Venture Capital

A 1964 prediction about our AI future. ✔️ @venture

📉 Oracle’s Filings Under Scrutiny Michael Burry says Big Tech filings may not show the full scale of AI commitments. Oracle is his main example, with $288B in leases it has not started paying. 🖱️ CEOs sign filings under oath, and lying on them is a crime. 🖱️ The filings do not show how much AI demand comes from companies buying each other’s products. 🖱️ Oracle’s 121% growth figure includes this type of revenue, without disclosing how much. 🖱️ Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle made $400B in profit last year, a fraction of their committed spending. Burry is not calling it fraud. His point is that the truth may not be in the filings. ✔️ @venture

Trump says he is creating an AI Force and will appoint an AI czar. The U.S. will not slow or stifle AI development. AI could eventually account for 25% of U.S. GDP. ✔️ @venture

❤️‍🔥 Coffee Prices Fall 20% Coffee prices are down 20% this year as supply exceeds demand for the first time in 4 years. Brazil, the world's top coffee producer, is behind the surplus, with exports up 40% from a year ago. ✔️ @venture

🥋 BOJ Signals Further Rate Hikes The Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to raise rates to 1.25%. Further hikes will depend on activity, prices, and financial conditions. Underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target as wage growth, rising expectations, a weak yen, higher oil prices, and strong AI-related demand push up selling prices. The economy is recovering moderately, supported by employment, income growth, and AI-related demand. CPI is expected to move clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026, while financial conditions remain accommodative. Governor Ueda’s remarks will be watched for clues on the timing and pace of further hikes. ✔️ @venture

“You don't need a lot of brains in this business…What you do need is emotional stability. You have to be able to think independently: when you come to a conclusion, you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and your reasoning.” Warren Buffett ✔️ @venture

☺️ AMD Chip Prices AMD is reportedly preparing to raise chip prices by ~10% as higher TSM wafer costs flow through to customers. The increases are expected to hit AI accelerators and consumer GPUs in Q4, as advanced-node manufacturing gets more expensive. ✔️ @venture

📉 Treasury Yields Fall After rate hike, the 10-year yield fell to 4.94% and the 20-year yield to 5.337%. The move suggests the bond market is pricing in lower inflation after the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to bring inflation under control. ✔️ @venture

"If the new thing isn’t better than what is available, it hasn’t met your threshold; then that screens out 99% of what you see, and it’s an enormous thought conserver. That is not taught in business schools.” Charlie Munger. ✔️ @venture

Cathie Wood calls SPCX a “deep value opportunity.” Meanwhile, ARKK sold 859,000 Nvidia shares at the bottom of Q4 2022. The sale cost investors over $850M in potential profits. ✔️ @venture

🛢China Crude Futures Hit Record China’s benchmark crude futures hit a record 929.4 yuan a barrel after a major Middle East pipeline shutdown disrupted supply. Chinese refiners bought more cargoes, lifting the Shanghai contract to its highest since launching in 2018. Oman and Murban crude also trade above $126 a barrel. ✔️ @venture

U.S. stocks lost $490 billion in 25 minutes after the Fed raised rates 25 bps. Warsh warned inflation is still elevated. ✔️ @venture

🤩The Rule Behind AI Obedience Ask an AI assistant to block a gambling app for 30 days, and to keep the block even if you later ask for it back. On day 2, you ask for access. Both outcomes are obedience. One instruction has to lose. Most systems let the most recent request win. That is a position on whether you can bind your later self, set silently above the settings you chose. The hidden question is whether your settings survive you. The law answers this differently. In Europe, the Consumer Rights Directive gives you 14 days to withdraw from a distance contract. Article 25 says this right cannot be waived or restricted to the consumer’s detriment. The law sides with your later self. Dutch mental health law takes the opposite view. A person aged 16 or over can make a self-binding declaration naming compulsory care for a future crisis. It requires a care plan, a responsible clinician, an independent doctor, signatures, and court authorisation. Two societies wrote opposite rules into law. An assistant answers the same question every time, but no one wrote its rule down or offered it to you. You can choose the rule, but not always the rule about the rule. ✔️ @venture

☁️ Oracle’s Customer-Funded AI Buildout $11.4 billion in customer advances helped Oracle report operating cash flow of $23.1 billion, up 184%. Yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion for the quarter. The advances fund infrastructure before delivery, but they are not free cash. Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capital projects and reported $18.0 billion of net cash outlay after deducting advances. Treating $18.0 billion as spending creates an apparent $5.1 billion surplus, but it counts the advances twice. Oracle’s own calculation uses the full spending figure. Cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.4 billion, while Oracle added 850 megawatts of data-centre capacity. If advances slow while construction spending stays high, funding must come from elsewhere or spending must adjust. ✔️ @venture

A list of 20 types of stocks. ✔️ @venture

🏦 US Debt Tilts Toward T-Bills After 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% in May 2026, more than 75% of the increase in marketable Treasury debt since July came from T-bills. That compares with 18% in 2025. The US now has a record $7.25 trillion in T-bills outstanding. They mature within a year and must be constantly refinanced. Yields are already around 3.8%-4%, while another 25 bps Fed hike is expected on Wednesday. BofA expects 3 25 bps hikes this year, which could add over $50 billion in annual interest costs once the debt is fully rolled over. The Treasury avoided more expensive long-term borrowing by using short-term debt. Now that short-term funding is getting more expensive too. ✔️ @venture

📞 Trump Calls Jensen Huang Live Trump called NVDA CEO Jensen Huang live during an interview: “He can create the best AI chip in the world but can’t figure out how to put me on speakerphone.” They agreed AI is a major driver of growth and U.S. national security. ✔️ @venture

💡 HERE ARE THE TOP 15 PERFORMERS OF 2026 🖱️ $SNDK +588% 🖱️ $MRNA +388% 🖱️ $AEHR +369% 🖱️ $DELL +350% 🖱️ $TWST +301% 🖱️ $AXTI +296% 🖱️ $MU +242% 🖱️ $BE +217% 🖱️ $AAOI +202% 🖱️ $INTC +179% 🖱️ $MRVL +178% 🖱️ $NBIS +168% 🖱️ $PENG +162% 🖱️ $WDC +160% 🖱️ $LITE +152% ✔️ @venture

🚤 Longer Routes Tighten Supertanker Supply A US Gulf-China supertanker voyage was assessed above $35 million on 11 September. Longer routes and ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied, reducing availability for the next cargo. China’s August crude imports were 23.4% lower year on year, while refined-fuel exports were about 13% higher. Kpler estimated onshore crude stocks fell by 550,000 barrels a day. Stocks can defer purchases but do not guarantee cheap delivery when China replenishes them. Imports could rise while tankers remain tied up, increasing shipping demand without an empty-tank emergency. Watch September arrivals and inventories together. Higher imports alone cannot show whether China is rebuilding stocks or processing more oil. ✔️ @venture

🤖 AI Stocks Face a Safety Brake The heads of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are calling for slower AI development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI is improving faster than it can be safely controlled. The five largest tech companies are committing roughly $700 billion this year to AI infrastructure. A deliberate slowdown could push the payoff years further out while spending continues. Lawmakers are pushing mandatory safety audits and reporting for major labs. Researchers who left OpenAI and Anthropic also warn that the technology needs more caution. That leaves three threats: builders calling for a slowdown, regulators closing in, and spending rising. The trade has climbed for 3 to 4 years. ✔️ @venture