Razum Capital

Played out really well🫡

💰Bitcoin Update BTC is still moving in line with our previous outlook, trading within a clear range between $60K and $83K.Right now, price is testing a key support area around $60K, along with the 200-WMA. This reaction will be important. A strong bounce and a weekly close with a long lower wick could signal that buyers are stepping in and potentially set the stage for a recovery. However, we still need to wait for the weekly candle to close before drawing any conclusions. If BTC breaks below this support zone and loses the 200-week MA, the next targets could open up around $50K and potentially lower. At the same time, most of the liquidity has recently been concentrated in semiconductor stocks, where the main rally has been taking place. This may be one of the reasons why crypto has been stagnating.If momentum in semiconductors starts to reverse, we could potentially see some liquidity rotate back into crypto. But for now, both BTC and altcoins still look weak. My main focus remains on the stock market. I am keeping an eye on crypto, but I do not see any particularly attractive setups yet.

$ETL Bad price action in ETL right now as well as in other space stocks. I fully closed position

💥🇺🇸 #stocks #USA Dozens of companies in the S&P 500 have doubled over the past year… some of them have surged by 900% or more.

$ETL +50% 📈 Not bad for 2 weeks , right?

Good day for $ETL +20% since my post 📈

A potential SpaceX IPO at a multi-trillion valuation would not be just a “space stocks” event. It could force the market to reprice the whole value chain around it: -satellite infrastructure -optical and analog semiconductors -AI/data-center compute -launch and defense suppliers -foundries and advanced manufacturing -Starlink-related hardware and connectivity plays One listing could become a catalyst for several themes at once. Not just space. A full ecosystem re-rating.

Crypto as always 10% pump then 50% dump 🫡

Recently I bought DXYZ — a listed fund that gives public market exposure to private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic and other high-growth private tech names. The stock moved around +120% in just two weeks, mainly because investors wanted exposure to private AI/space names before they become publicly listed (already sold) Now I’m looking at another interesting name: Eutelsat Group — ticker ETL. Eutelsat is not SpaceX, but the market may start looking at it through a similar lens: space infrastructure + satellite internet + European defense + sovereign connectivity. After merging with OneWeb, Eutelsat became one of the only serious European players in LEO satellite connectivity — basically Europe’s closest public-market alternative to Starlink. Why ETL could be interesting: • European Starlink alternative through OneWeb • Beneficiary of Europe’s push for strategic independence in satellite communications • Exposure to defense, government, aviation, maritime and enterprise connectivity • LEO revenue is growing fast while the legacy video business is declining • Potential narrative boost from the upcoming SpaceX IPO / Starlink-related attention • One of the few liquid public ways to play this theme in Europe • The chart looks very interesting, with a strong accumulation setup • ETL already pumped around 500% in 2025, which shows that this stock can move aggressively when the right news hits Of course, this is not a risk-free story. Eutelsat still has a declining legacy video business, high capex needs, debt, and recent shareholder dilution. So this is more of a high-risk turnaround / narrative + fundamentals setup, not a clean compounder. I have position with a stop loss Not financial advice. Do your own research

If you’re still focused on crypto and not trading stocks, here are a few coins whose charts I like. Some of them still need to break key resistance levels and moving averages before they can really start moving, but they’re worth adding to your watchlist. FLOCK C TURBO PEPE ORDER

The real altseason is happening in Al stocks now. Some Al stock moves over the last month: Intel +102% AMD +92% Micron +77% Sandisk +83% 2021 altseason vibe

Quick continuation of my crypto vs stocks thoughts. I’m not saying crypto is dead. But right now, I see a much better risk/reward in selected equities. Even large-cap stocks have outperformed many major crypto assets over the last few years And in smaller, under-the-radar names, the upside can be much more asymmetric. That’s where I’m focusing more of my research now

💰💰Crypto feels broken right now. And maybe that is the point. A lot of people came into crypto looking for that “life-changing” trade. But the reality is that even many experienced market participants have been wiped out or pushed into survival mode. So the real question is: What comes next? Right now, crypto feels less like a healthy ecosystem and more like a closed liquidity loop. Traders are extracting liquidity from each other. Exchanges are monetizing every possible instrument. Projects are delaying launches. Farmers are waiting for points that may or may not convert into anything meaningful. And retail is still chasing the next narrative in a market where the risk/reward looks extremely unattractive. One of the clearest signs is the rise of perpetual futures activity. After such a brutal market, it is hard to ignore how much volume still flows into platforms like Hyperliquid. Maybe it is speculation. Maybe it is hedging. Maybe it is just the market self-liquidating in another form. Either way, it tells you something important: Crypto has shifted from “technology adoption” to aggressive liquidity extraction. Exchanges do not really care what you trade anymore. Crypto, stocks, gold, oil, indices — it does not matter. They care that you trade, because every trade generates fees. At the same time, DeFi yields are no longer attractive enough to justify the risks. Why take smart contract risk, bridge risk, oracle risk, team risk and hack risk for a few percent annualized yield? Points farming feels similar. Users spend months providing liquidity, testing products and taking risk, only to find out later that the reward is delayed, diluted, unclear or not worth the effort. At some point, you have to ask: Am I farming the protocol, or is the protocol farming me? And then there is the project side. Many teams are no longer thinking about aggressive growth. They are thinking: How do we survive? Marketing slows down. Development slows down. Token launches get delayed. Communities become quieter. That does not mean crypto is dead. There will always be exceptions. Some projects will survive and do very well. But right now, in many areas of the market, the setup looks poor: High risk. Limited reward. Low visibility. Crowded narratives. This is not the easiest environment to force trades, chase every new story or blindly believe in every project. Personally, I am becoming more selective. And because of that, I also want to spend more time sharing my thoughts on equities: stocks, small-cap ideas, under-the-radar companies, AI supply chain, semiconductor-related setups, market trends etc. If this is something you would like to see more often, support this post with a reaction or comment. It will help me understand whether this type of content is useful for you — and whether it is worth spending more time publishing these breakdowns here.

💰Looks like Ethereum and some altcoins are starting to wake up. The scenario I outlined in my latest big forecast is still fully in play. Back then, we did not break down, and now the market seems to be forming a mini accumulation structure — essentially a two-month base building to the upside. The first target I’m watching is $2,900 on Ethereum. For me, this scenario would be invalidated if ETH drops back below $2,300 within the next 1–2 days.

Update on the war: U.S., Israel, allies vs Iran 1) It is obvious that the initial plan of the Americans did not work. They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime did not happen. 2) The originally announced four days of attacks gradually turned into a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something similar before in 2022. 3) Few expected that Iran would strike at one of the most sensitive points of the global economy — raw materials. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. Iran’s goal is clear: they want to create chaos across the entire Middle East. The entire Arab aviation route has been disrupted. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $100–150 in the near future if there are no sudden changes. Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos. European and Chinese stock markets have already started to decline sharply. If this situation drags on, the U.S. markets could face a crash as well. Iran’s strategy appears to be forcing allies to pressure Trump to end his military operations. Trump clearly miscalculated by expecting a quick victory. Higher oil prices lead to higher inflation, which then leads to higher interest rates. This creates a vicious cycle. Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted. Summary: If the conflict remains in an active phase, and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than a month, the outlook for global markets will be very negative. For everyone — China, Europe, and the United States — markets could enter a steep downturn. Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike against Iran. However, we do not know how strongly Iran is being supported by China and Russia. Unfortunately, we may have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules — where leaders can be targeted and killed. Before the start of World War II, beginning in the 1930s, countries engaged in tariff wars and imposed sanctions on each other. Eventually, this escalated into a real global war.

Is it starting? ⚪️China is urging its citizens to immediately leave Iran. ⚪️The US ambassador to Israel has called on diplomats to leave the country. ⚪️Germany and many European countries have also urged their citizens to leave Israel. ⚪️Public bomb shelters have opened in major Israeli cities.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 #Iran #USA #macro #Oil 🛢Oil on the verge of a major breakout? Today, the probability of a US strike on Iran on Polymarket jumped from 19% to nearly 40% within just a few hours. For a geopolitical event of this scale, that’s a significant move. Someone also placed a $64,000 bet that the operation would begin before the end of the month. There are roughly ten days left until that deadline. Does this mean a strike is inevitable? No. But it does mean the market has started to actively price in the risk. Markets move not on facts, but on expectations. Iran is not just another Middle Eastern country. It produces several million barrels of oil per day and plays a critical role in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of global oil supply flows. Any escalation immediately creates a risk premium in oil prices. Even without actual supply disruptions, fear alone can be enough to trigger a sharp move higher. If tensions continue to rise, the initial reaction could follow a familiar pattern. Oil spikes, energy stocks gain short-term momentum, and the broader market shifts into risk-off mode. Capital typically rotates into the US dollar, bonds, and gold. Crypto markets often react nervously in such phases, as liquidity tends to exit the highest-risk assets first. It’s important to understand that prediction markets are not insider information. They reflect aggregated expectations. When the implied probability of a major geopolitical event doubles in a single day, that signals a shift in sentiment, not confirmation of the event itself. And sometimes sentiment shifts matter more than the event. If tensions persist in the coming days, volatility could increase sharply. If this turns out to be informational noise, we may instead see a quick pullback and a classic “sell the rumor, buy the dip” setup. The key question right now isn’t whether a strike will happen. The real question is whether the market has already priced in enough of the risk. That will determine the magnitude of the next move.

💰Bitcoin Update Price moved perfectly according to our scenario. Bitcoin dropped even deeper than I initially expected. At the moment, price has touched 200 Weekly Moving Average — a key long-term level. Here I see strong buying interest, confirmed by several factors: • A fast rebound from $60K to $70K • Weekly candle close with a large lower wick (if nothing changes in the next ~10 hours) • Huge volume spike, including ETFs — the largest volume ever recorded on BlackRock’s BTC ETF ($IBIT) For me, this suggests that further downside in the near term is unlikely. The most logical and probable scenario from here is a multi-month consolidation (range). Within that range, it will become clearer where price intends to go next. Key things to monitor are: • the Fed balance sheet • overall system liquidity • price action + volume There is also a possible “second top” scenario, similar to what we saw in 2021: after a sharp drop → several months of consolidation → a final second peak that marked the cycle top (see the example above 👆🏻). As for altcoins, everything remains typical — they are getting sold down aggressively. 💰However, Ethereum looks interesting. This is already the third time ETH has dropped into a zone from which it previously delivered 80–200% moves. This time may not be an exception.

The Last Dance of Silver 🪙 The execution of our silver idea played out perfectly — even better than I expected. Right now, we are seeing: — vertical acceleration — abnormal volumes — followed by an equally fast downside move in a very short period of time — an extremely aggressive media and mainstream hype ❗️ Most often, after this type of price action, the trend reverses. I have closed all my positions in silver. In total, silver is up ~250% from my entry point. For comparison, not a single top cryptocurrency has delivered a similar return over the past year. At this stage, aside from a potential sell-off, the only scenario I’m considering is a prolonged sideways consolidation. The market has made its move. Now — discipline and patience. That’s the game 😉

🧪🔳🟠🥏The balance of the Federal Reserve vs Others altcoins Starting from the end of December 2025 - what we've all been waiting for so long has happened! The balance of the Federal Reserve began to rise sharply, after years of decline. The growth of the Federal Reserve's balance = the influx of liquidity into the system. In the previous cycle, the reversal of the Federal Reserve's balance signaled a bottom in altcoins... and then a multi-year rise in cryptocurrencies!