A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Gold Analysis: Price Is Now Below The 200-Day The gold pressure is really starting to shine through... Pun intended lol. Inflation trending away from the Fed's 2% target, good growth, and a solid labor market are all allowing the Fed to raise — and that's pressuring gold. With a December hike now fully priced and the 10-year back above 4.50%, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal keeps climbing. Paul Tudor Jones once said nothing good ever comes below the 200-day, and gold is definitively below it. The next levels of value are $3,900 and $3,500. A short-term opportunity lies for the bears on precious metals, for as long as this regime stays intact. The second the war ends and central banks pivot into a more laxed stance, the story improves for Gold. Hopefully by then, we are at some good value points and shift our positioning. Until then, don't fight the trend. read the full article here. — Alan

DXY Analysis: CPI Tailwind Eyes Crucial 100.5 Zone Now The dollar index eased slightly after May CPI landed largely in line. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.2% while core ticked up to 2.9% YoY. The lone soft spot was core MoM at 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, which trimmed some hike bets at the margin. The inflation surge remains an energy story. Energy rose 23.5% annually with gasoline up 40.5%, while core commodities actually fell 0.1% on the month — evidence the pass-through beyond fuel stays contained for now. A December quarter-point hike remains fully priced. Geopolitics continues to underwrite the dollar. The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, and Trump warned Tehran is taking "too long" and will "pay the price" — casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. Inflation at 3-year highs, the war grinding on, and the dollar holding its safe-haven bid — the path of least resistance for DXY points back to 100.5 read the full article here. — Alan

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Silver update: holding steady, looking for further breakdowns in order to trail stops 🤝 - Nick

VIX Update: 10% Surge Reshapes Equity Risk Today The VIX is spiking to 20.91, up 10.46% on the day after compressing in the 16–18 range through May. The Nasdaq 100 is breaking lower at 28,749, down 2.49% and making new relative lows. The relationship is doing exactly what textbooks describe — volatility expanding as equities decline. Friday's NFP at 172K gave the Fed labor market cover to hike. For context, the VIX spent most of May below 17 — a level associated with complacent positioning and crowded long exposure. The put-call ratio was heavily skewed toward calls. That positioning is now unwinding violently. The VIX is not just a fear gauge — it is a signal that systematic strategies, options dealers, and volatility-targeting funds are reducing equity exposure mechanically. As long as VIX stays above 20, that flow continues. read the full article here. — Alan

DXY Analysis: Three CPI Scenarios That Decide the Dollar Tomorrow's May CPI release will determine whether DXY breaks out or not. Consensus calls for 4.2% headline (up from 3.8%) and 2.9% core (up from 2.8%). A print above 3.8% headline confirms the inflation problem has not retreated and reinforces the Fed's case to hike. DXY likely pushes through 100.50 toward 101+. A print below 3.6% would be a meaningful cooldown, weakening the hike narrative and likely sending DXY back to the 98.50 area where the 200-day SMA provides support. Anything between 3.6% and 3.8% keeps the consolidation intact. The bias is toward a hot print. Energy prices remain elevated, PPI ran at 6.0% in April, and consensus expects energy to drive the headline higher. Bank of America forecasts 4.2% with core at 2.8%. Markets already price ~70% odds of at least one Fed hike this year. A confirming CPI print solidifies that pricing. read the full article here. — Alan

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Silver short signal still running hot! ♨️ Riding the metals downturn for the time being. For long term investing, I think we are starting to get to more attractive levels! 📉📈 - Nick

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Nasdaq Analysis: Hopium Buying After Worst Day in a Year The Nasdaq is recovering from Friday's near-5% collapse. The catalyst Friday was the NFP print, which confirmed the Fed has the labor market cover it needs to address inflation. Today's bounce is being interpreted as a buyable dip. From a macro perspective, that interpretation is difficult to defend. Markets are now pricing rate hikes as soon as October 2026. The Iran-Israel conflict re-escalated with weekend missile exchanges. Oil is back above $91. Yields are green on the day. The put-call ratio is heavily skewed toward calls — a contrarian read suggesting positioning is dangerously crowded. COT data showed -2.22% net selling last week, and that figure does not yet incorporate Friday's action. In my view, if you pay any attention to macro, this dip being bought is pure hopium. The fundamentals have not changed. The labor market is strong, the Fed can hike, the war is escalating, and rates are heading higher. read the full article here. — Alan

Oil Price Analysis: Iran-Israel Strikes Again. WTI is up after Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes over the weekend. Probably the most serious test of the ceasefire since April. The chart shows the war's defining range clearly. Resistance sits at $116–$120, support at $84–$88. Price has oscillated between these zones for three months. The escalation imperils Trump's proposed 60-day ceasefire framework. The president has called on both sides to avoid further military action while maintaining that negotiations remain ongoing. The contradiction between active combat and active diplomacy is the same pattern that has defined this conflict for three months. OPEC+ added complexity by approving a 188,000 barrel per day production increase for July. The additional quota is largely symbolic — Saudi spare capacity cannot offset Iranian disruption while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. read the full article. — Alan

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GBPUSD short position target 1 hit. I am letting the second half run! - Nick

I stand corrected. The VIX woke up.. 👀

ETH/USD is approaching January 2018 levels. This would mean giving back all of its gains from the epic run-ups we saw in the past 7-8 years. Is crypto broken, or is this the buy of the century?