Data's Inner Circle 👑 (WILL NEVER DM YOU FIRST)
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https://x.com/TheCryptoData The Inner Circle is where I share my thought process on the overall market, including technical analysis, altcoins, and narrative rotations 💎 Nothing shared is financial/investment advice and should not be taken as such.
إظهار المزيدلم يتم تحديد البلدالعملات المشفرة15 023
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المشتركون
-324 ساعات
-127 أيام
-4730 أيام
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The market remains volatile as we still have multiple economic releases coming this week. The main narratives have been privacy (XMR), AI, prediction markets, RWA, and stablecoins. We also have WLFI's USD1 gaining traction again with their paired assets. Despite this, market remains very rotation-heavy until we get more clarity on the macro economic front.
Key News Events
- Trump to interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller for Federal Reserve Chair.
- Michael Saylor says Quantum computing won't break Bitcoin, "it will harden it."
- Treasury Secretary Bessent says individuals may receive $1,000–$2,000 tax refunds in Q1 2026.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent says China has met all negotiated commitments so far.
- Nasdaq prepares filing to extend stock trading hours to 23 hours on weekdays.
- The F&G index is at 25 (from 22 yesterday), indicating investors are still hesitant with the overall uncertainty in the market
- BTC had -277M of outflows while ETH had -224M of outflows. This shows institutions are still taking a risk-off approach ahead of the upcoming economic data
Upcoming Events
- Dec 18th - CPI Data
- Dec 18th – Bank of England MPC Meeting + Rate Decision
- Dec 18-19th - Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
- Dec 30th - FOMC Minutes
Summary ✍️
The US unemployment data yesterday showed a cooling labor market with unemployment rising to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. This could open the door for a possible rate cut in January, but that percentage is only 21% on Polymarket. We still have CPI data later this week, which will add further uncertainty to the market. The ECB meeting on the 18th is widely expected to hold rates steady, as eurozone inflation remains near 2% target with balanced risks. We also have the the Bank of Japan who is poised for a 25bps hike on December 19th (98% chance on Polymarket), the first in 11 months, which threatens further downside for risk-on assets (i.e crypto). Past BOJ hikes have caused sharp downturns but most are already pricing in 25bps, so if it's anything higher, a larger flush would ensue. Remember to remain patient during this chop. Once these events clear, we should have more positive price action.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC remains below its trendline resistance of our bear flag which would mean a lot lower if we can't cross back into the upward channel soon. At the very least, we need to close the daily above 88.5k to show a bullish change in the structure. The daily RSI is crossing to the downside while the StochRSI is getting closer to oversold. Major support remains 86.2k, 84.6k, and 78k, while major resistance remains 94k, 97k, and 100k (50 weekly EMA). During this volatile week, don't rush to take trades. Instead wait for price to come to you and place bids much lower until there's more clarity.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH is crossing below its major support of 2930 as the RSI continues lower and the StochRSI approaches oversold. This also lines up with the large outflows we've seen from Blackrock which could indicate the lack of performance from most alts as most wait for clarity regarding the upcoming economic events. Major support remains 2820 and 2680, while major resistance remains 3050, 3300 (coincident with the 50 EMA), and 3500-3600 (coincident with the 100/200 EMA). We need to close the daily above 3050 for me to turn bullish again, otherwise I'll maintain my risk-off approach until the indicators fully reset lower.
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Quote of the day ✍️
“If you only give 50% effort, don't expect 100% of the success.”
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The market continues to chop as more uncertainty surrounds the upcoming BOJ/ECB meetings Dec 18/19th. We also have the economic data of unemployment/CPI over the next few days which will only add to the volatility. There are still a few outperformers in the market but most projects, regardless of fundamentals, are getting hammered. This further emphasizes the need to take profits along the way and always set stops.
Key News Events
UK to create new rules to "police" cryptocurrency markets
President Trump says inflation is "totally neutralized."
SOL ETFs have recorded inflows for seven consecutive days
Ripple, Circle, BitGo, FDA, Paxos win conditional U.S. trust bank approval.
Aevo confirms its legacy Ribbon Finance smart contracts were exploited for about $2.7M.
The F&G index is at 16, indicating much more fear in the market over the past few days ahead of economic data releases
On Friday, BTC had 49M of inflows while ETH had -19M of outflows. This is an interesting dichotomy considering ETH's recent outperformance vs BTC. I'll be interested to see if institutions catch up over the next few days.
Upcoming Events
Dec 16th - Unemployment Report
Dec 18th - CPI Data
Dec 18th – Bank of England MPC Meeting + Rate Decision
Dec 18-19th - Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
Dec 30th - FOMC Minutes
Summary ✍️
The Bank of Japan is poised for a 25bps hike, the first in 11 months, which threatens further downside for risk-on assets (i.e crypto). Past BOJ hikes have caused sharp downturns but most are already pricing in 25bps, so if it's anything higher, a larger flush would ensue. The Fed's recent rate cut had limited impact prices as most are staying cautious amid mixed policy signals. We still have CPI data later this week, which will add further uncertainty to the market. Remember to remain patient during this chop. Once these events clear, we should have more positive price action.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC technically made a lower low on the Daily and closed below our trendline support, which invalidates the bullish structure, although we're still above major support of 86.7k. The RSI is approaching its signal line for a bullish cross, while the StochRSI is resetting near 50. Both of these metrics could mean a reclaim higher, but BTC needs to close back within its upward channel, otherwise it would be confirmation of a bear flag breakdown/H&S. Major resistance remains 94k, 97k, and 100k (50 weekly EMA).
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH looks much better vs BTC, despite it crossing below its upward channel, due to it making higher lows on the Daily. The RSI is crossing above its signal while its StochRSI is also resetting near 50. Major support remains 3060, 2820, and 2680, while major resistance remains 3300 (coincident with the 50 EMA) and 3500-3600 (coincident with the 100/200 EMA). If we can reclaim back inside the upward channel, it will be very bullish.
📊 SOL Analysis 📊
Similar to BTC, SOL did not make higher lows either. Although it's still holding its 130 support and the RSI looks to be crossing above the signal line. I'm still keeping a close eye on the StochRSI as it's crossing below its support level. If we confirm a close below, that would validate the descending triangle pattern and potentially send us much lower. Major support is 125-130, 117, and 103, while major resistance is 145, 155 (coincident with the daily 50 EMA), and 167. As long as 125 can hold, I remain bullish.
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Quote of the day ✍️
“The pain of regret weighs more than the pain of discipline.”
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The market continues to be extremely volatile ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan and ECB meetings regarding interest rate hikes. While most are already pricing in the rate hike and effects of the carry trade unwinding, it still provides a degree of uncertainty in case the result is different than expected (0.25%). While memes have gained traction again, the market continues to be very rotation-heavy with new narratives and launches, although many opportunities still exist.
Key Macro News Events
- Federal Reserve to buy $40 billion worth of treasury bills over the next 30 days.
- Trump considers eliminating taxes on gambling winnings.
- Trump says interest rates should be 1% or lower next year.
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins says US financial markets are moving "on-chain."
- OCC grants "conditional approval" to Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, & Paxos to become national trust banks.
- Financial giant 'Interactive Brokers' to allow brokerage accounts to be funded by crypto stablecoins.
- Terra Luna Founder Do Kwon officially sentenced to 15 years in prison.
Key Crypto News Events
- Bitmine now holds 3.2% of the current $ETH supply worth $12 billion.
- YouTube now allows US creators to receive payouts in crypto stablecoins.
- SEC publishes "Crypto Asset Custody Basics for Retail Investors."
Upcoming Events
- Dec 16th - Unemployment Report
- Dec 18th - CPI Data
- Dec 18th – Bank of England MPC Meeting + Rate Decision
- Dec 18-19th - Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
- Dec 30th - FOMC Minutes
Summary ✍️
The big takeaway from the FOMC meeting was the Fed is NOT looking to hike rates next year, and instead, remain neutral/cut. Currently the market is pricing in 'No Change' for January at 78% (via Polymarket). The bright side is the Fed's $40B of Treasury bill buybacks over the next 30 days. And this isn't seen as monetary stimulus which provides another catalyst down the line. As we approach the end of Q4, I'm expecting a small rally, especially if there's positive news from the BOJ/ECB meetings. One those pass, people should feel more confident bidding in the markets as Treasury buybacks will be expected over the next few months and the possibility of actual QE starting shortly after. It's important to remain patient during these volatile times and wait for confluence with the daily/weekly S/R lines, along with your indicators, trendlines, and EMAs. Most pumps are getting sold-off, so taking profits along the way remains paramount.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC is continuing to make higher lows on the daily timeframe as its indicators reset. The StochRSI is finally below overbought territory which gives room for higher while the RSI looks to be bouncing off of its signal line which would line up nicely for a rally to 94k if followed though. Major support remains 90k and 86.7k, with major resistance at 94k, 97k, and 100k (50 weekly EMA). There's also a few liquidity clusters near 89.4k and 91.2k which makes me believe we may see one more wick lower before continuing to the upside.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH continues to face volatility post Fusaka upgrade but is respecting its trendlines as well, making higher lows as it heads towards its next resistance of 3300 (coincident with the 50D EMA). The StochRSI is also resetting below the 80 level while the RSI is bouncing off of its signal line. Major support remains 3060, 2820, and 2680, while major resistance remains 3300 and 3500-3600. Time will tell if this is an actual bear flag or a new upward channel for higher. As long as we continue to make higher lows, my bet is on the latter.
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Quote of the day ✍️
"Your future is decided by what you do today, not what you plan tomorrow.”
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Thank you to everyone who filled out the form. Big things are coming so keep an eye on your email 📧
Also, for those who bought Talus from my previous X/TG post, you had the opportunity to make 50%+ based on the high of 0.026 and entry of 0.017 💵
https://x.com/thecryptodata/status/1999290759430963382
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https://x.com/aster_dex/status/1999502883348447330
🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨
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+2
📊 Market Update 📊
There was a lot of volatility from the FOMC meeting today (both bullish and bearish). Below are key points that were mentioned, including my view of where we're going from here. BTC needs to close above 89.2k on the Daily to remain bullish and ETH needs to close above 3020 to maintain its bullish structure. I still remain net bullish, but will adjust based on future economic data.
Key takeaways from the FOMC meeting:
Policy Rate
- Fed cut another 25 bps.
- Total cuts since Sept: 75 bps.
- Fed now says policy is “in the neutral range” → no longer actively restrictive.
Forward Guidance
- No preset path.
- January cut not guaranteed; depends on data.
- Most participants see Fed funds at 3.4% by end of 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 → unchanged.
Inflation Outlook
- Inflation moving lower except goods, where tariffs = temporary upward pressure.
- Fed believes goods inflation peaks Q1 2025, then rolls off.
Labor Market
- Softening steadily.
- Powell strongly acknowledged risks to employment.
Financial Stability (Money Markets / QE-lite)
- Reserves were falling too low → Fed restarts Treasury bill purchases ~$40B/month initially.
- This is balance sheet expansion, but NOT stimulus QE.
- Fed removes cap on standing repo operations → more liquidity if needed.
Risk Balance
- Fed sees two-sided risks for first time in years (Stagflation?)
- No appetite for hikes.
- Next move is either pause or cut, not hike.
Upcoming Events
- Dec 11th - PPI Data
- Dec 11-13th - Solana Breakpoint
- Dec 16th - Unemployment Report
- Dec 18th - CPI Data
- Dec 18th – Bank of England MPC Meeting + Rate Decision
- Dec 18-19th - Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
- Dec 30th - FOMC Minutes
Summary ✍️
The big takeaway was the Fed is NOT looking to hike rates next year, and instead, remain neutral/cut. Currently the market is pricing in 'No Change' for January at 80% (via Polymarket). This explains the volatility and whipsaw in both directions post-conference. The bright side is the Fed's $40B of Treasury bill buybacks over the next 30 days. And this isn't seen as monetary stimulus which provides another catalyst down the line.
Overall, the meeting was a net positive. Powell wasn't overly hawkish, and instead presented a more neutral tone. Now we wait until more economic data releases + the FOMC minutes report Dec 30th.
Make sure to check out my recent post on Talus if you haven’t ✅
Think of it as a mix of Virtuals (agents), Bittensor (decentralized intelligence), and Zapier/n8n (automation) all combined into one vertically integrated network.
Their TGE is very soon and I'm expecting Tier-1 CEXs with mainnet Q1 2026 👇
https://x.com/thecryptodata/status/1998006559645815093
+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The market has shown cautious optimism as BTC rebounded to 92k amidst fragile sentiment. Institutional adoption continues to strengthen despite declining spot volumes and significant liquidations. Expectations of a Fed rate cut are supporting price gains while macro uncertainty persists. Although the market looks more like it is resetting mid-cycle rather than breaking down:
Macro News Events
- Federal Reserve expected to begin buying back an all-time high $45 billion of debt each month beginning in January according to a rates strategy team at BofA Global
- US Treasury Secretary forecasts 3% GDP growth for 2025 year-end, supporting risk appetite.
- Fed rate cut priced in at 94%, fueling cautious optimism across markets.
- Political and regulatory tensions increase in Europe and US but have yet to impact crypto prices meaningfully.
Crypto News Events
- A volatile day in the market triggered over $500 million in liquidations between longs and shorts, further emphasizing the risks of trading on the weekends.
- EMJ Capital CEO projects Bitcoin could hit $50 million by 2041 if it replaces the Eurodollar as global collateral for governments and central banks.
- French bank BPCE launches crypto trading in France, signaling growing institutional engagement.
- Michael Saylor says he's been meeting with sovereign wealth funds, banks, and fund managers to discuss Bitcoin.
Upcoming Events
- Dec 10th - FOMC Meeting
- Dec 11th - PPI Data
- Dec 11-13th - Solana Breakpoint
- Dec 16th - Unemployment Report
- Dec 18th - CPI Data
- Dec 18th – Bank of England MPC Meeting + Rate Decision
- Dec 18-19th - Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
- Dec 30th - FOMC Minutes
Summary ✍️
Lingering effects from the recent U.S. inflation reads (PCE Index in line with expectations) and employment signals continue to support dovish Fed expectations. This, combined with the rumors of QE rumored to start in January have caused most to start front-running the news. Global liquidity concerns from Japan and China have eased slightly, allowing risk-on sentiment to return. Institutional activity remains mixed, with some ETF outflows persisting but whale accumulation noted on-chain. Overall, the current phase looks like a consolidation and reset within an ongoing bull cycle rather than a reversal. I remain very bullish for Q1 2026.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC is potentially in a bear flag on the daily but is still making higher lows (which is bullish for now). The RSI is showing good momentum while the StochRSI is also crossing above its signal line. I'm expecting us to at least rise to 93.5k and retest previous resistance before potentially rejecting lower. Major resistance remains 94k, 97k, and 100k with major support at 90k, 88.5k, and 86.2k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH is also making higher lows on the daily with its RSI showing bullish momentum and the StochRSI also crossing above its signal line. The recent Fusaka upgrade "pump" still seems to be intact but I'll be watching ETF flows closely to see if institutions feel the same. Expect major resistance near 3270 and 3600 with major support near 3030, 2930, 2820, and 2680.
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Quote of the day ✍️
“We are all self-made, but only the successful will admit it.”
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↗️ Altcoin Trade ↗️
UMBRA - SOL
Mcap - 48M FDV
Reason: Our last call in the private group was EDEL, and it went up over 57% from entry. UMBRA looks to have even more potential. UMBRA is a Solana-based crypto project providing "incognito mode" for on-chain finance, a privacy protocol powered by Arcium that enables confidential, unlinkable, and auditable transactions. They have a great team/tech and look to be gaining a lot of traction. I plan on holding this one for a while.
The link below will take you directly to the token on Sigma so you can instantly buy. I’ll start doing this from now on to give you immediate access to my calls, so make sure to switch over if you haven’t. I may consider enabling copy trading as well on the bot ✅
👉 Trade on Sigma (new multichain bot I'm using): https://t.me/SigmaTrading3_bot?start=xCryptoData-PRVT6TB7uss3FrUd2D9xs2zqDBsa3GbMJMwCQsgmeta
Tutorials: https://docs.sigma.win/getting-started/setup-guide
Use Debridge to bridge between networks: https://app.debridge.finance/
X: https://x.com/UmbraPrivacy
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What would you like to see more of in this group?
+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The macro mood is tentative but leaning bullish as the Fed dovishness boosts risk assets while the dollar weakens nearly 7% YTD. The Dow is up, and markets are pricing a 94% chance of a Fed rate cut next week. Meanwhile, Europe holds steady with limited ECB easing expectations, supporting euro strength and influencing crypto demand. Overall, liquidity injections and ETF flow revivals support recent crypto gains despite ongoing structural market strain:
Key Metrics and News Items on My Radar
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink softens stance on crypto, calling Bitcoin an “asset of fear” but issues a bullish price outlook near $2T market cap.
- BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF volume topped $1.8B in two hours; institutional ETF inflows surge post-Vanguard ban reversal.
- Strategy firm builds $1.44B USD reserve amid sell-off, plans lending once US banks deploy custody and lending infrastructure.
- Michael Saylor battles to avoid an $8B crypto domino collapse; some skepticism remains from traders like John Bollinger about quick BTC recovery.
- Solana is consolidating gains above $143 with resistance around $145-$150; extended moves above $150 could target $180 in the medium term.
- Institutional buyers continue accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum at scale, including Wintermute, Binance, BitMEX, and Tom Lee’s sizeable ETH purchase.
- Macro context shows rising Dow, Fed liquidity influx, and strong euro/dollar moves influencing crypto market flows.
Summary ✍️
Crypto is in a mixed but cautiously constructive phase. Bitcoin’s rebound above $92,000 amid heavy ETF volumes and institutional accumulation sets the stage for possible higher targets. Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade signals network strength despite lower monthly transactions, while altcoins like Solana show signs of momentum. Macro liquidity and expected Fed easing support risk assets, but ongoing structural market risks and IMF warnings underscore the need for measured positioning. This looks more like a reset with room for upside than a clear trend shift.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
Bitcoin is trading near $93,200, holding above a key bullish trend line support at $92,000. Immediate resistance clusters between $94,000 and $95,000, with a larger breakout zone up to $98,000 if momentum sustains. These levels matter as a confirmed break above $94,000 could trigger short squeezes and test $100K targets. On the downside, support around $91,200 and $88,850 (50% Fib) remain critical to guard the bullish thesis, but failure below $86,500 could dilute this view.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
Ethereum sits above $3,180 as resistance levels are layered from $3,250 to $3,320. The Fusaka upgrade underpins network fundamentals and should aid scaling. If ETH breaks above $3,250, the path toward $3,450-$3,540 opens. A drop below $3,120 risks a correction toward $3,050 or the 50% Fib near $2,980. Current MACD and RSI point to moderate bullish momentum, but ETH remains range-bound until these resistance zones clear.
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Quote of the day ✍️
"To be calm is the highest achievement of the self."
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The broader market remains cautious but tech assets and crypto show signs of rebound amid easing Fed policy risks. Federal Reserve’s end to quantitative tightening and anticipation of a December rate cut are supporting risk assets, while equity indices softened recently. Crypto investors watch institutional interest rise, with ETF inflows picking up even as volatility stays elevated.
Major Macro News Events Impacting Prices
- US Federal Reserve officially ended quantitative tightening; markets pricing in a December rate cut at 94% (via Polymarket).
- Vanguard ($11 trillion) and Bank of America recommend up to 4% crypto allocations, signaling growing institutional confidence.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF trading volumes hit record highs, with CEO likening current tokenization to early internet days.
- Broader stocks declined; S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow soften alongside rising US yields.
- Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remains low at 28, indicating persistent market fear despite price gains.
Key Crypto News Events Affecting Prices
- Bitcoin recently rose above $93,000 supported by washout of $457M in short liquidations; strong bounce from $84,000 lows noted.
- Ethereum reclaimed $3,000 ahead of its Fusaka mainnet upgrade, promising scaling and UX improvements scheduled for Dec 3.
- Binance CEO CZ predicts multiple new all-time highs for Bitcoin and broader crypto, citing institutional inflows.
- Grayscale Research rejects the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle; bullish on potential new all-time highs in 2026.
- Bank of America’s rollout of Bitcoin ETFs to 15,000 advisers accelerates institutional access.
- Solana rebounds above $140, consolidating near resistance but remains down 55% from all-time highs.
- MicroStrategy may sell some Bitcoin if market net asset value drops below 1; shares down 40% YTD amid price volatility.
Summary ✍️
Markets are navigating a delicate phase. Institutional adoption continues to strengthen with major banks endorsing crypto allocations and ETF volumes surging. Bitcoin’s recent bounce off multi-week lows above $84,000 shows technical resilience despite a vulnerable environment compounded by liquidations and macro uncertainty. Ethereum’s upcoming network upgrade is a positive catalyst, supported by whale accumulation. Altcoins broadly follow suit with notable short-term rallies.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
Bitcoin is trading near $93,265 after recovering from $84,000 lows. Support zones to watch include $90,800, $86,000–$88,000, and the critical weekly low at $80,600. Resistance clusters form around $93,000–$93,500 with $97,000 the key weekly close level needed to shift momentum. BTC remains below its 21 and 50-week EMAs, which are converging and could lead to further downside if not reclaimed.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
Ethereum reclaimed $3,000 and is testing resistance near $3,050. Immediate support lies around $2,970, with a key support zone between $2,700–$2,800. A sustained break above $3,050 could open paths toward $3,270. Despite recent sharp liquidations reducing open interest, whale accumulation and liquidity provider activity suggest possible base-building ahead of the Fusaka upgrade on Dec 3. Momentum indicators favor bulls but caution remains given medium-term EMA trends.
TL;DR
Institutional crypto adoption builds momentum with strong ETF inflows and bank endorsements. Bitcoin bounced above $93,000 after holding critical support near $86,700 amidst elevated liquidations. Ethereum nears key resistance ahead of a major upgrade, with whale activity signaling potential strength. Market remains volatile and technically fragile, awaiting clear breaks to sustain new trends.
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Quote of the day ✍️
"No man is free who is not master of himself."
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
Yesterday marked a pivotal day for the market, with the Federal Reserve officially concluding its quantitative tightening (QT) program and Vanguard reversing its long-standing anti-crypto policy with allowing its clients to trade crypto ETFs and Bitcoin trading starting today. These developments, alongside building anticipation for a Fed rate cut on December 10th (90% chance on Polymarket), signal a shift toward greater liquidity and institutional acceptance, both highly bullish for risk-on assets such as crypto:
Major News Events
- The Fed halted its balance sheet reduction which removes a major liquidity drain, effectively acting as "de facto easing" by stabilizing reserves and preventing further stress in funding markets.
- Vanguard ($11 trillion asset manager), previously a vocal crypto skeptic (once calling it "speculative noise"), announced it will allow its 50 million clients to trade third-party crypto ETFs and mutual funds starting today (December 2nd). This includes spot products for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, but excludes memecoins or leveraged funds.
- MicroStrategy slashed its 2025 earnings forecast due to BTC's weak run
- Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade Dec 3rd could cause a further pump in the asset if history repeats (similar to the Pectra upgrade in May 2025)
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins says innovation exemption for crypto firms is coming in January.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says bank regulators are working on crypto stablecoin rules.
Summary ✍️
Ending QT halts $2.4 trillion in drained liquidity, historically sparking risk-on rallies (e.g., 2019 QT pause preceded Bitcoin's surge). Analysts like Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) and Tom Lee (Fundstrat) predict this could ignite a "supercycle," with Bitcoin potentially hitting new highs by late January 2026 as excess reserves flow into high-yield assets. Vanguard opening to 50 million clients could accelerate ETF adoption. Spot Bitcoin ETFs already hold $125 billion (BlackRock's IBIT at $70B). A rate cut Dec 10th would lower borrowing costs, boosting risk appetite and ETF inflows (e.g., $5.95B weekly in October). Combined with QT's end, this could mirror 2020's post-easing Bitcoin boom, though volatility risks persist if inflation data (e.g., upcoming PCE) disappoints.
BTC's major support remains 86k, 78k, and 68-72k with resistance at 93k. ETH support remains its weekly 200 EMA at 2670 and horizontal support at 2560 with resistance at 2930 and 3050. SOL's support is at 125 and its weekly 200 EMA at 117, with major support at 103 with resistance at 145 and 155/167. During this time, maintain patience and wait for prices to come to you.
Overall, yesterday's shifts point to a friendlier macro environment for crypto, potentially reversing recent outflows. Markets are pricing in relief, but watch FOMC (Dec 9-10) for confirmation. Dovish signals could trigger the next leg up.
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Quote of the day ✍️
"Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.”
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+2
📊 Market Update 📊
The market continues to be volatile as recent news came out about Japan's 2-year yield rising to 1% for the first time since 2008. This was the main reason for the drop and could be the beginning of another yen carry trade unwind, depending on how quickly BOJ confirms tightening, global risk sentiment, and USD/JPY behavior in the next 24–72 hours. We also have Jerome Powell speaking on QT ending today so volatility will continue to be at an ATH. Below are some major news items over the past 24h:
Key Metrics and News Items on My Radar
- Japan's 1% rise in the 2-Year yield causes over $200M in liquidations in less than 4 hours
- Yearn Finance 'Incident': DeFi protocol Yearn reported an issue in its yETH pool, contributing to early Asian selling pressure on ETH and majors; no funds lost, but it amplified volatility in yield-bearing assets.
- China's Crypto Crackdown Reaffirmed: Multi-agency meeting reiterated bans and flagged stablecoin AML risks, pressuring regional sentiment despite global adoption gains.
- Ripple's Singapore Expansion: MAS approved broader payment scopes for Ripple's Major Payment Institution license, enabling end-to-end licensed services; boosts XRP's cross-border utility amid 87% Polymarket odds for a December Fed rate cut.
- Tether Mining Pullback: Shut down Uruguay operations (30 staff cut) after energy tariff failures, despite $500M initial plans; signals rising costs in proof-of-work mining.
- On-Chain Shifts: Glassnode noted rising wallets with >1,000 BTC (smart money accumulation); CEX net outflows of 19,541 BTC, led by Binance/Bitfinex.
- Silver reaches an ATH above $58 as Gold breaks $4250
- Elon Musk says Bitcoin is a true currency based on energy.
Upcoming Events
- Dec 1st - Powell speech and QT ends
- Dec 3rd - ETH Fusaka Upgrade
- Dec 5th - PCE data
- Dec 10th - FOMC Meeting (88% chance of a cut)
BTC's major support remains 86k, 78k, and 68-72k with resistance at 93k. ETH support remains its weekly 200 EMA at 2670 and horizontal support at 2560 with resistance at 2930 and 3050. SOL's support is at 125 and its weekly 200 EMA at 117, with major support at 103. During this time, maintain patience and wait for prices to come to you. The market was already front-running the upcoming catalysts of a Fed rate cut and QT ending so I expect further volatility ahead, especially with the recent Japan market news coming into play.
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The market has shown signs of stabilization following a volatile month that saw a $600 billion wipeout from the total market cap. Trading volumes dipped 33% to $82.19 billion over the past 24 hours, reflecting reduced activity as many digest macroeconomic headwinds and await key U.S. economic data like the upcoming PCE inflation report. Sentiment remains in "Fear" territory, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck between 20-28 (down from a late-2024 peak of 84 "Extreme Greed"):
Key Metrics and News Items on My Radar
- The Fed’s anticipated $6.6 trillion December balance sheet flip could trigger a major shockwave across the markets. Powell’s December 1st speech is shaping up as a critical catalyst for price direction.
- Discussions have centered on Tether's aggressive BTC/gold buys as a hedge against potential Fed rate cuts, with Arthur Hayes calling it an "interest rate trade" that could expose USDT to solvency risks if BTC drops 30%
- Broader chatter highlighted whale accumulation (e.g., >1,000 BTC holders buying the dip) and optimism around institutional pilots like New York's USDC-based UBI trial.
- Miner data points to a local BTC bottom near $80K as miners hit an underpaid regime, historically a strong buy signal, setting the stage for potential sustained uptrend continuation.
- JPMorgan launched a leveraged structured note tied to BlackRock's IBIT ETF, offering 1.5x upside through 2028 with downside protection (unless >30% drop). This marks a pivot from past anti-crypto rhetoric, signaling Wall Street's bet on a 2026 BTC rally to $170K-$240K.
- Gold continues to outperform crypto in liquidity and trust for institutional flows, challenging the safe-haven narrative around Bitcoin.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
Bitcoin continues to hold above $90K with support clusters near $86,000–$88,000 and key short-term resistance between $93,000-$96,000. The daily StochRSI is still in overbought territory but the RSI is still fairly low, so any pullback will be for buying.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH continues to face volatility near $3,000. Key support sits around $2,820–$2,930 and $2,650, with strong resistance at $3,050 and $3,270. Its daily StochRSI is overbought, but just like with BTC, any pullback will be for buying. I have my bids set at major support levels and am exercising patience. A break above $3,050 and we will see much higher.
For those in my private group, we hit TP2 on BTC and profited 61% 💰
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+3
📊 Market Update 📊
The market is starting to show signs of relief heading into the end of November as our indicators called the reversal perfectly. BTC and ETH had a tentative recovery amid fading selling pressure and increasing certainty about Fed rate cuts in December. But macro forces and lingering volatility keep the overall picture mixed, with institutional flows and retail sentiment diverging. Today’s update walks through key metrics, major headlines, and technicals shaping trader psychology:
Key Metrics and News Items on My Radar
- Fed rate cut odds now above 80% for December, fueling expectations for liquidity support, though macro uncertainty persists.
- Bitcoin briefly dipped near $86K but had a nice relief pump to 91k; whales continue accumulating while retail shows signs of capitulation.
- Funding rates for BTC futures have turned negative across major exchanges, indicating a shift to short-side dominance and possible trader capitulation.
- A $13.3B Bitcoin options expiry looms this Friday, with implicit bearish positioning and key resistance near $93K-96K.
- JPMorgan is promoting Bitcoin structured notes geared to bullish scenarios over the medium term, betting on BTC surging by 2028.
- Ethereum remains under pressure, but is holding above $3000 as whales like Bitmine keep accumulating
- Solana ETF inflows hit record highs, supporting price rebound as network activity climbs
- XRP’s smart contract rollout marks a distinct approach from Ethereum and Solana, focusing on integrating with existing ledger features rather than replicating EVM.
Summary ✍️
Market structure is still fragile but showing early signs that downside pressure may be easing. The recent negative flip in BTC funding rates alongside whale accumulation suggests a potential near-term shift from forced long-liquidation to growing short conviction, which can ironically set the stage for a squeeze move higher. Meanwhile, macro tailwinds around Fed easing are boosting risk asset appetite, yet institutional flow data remain mixed, but turning positive. I view this as a phase of consolidation and potential accumulation rather than a clear trend reversal. Patience and risk management remain key.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
Bitcoin is holding above $90K with support clusters at $86,000–$88,000 and the key short-term resistance between $93,000-$96,000. The daily RSI and StochRSI broke out perfectly out of their descending wedge and continue to show strength. Be mindful that the StochRSI is nearing overbought territory so we could see a pullback within the next few days if BTC reaches its major resistance. As long as we can close the daily above $90,000, I remain bullish.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
Ethereum continues to face volatility near $3,000. Key support sits around $2,820–$2,930 and $2,650, with strong resistance at $3,050 and $3,270. Recent action shows a modest recovery attempt, with price breaking a bearish trend line near $2,950. Bulls need to push and settle firmly above $3,000 to shift momentum; otherwise, further downside toward $2,800 and potentially $2,650 may come into focus. Watch for volume and momentum cues over these levels for clues on the next directional move.
TL;DR
The market is showing early signs of relief as BTC and ETH bounce off recent lows, helped by rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut. BTC funding rates flipped negative, signaling trader capitulation while whales quietly accumulate—setting up a potential short squeeze. A massive $13.3B options expiry on Friday and resistance at $93K–$96K keep volatility elevated. ETH is stabilizing above $3K but needs a strong reclaim to avoid revisiting lower supports. Overall sentiment is cautiously improving, but the market remains in a consolidation phase where patience and disciplined risk management matter most.
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+1
The market is doing absolutely amazing and we called the long perfectly 👌
For those paying attention to my X, I posted my thesis over the past few days:
https://x.com/thecryptodata/status/1993761083543241093
For those in my private group, we caught a nice long 💰
👉 We currently have a Black Friday sale going on until 11/30 for anyone that joins the group before then. The links are in the announcement channel and you will be able to lock-in the discounted rates once inside 🔒
Join below, then see the Black Friday discounted rate links once inside 👇
💳 Credit Card - https://whop.com/datas-alpha-circle/upgrade-elite-access/
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Quote of the day ✍️
"No man is free who is not master of himself.”
❌ BEWARE OF SCAMMERS! I WILL NEVER DM YOU FIRST! ❌
