A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

USDCAD Now Rejecting Resistance as the CAD Holds Its Ground USDCAD, one of my favorite positions right now, is tapping into resistance that held nicely back in January 2026 and again in April. We tapped it and we are rejecting it as of now. I want to see us stay below the 200-day. Right now we are just above it. But a close below it that holds would signal solid bear participation. I am targeting 1.3700 as a profit target, then trailing stops lower if it keeps trending. The Canadian dollar is holding up quite nicely. It seems the market priced a worst case for Canada that is not showing up. Canada just posted its first current account surplus in four years, driven by record energy exports on higher oil. Despite all the tariff drama, the loonie is holding its own, and I like that relative strength. I am broadly bearish on the dollar. EdgeFinder reads -8 on USD/CAD. Watch Jackson Hole and any Middle East headlines that could deter the trend. read the full article here. — Alan

Silver Analysis: Clear 70 and the 200-Day Is Likely Next Silver is back on track for another solid day, turning green and up almost 2%. It had a brief pullback that didn't quite tap the previous resistance turned support. If you clear 70, then likely you continue pushing higher into the 200-day, which is hovering around 72.37. Despite slightly hotter than expected US inflation, concerns over debt continue to support demand for silver. Silver is reaching for those two-month highs. You also have bond yields tamed right now, not exploding higher, which is helping silver a bit. The recent rally is really about dollar debasement worries after the Treasury boosted its bond buybacks. You have Jackson Hole main event on Friday. We will look to Warsh for any new forward guidance. But the outlook for the precious metals here is pretty strong. read the full article here. — Alan

NVIDIA update: I'm trimming my stop a bit, very nice pop following earnings and support holding for now! I will look to trail stops further into profits and/or may choose to to my position. All updates will be sent to VIP members If you are interested in getting our lifetime VIP membership at a discount + a payment plan option, please message here

$NVDA ripping higher on earnings! They doubled earnings year over year. Sheesh! Congrats to those who rode the move. Trade was shared in our VIP signals group a few days back.

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Gold 4H Chart: I am looking for long setups. Watching close as price begins a bit of a pullback here. Bullish due to a slowing labor market, softer economic growth metrics, and inflation neutral. If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon) Need a payment plan? Chat with support - Nick

AUDUSD Hits a 12-Week High on Hot July Inflation AUDUSD hit a 12-week high as hotter than expected July inflation fueled the risk of another rate hike. Monthly CPI rose 1.0% in July against a 0.8% forecast. Annual eased to 3.5% from 3.8%, but stayed above the 3.3% expected. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, rose 0.5% against a 0.3% forecast, leaving annual core at 3.6%. Nonetheless RBA is seeing elevated inflation. The monthly spike was driven by fuel, up 7.5% after three months of falling, on higher world oil prices. Remember, Australia is not a net-exporter like the U.S. I'd say that's the Middle East war showing up directly in the data. As long as oil stays elevated and the region stays unresolved, the RBA is on alert. Bullock said another hike is quite possible. Hike odds jumped to 27% from 17%. February is priced at 80%. read the full article here. — Alan

Bitcoin Now Holds Above the 200-Day With Resistance Ahead Bitcoin is sitting near its relative highs after spiking many percentage points this week. It is now tapping into resistance near the 80,000 to 82,000 handles. This was mostly driven by lower US bond yields, and the idea that they may stay lower. More bond buybacks, more liquidity, and that gives investors the ability to recoup their bond investments and deploy that into higher-yielding assets. So the question is does it continue higher and break above resistance with a break, retest, and continuation, or does it keep trading in its range. The 30-year yield is sitting on support near 5.150. If it breaks that level and continues lower, I would imagine Bitcoin finds more momentum higher. If that level holds and yields stay stubborn, Bitcoin likely stays range-bound. For the bulls, it looks quite good. You are now above the 200-day. A pullback that holds above it looks exceptionally well for the bull case. read the full article here. — Alan

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Euro Now Near a Three-Month High as ECB Hike Nears EURUSD is turning green on the day. It tapped into some previous resistance, possibly turned support, right above the 200-day. One thing I am noticing here. This looks like the kind of pullback that gets bought rather shallow, instead of a deeper retracement. Price is holding up near its highest since mid-May. The ECB is widely expected to raise rates in September, following its June tightening, to ease inflation pressures triggered by the US-Iran conflict. That hike would bring the deposit rate to 2.5%. Expectations for further tightening are growing as the Middle East drags on. Here is my main point. The eurozone is more vulnerable to the region than the US is. They are not a net exporter, and they are closer in proximity. So the war's inflation pressure hurts them more. As long as it drags on, I expect it keeps pressuring the ECB to hike further. Watch that support hold above the 200-day. read the full article here. — Alan

US 30-Year Yield Now Falls as Oil and Iran Pressure Ease The US 30-year yield is at 5.186, down 0.82%. It has given back some of the gains from the past couple days. You had a big red candle print after Scott Bessent announced his bond buybacks, from $2 to $4 billion, on August 19. Price is now sitting right at the low of that day's candle. So I think there is some support here, near-term, at 5.160 you can call it. If you break that level, you could see a flush and continuation lower. Me personally, I do think there is continued pressure on the long end. Today is also getting help from Middle East developments. The US said it will send more diplomats to the region as negotiations resume, and Bessent added secondary sanctions on China to reduce Iran's economic strength. If yields break 5.150 then I see a potential retest of the 200-day. Jackson Hole is later this week. For now the path of least resistance is lower. read the full article here. — Alan

Last call on this! Will be ending shortly.

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USOIL Respects Resistance Despite Sanction Threats Oil is at ~$85 and respecting the technicals. Still under the bearish trendline off the April high, still inside the 84 to 86.50 resistance band. Crude fell about 2% toward $85 today as traders awaited details of the US plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Bessent said the objective was to cut off Tehran's economic lifelines, calling it an economic D-Day. Here is the twist. Oil is falling on a sanctions escalation. Bessent himself said traders misread the threat by bidding oil up, and today the market came around to his view. The China angle is why. Beijing buys about 90% of Iran's oil, so targeting it could pressure Tehran but risks broader fallout. Meanwhile oil keeps moving through Hormuz. Reports had around 16 million barrels crossing in a single night last week. read the full article here. — Alan

USD/CAD Now Tests the 200 as Canada Trade War Escalates USDCAD is bouncing hard off the 1.3720 to 1.3750 support zone it tapped into last week. Price is back above the 200-day near 1.3840. The Canadian dollar fell as the US-Canada trade war intensified. Talks collapsed starting Friday night. On Saturday, 50% US tariffs hit roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, about 5% of Canada's exports. Carney retaliates dollar-for-dollar starting September 8. Trump also threatened 50% on Canadian autos and steel for January 1, 2027. Here is what makes this pair different from my other dollar charts this week. Everywhere else the dollar is the weak side. Here it is the strong side, because tariffs hit the loonie harder than debt worries hit the dollar. I'm watching the 200 Day SMA closely. If it fails this may be a clean short. Jackson Hole and Warsh are ahead. read the full article here. — Alan