Davincij15 | Private Group

🔥I'm still thinking about a new project One that anyone can understand how it works and make money with it. Now we are finalizing a bot on AI, which will trade and bring stable profits. The results are about 5-7% net profit per week

👀 BTC has three possible scenarios for the next six months: Bullish: If the ratio breaks above 1.0, the price could reach $150K–175K, repeating the pattern of the 2017 and 2021 cycles. Baseline: If the ratio stays in the 0.8–1.0 range, the price may consolidate between $90K–110K, with participants holding their positions but not increasing volume. Bearish: If the ratio drops below 0.75, short-term holders may start taking profits, leading to a correction down to $70K–85K.

BlackRock ETF bought (https://x.com/arkham/status/1915711478449008900) $1.2 billion worth of BTC in a week 💸 The investment giant now holds 2.77% of all bitcoin issuance. Sailor, catch up 🕕

Crypto funds record losses and move to quality assets Over the first quarter of 2025, liquid crypto funds suffered losses of up to 70% - this was reported by several investors on condition of anonymity. Funds with a focus on altcoins, including Solana, were particularly hard hit. Investors are now focusing on assets with a transparent income model, active users and clear growth logic. ▪️ The main reasons for the drawdown are the decline in Solana, macro-level uncertainty, Fed rhetoric and trade duties. Bitcoin has lost about 10% since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has lost about 50%, altcoins have even deeper drawdowns. ▪️ Directional-strategies (bets on the growth or fall of assets) showed the worst results. Market-neutral and delta-neutral strategies (arbitrage, yield pharming) were more resilient. ▪️ Funds are reducing the number of assets in portfolios and leaving only 6-10 projects with strong metrics. ▪️ The “buy tokens at a discount before listing and sell at a profit on day one” model is becoming a thing of the past due to long lockups and increasing business requirements. Specific tokens are not named in the material, but the attention of funds is shifting towards DeFi protocols and individual L1 projects. With the arrival of regulatory clarity (especially in the U.S.), the demand for high-quality liquid tokens will grow, and the crypto market will increasingly resemble the traditional financial sector.

📈Bitcoin remains under pressure from long-term sellers But there is good news: according to the Glassnode chart, if their pressure decreases by another 0.1%, we will get a yellow bar, which is quite rare in the history of BTC, which means going below the pressure zone The peak sell-offs in this cycle occurred at the levels of $500,000 and $97,000 Thus, the BTC-ship may soon leave the bear cove to the open sea.

📊 Probability of recession in 2025 The chart shows a comparison between three sources: polling results from Polymarket, Bloomberg surveys, and a Bloomberg model based on the spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury bond yields. According to Polymarket, the probability of a recession is highest. Will the crowd turn out to be right this time? 🤨

🔍In 2025, the U.S. Treasury will issue over $31 trillion in Treasury bonds, representing about 109% of GDP and 144% of the monetary aggregate M2 This is the highest level in history! This could positively impact risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies, by strengthening market demand for “hard assets” (bitcoin among others) as a hedge against inflation

Early 2025 results in crypto-currencies: the market cooled, but trends shifted At the start of the year, the market rose thanks to expectations linked to Donald Trump's inauguration, but by the end of the quarter, it was trending downwards. Prices and investor activity plummeted. Analysts at crypto-currency aggregator CoinGecko noted in a market report for the first quarter of 2025 that the focus had shifted. ▪️ Bitcoin has gained the most strength during the downturn. It increased its dominance, while Ethereum lost ground. Among altcoins, memcoins were the hardest hit, but interest remains. ▪️ The DeFi sector experienced capital outflows, but amid the general decline, promising niches - real-world tokenized assets (RWAs) and projects with collateralized debt positions - stood out. ▪️ Among blockchain networks, Solana, Base and Berachain stood out during the quarter. The latter only appeared in February and immediately showed a strong influx of liquidity. ▪️ Users paid particular attention to crypto-currencies in the Made in USA category. This trend intensified after the start of the formation of a crypto-currency reserve on the initiative of the Trump administration.

📈 Ethereum's market share falls faster than altcoins Bitcoin continues to increase its dominance

Corporate bitcoin buys today: 🤑Investment company HL Asia Holdings added (https://t.co/WeNzwjvuVz) another 10 bitcoins to their bitcoin treasury They now have 28.88 BTC in their balance sheet 💰 Earlier, Michael Saylor's Strategy purchased (https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-acquires-3459-btc-and-now-holds-531644-btc_04-14-2025) 3,459 BTC worth $285 million They have 531,644 BTC on their balance sheet.

❓🤔 On the one hand, the continuation of recovery is expected on the background of stabilization of stock indices, on the other hand, there are still risks from the US foreign policy rhetoric and inflation expectations. The focus remains on the probability of a Fed rate cut at the May 7 meeting, which, according to CME data, rose to 40%.

What will happen to bitcoin in the coming week Bitcoin is trading around $84,600 on Sunday, April 13, having added about 2% since the end of last week. The market remains influenced by US trade policy and Fed rate expectations. Bitcoin showed sharp fluctuations last week amid President Donald Trump's statements on new duties and then recovered, partly due to signals of monetary policy easing. The cryptocurrency continues to show a strong correlation with stock indices. Increased volatility persists, and market participants do not see a stable trend. The resistance remains the zone of $85,000 - $86,300, its overcoming can open the way to $89,200 and higher. However, in case of a pullback below the current levels, the sellers' pressure is not excluded.

📊 Bitcoin's 10-day average volatility was lower than that of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes Trump has made a windfall 🌬

💰📈 S&P 500 volatility exceeded bitcoin volatility According to Bloomberg, the 10-day historical volatility of the S&P 500 index (white line on the chart) reached 76.8%, surpassing bitcoin's 72.9% (orange line). Eric Balchunas, an ETF market analyst at Bloomberg, called such a level “crazy.” “77% standard deviation is crazy. Usually the figure is 10-15%,” he wrote in X. The surge in U.S. stock market volatility coincided with a period of volatility following the imposition of new trade duties by the Donald Trump administration.

❤️ Thanks to Trump and our bot. +1896% profit for the week

📈 Markets went up again after the duties were lifted Those who listened to me managed to buy what I advised in time

🔥💰While everyone is panicking and all the markets are falling - we are making big money! I'll give you all the information later.

🔥TRADFI vs CRYPTO

🌪⚡️A storm in the global economy... But the cryptocurrency is still holding its own, even though it is having a very hard time right now, it is feeling pretty good about itself Soon I will write you my vision of the future.