CRYPTOHELL

If we look at the derivative metrics, I might guess that many exchanges are currently using Bitcoin as liquidity for derivative products. That's why crypto exchanges are aggressively promoting leverage trading, especially margin trading. Because traders don't need to buy and hold coins, they just need to make the right call on the direction and they'll profit. That's why the derivative metric seems more positive compared to the spot market metric. — Kalo kita lihat dari metric derivative ini, gua mungkin menduga kalo bursa pun saat ini banyak menjadikan Bitcoin sebagai likuiditas untuk produk derivative. Makanya bursa kripto gencar banget mempromosikan leverage trading, apalagi margin trading. Karena trader ga perlu beli dan nyimpen koin, cuma call salah satu arah aja orang udah dapet profit. Makanya, metric derivative ini keliatan lebih positif dibanding metric spot market.

Check this out, since January 2024, the purchasing power of investors towards Bitcoin has drastically decreased. The stablecoin exchange reserve metrics could be our gauge for investor purchasing power towards Bitcoin too. If the metrics go up, it means the purchasing power is strong; if it goes down, then the purchasing power is weak. In the past month, the metrics have been sideways, which makes sense since the price is pretty high. So maybe a lot of people are in a wait-and-see mode. — Liat deh, mulai Januari 2024 pun daya beli investor terhadap Bitcoin pun menurun sangat drastis. Metrics stablecoin exchange reserve ini bisa jadi tolak ukur kita terhadap daya beli investor terhadap Bitcoin juga, jika metrics naik maka daya belinya kuat, jika menurun maka daya belinya pun lemah. Sebulan belakangan pun metrics sideways, ya wajar sih harganya juga cukup tinggi. Jadi mungkin banyak yang wait & see.

Pasokan Bitcoin di Spot Market Exchange masih kian menurun yang menandakan sirkulasi pasokan Bitcoin di Spot Market banyak keluar dari sirkulasi bursa kripto. Apa ini pertanda positif ? Bisa jadi iya, bisa juga engga. Positifnya, pasokan Bitcoin kurang lebih banyak yang dormant atau disimpan di Cold Wallet / Hard Wallet untuk tidak diperdagangkan. Atau mungkin di simpan di custodian wallet lalu dijadikan collateral asset oleh beberapa investor. Ini menurut gua anomali, kenapa ? karena sudah berjalan 6 tahun dari 2019 sampai sekarang metrics Exchange Reserve terus menerus downtrend dan gak tampak ada transaksi besar yang signifikan. Apa ini sehat ? Gua cuma bisa bilang gatau, cuma aneh aja kenapa ko trendnya masih terus downtrend. Apakah orang positif holding ? atau memang Bitcoin lagi di manipulasi ?

The supply of Bitcoin on Spot Market Exchanges keeps decreasing, indicating that the circulation of Bitcoin supply on the Spot Market is mostly leaving the crypto exchange circulation. Is this a positive sign? It could be, or it might not be. On the positive side, there's a lot of Bitcoin supply that's dormant or stored in Cold Wallets / Hard Wallets, not being traded. Or maybe it's stored in custodian wallets and used as collateral assets by some investors. This seems anomalous to me. Why? Because for the past 6 years from 2019 until now, the Exchange Reserve metrics have been continuously downtrending, and there haven't been any significant large transactions. Is this healthy? I can only say I don't know, it's just strange that the trend keeps going downwards. Are people positive about holding? Or is Bitcoin being manipulated?

Sementara ini gua pribadi masih expecting harga naik ke $76.870 - $81.849 pada rasio 1.236 - 1.618. Apakah harga Bitcoin akan terkoreksi atau breakout dari rasio 1.9 pitchfork ? Gak ada yang tahu pasar akan bergerak bagaimana, tapi yang pasti ada dua probabilitas. 1. Jika candle tertolak pada kisaran harga $76.870 - $81.849 pada rasio 1.236 - 1.618 dengan beberapa konfirmasi teknikal dan onchain. Maka potensi koreksi -30 sampai dengan -40% akan terjadi pada bulan pertengahan tahun. Gua masih fokus di bulan September 2024 karena ada pemilu presiden amerika. 2. atau jika candle dapat breakout melewati rasio 1.9 pitchfork dan rasio 1.618 pada harga $81.849 dengan beberapa konfirmasi teknikal dan data onchain. Maka potensi harga bergerak naik ke $102.076 per Bitcoin.

For now, personally, I'm still expecting the price to rise to $76,870 - $81,849 at the 1.236 - 1.618 ratio. Will the Bitcoin price correct or break out from the 1.9 pitchfork ratio? Nobody knows how the market will move, but there are two probabilities. 1. If the candle gets rejected around the $76,870 - $81,849 range at the 1.236 - 1.618 ratio with some technical and on-chain confirmations, then there's a potential correction of -30% to -40% happening around mid-year. I'm keeping an eye on September 2024 because of the U.S. presidential election. 2. Or, if the candle manages to break out past the 1.9 pitchfork ratio and the 1.618 ratio at $81,849 with some technical and on-chain confirmations, then there's potential for the price to move up to $102,076 per Bitcoin.

So, basically, most of the Bitcoin stash is still held by the Long term holders. Meanwhile, folks can see that the decreasing Bitcoin supply is from holders who've been hodling for 3 months to 3 years. So, the conclusion is, yeah, there are some selling transactions happening from new investors, but the Long term holders who've been holding for 3 - 10 years are still keeping their Bitcoin and not really rushing to sell. — Porsi bitcoin yang disimpan masih di dominasi oleh Long term holder, sementara temen-temen dapat melihat bahwa pasokan Bitcoin yang menurun adalah dari holder yang telah hodling selama 3 bulan sampai dengan 3 tahun terakhir. Maka dari itu kesimpulannya memang ada transaksi jual yang terjadi dilakukan oleh new investor, sedangkan Long term holder dengan kurun waktu holding 3 - 10 tahun masih menyimpan Bitcoinnya dan tidak terlalu agresif menjual.

Binance's app got taken down from the Play Store, but don't worry, Android users can download it from GetApps or download it through the link below. https://www.binance.info/id/download

💡💡💡 AS mengumumkan angka inflasi: ⚫ Indeks Harga Konsumen: 3,5% YoY, 0,4% MoM ⚫ Perkiraan Indeks Harga Konsumen: 3,2% YoY, 0,4% MoM Indeks Harga Konsumen pada bulan Maret merupakan yang tertinggi sejak September 2023. Pasar swap menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas Fed menurunkan suku bunga pada bulan Juni menurun. Para pengambil kebijakan Fed telah mengantisipasi selama beberapa waktu bahwa tekanan biaya perumahan akan berkurang, sehingga memungkinkan inflasi inti melambat. Namun hal itu belum terwujud dengan data baru. ▪️Telegram ▪️X ▪️Komunitas ▪️Sumber

ETF spot bitcoin di AS dilaporkan telah melampaui $200 miliar dalam volume perdagangan kumulatif, mencapai $201,7 miliar: ⚫IBIT milik BlackRock memimpin dengan volume $1,4 miliar, diikuti oleh GBTC milik Grayscale dan FBTC milik Fidelity ⚫ Market share GBTC turun dari 50,5% menjadi 23,5%, sementara IBIT naik menjadi 48,1% ⚫ETF spot Bitcoin AS mengalami arus keluar bersih sebesar $18,6 juta pada 9 April ▪️Telegram ▪️X ▪️Komunitas ▪️Sumber

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $4 trillion asset manager State Street says Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 bps by June and 150 bps by end of 2024. @WatcherGuru

Wishing you a blessed Eidul Fitr filled with joy, peace, and prosperity. May the spirit of Eid bring us together in unity and harmony, and may our crypto journeys be filled with success and abundance. Eid Mubarak!"

Ya kalo dari segi harga ga perlu dibicarain, tapi dari MCAPnya masih jauh dibawah $50m - $100m masih potensial SOLDOCS mooning.

Ini bukan endorsement, dan gua sangat tertarik dengan proyek yang mereka kerjakan. Pelajarin dulu sama temen-temen sebelum berinvestasi Website : https://soldocs.io/ Chart | CA : gr1qPTo3tpMAxt59BftQo2uSfRHRuUZJaWLhR8ADtwz

And I'm still seeing the potential for a bearish divergence on the 1-hour timeframe with confirmation of a price drop after making a lower high. Personally, I'm still looking at the EMA50 daily timeframe as the nearest support. Again, I want to remind you all, you can set buy limit orders at that support with the risk that if the EMA50 doesn't hold its liquidity, the price could potentially drop to around $50k, like our previous analysis. — Dan gua masih melihat potensi bearish divergence pada timeframe 1h dengan konfirmasi adanya penurunan harga setelah membuat lower high. Gua pribadi masih mengunng EMA50 timeframe daily sebagai support terdekat. Kembali lagi gua ingetin, temen-temen boleh set buy limit order pada support tersebut dengan resiko jika EMA50 tidak gemuk likuiditasnya maka harga berpotensi turun ke level $50k something seperti analisa kita sebelumnya. 🥇🥇🥇