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446

The support under $BTC has started to disappear. The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away. What remains is a much thinner floor. In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇 https://x.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446?s=20

$BTC options remain subdued, with volatility and skew continuing to compress. But positioning beneath the surface is becoming more concentrated around key strikes, creating a clearer setup across the options complex. Here’s what the data shows👇 $BTC implied volatility continues to compress, led by the front end. 1-week ATM IV has fallen toward 26%, while 6-month IV remains near 39%, steepening the term structure as traders price in subdued near-term moves but retain longer-dated uncertainty. https://glassno.de/4qf2mvA 25-delta skew has compressed sharply across tenors, with 1-week skew falling toward ~5%. The decline points to softer demand for downside protection, suggesting options markets are becoming less defensively positioned. https://glassno.de/4gdga5q GEX remains concentrated around spot, with negative gamma clustered through the low-$60Ks and positive gamma building closer to ~$70K. This leaves BTC vulnerable to sharper moves lower, while upside may encounter more stabilising dealer hedging. https://glassno.de/4gh93Zz Wrap up: Overall, options markets are less defensive, but not complacent. Falling IV and skew point to reduced near-term fear, while concentrated gamma and strike activity suggest the $60K–$70K range remains the key battleground for the next directional move.

ICYMI: $BTC futures OI has climbed past a full day of futures volume, just shy of last September's record. Plenty of positions, thin turnover. On a tape this thin, liquidations meet little resistance in either direction. https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446

Sellers are tiring but buyers are absent. However, leverage traders have already pulled the trigger on a recovery the data does not yet support. The market is coiled tightly between converging cost-basis levels on the quietest tape since 2019. http://x.com/i/article/2087578224402591744

Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past $BTC bear markets. According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet. We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.

Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern. Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape. Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios. https://glassno.de/4q7edf4

$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇