Choice Commodity Research

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk:Buy ALUMINIUM|27FEB26 in Commodity @ 312.45 SL 311.9 TGT 313.55

Silver Update* Silver prices advanced over 2.20% rebounding on weak US retail sales and fading confidence in dollar assets. Investors await the January jobs report, while expectations of Fed easing policy continue supporting demand. SHFE silver inventories fell to around 318–350 tonnes, the lowest since 2015, marking an 88% drop from the 2021 peak. Heavy 2025 exports to London eased global shortages but sharply tightened China’s domestic supply, support further prices. -Choice Broking

*Copper Update* Copper futures advanced as supply disruptions offset weak Chinese holiday demand and rising inventories. Glencore cut output guidance, while production at Escondida and Collahuasi declined sharply, tightening supply and supporting prices. -Choice Broking

*Crude Oil Update* Crude oil gains on US-Iran tensions and tanker interception risks, though gains were capped by a 13.4-million-barrel inventory build and expectations of a global supply surplus. -Choice Broking

Gold Update Gold prices trading above $5,040 near a two-week high, supported by weak US retail data, rising Fed rate-cut expectations, strong central bank buying, and persistent US-Iran geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand. -Choice Broking

*Dollar Update* The dollar index fell below 97 ahead of the January jobs report. Weak retail sales and concerns over reduced Chinese demand for US Treasuries pressured the dollar, boosting safe-haven and emerging-market flows. -Choice Broking

Silver up by +2.50%, Natural gas down by -1.60%

Global Update * The US dollar faced challenges due to concerns over foreign demand for US assets, particularly after reports of Chinese regulators advising financial institutions to limit holdings of US Treasuries. * Attention now shifts to the January US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled today, following a brief partial government shutdown. * There are reports of Washington potentially intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude and deploying an additional carrier strike group if negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program fail. * OPEC's monthly market outlook is expected today, with an IEA assessment highlighting a predicted supply surplus this year. * Sterling's appreciation is limited by political uncertainty surrounding Keir Starmer and leadership issues. * U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US aims for a fair rivalry with China, preparing for talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of President Trump's planned visit in April. * Bessent noted the US is focusing on regaining sovereignty from China in key industries like critical minerals, semiconductors, and medicine. * The US has lowered import tariffs on textiles and apparel from Bangladesh, fostering competition for Indian exporters and potentially increasing pressure on Indian spinning mills and cotton shipments. * India is engaging in confidential discussions with Brazil, Canada, France, and the Netherlands to diversify its critical mineral supplies, reducing its reliance on China. -Choice Broking

Bull Call Spread (Bullish Strategy) Sumeet Bagadia Desk : Sell NATURALGAS 300 CE 20-FEB 1 lot @ 15 Buy NATURALGAS 280 CE 20-FEB 1 lot @ 22.65 Max loss 9562.5 below 280 (On expiry) Max profit of 15437.5 above 300 (on expiry) Breakeven: 287.65 Risk-Reward: 1 : 1.55 Margin Required: 45000 (Duration: 2 Week)

Bull Call Spread - NATURALGAS,Max Profit - 15437.50| Max Loss - 9562.50.Check out details:https://finx.choiceindia.com/research-report/research/option_strategy/report

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Stopped Out @ 157800...Buy in Commodity GOLDTEN|27FEB26 @ 159150 SL 157800 TGT 161850.00

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Exit @ 311.95...Buy in Commodity ALUMINIUM|27FEB26 @ 311.75 SL 310.95 TGT 313.35

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Stopped Out @ 107.7...Buy in Commodity CRUDEOIL|17FEB26 PE 5700.00 @ 127.9 SL 107.9 TGT 167.90

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Exit @ 189.15...Buy in Commodity LEAD|27FEB26 @ 188.95 SL 188.45 TGT 189.95

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk:Buy ALUMINIUM|27FEB26 in Commodity @ 311.75 SL 310.95 TGT 313.35

US Core Retail Sales m/m Actual : 0.0% Forecast : 0.3% Prev.: 0.5% Impact :Positive for Bullions US Retail Sales m/m Actual : 0.0% Forecast : 0.4% Prev.: -0.6% Impact : Positive for Bullions US Employment Cost Index q/q Actual : 0.7% Forecast: 0.8% Prev.: 0.8% Impact : Positive for Bullions

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Stopped Out @ 21...Buy in Commodity NATURALGAS|20FEB26 CE 280.00 @ 22.7 SL 21 TGT 26.10

ADP Weekly Employment Change Actual : 6.5K Prev.: 7.8K Impact : Positive for Bullion