Myanmar War Map

There is confirmation that the Arakha Army has full control of Shwe Hle bridge, between Thandwe and Toungup. It is reported that heavy fighting is now ongoing close to the Tha Htay Hydropower Project, where government forces established an artillery base some months before.

More details have emerged about the movement of new troops to the Myawaddy area. It was previously suggested that these had come from Shwe Ko Ko, but they turn out to be government troops who came through a mountain pass to the north of the main area of fighting. It is stated that they were escorted along this route by a "Karen ceasefire organisation". The source does not name the organisation, but the description matches the Karen Border Guard Force who are heavily active in the area. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/junta-reinforcements-myawaddy-still-fail-recapture-knlas-control-over-road-access-kawkareik

If true, then they will attempt a two pronged attack on the KNLA forces in Thingan Nyaung and the Dawna mountain range, to force a breakthrough. This campaign is an important indicator for how the war will continue to develop. The government is expending significant military and political resource in trying to regain access to the Myawaddy crossing. If they succeed, it will be a important victory bringing both political and economic prizes. If they fail, they will appear weaker than ever before, further encouraging rebel groups to continue fighting.

There are reports that 500 troops have been sent from the Karen Border Force stronghold of Shwe Ko Ko to support government forces in Myawaddy. According to the source, there is a plan for this new force to support the government counterattack that is trying to reach Myawaddy from the west.

This latest attack follows the total destruction of another bridge on the main highway, earlier in May. There are reports that since then, military and civilian vehicles have been using small roads to the south to make the route from Kyaikto to Bilin. The latest attack affects the next best alternative route. The one remaining route crosses Sai Indra Bridge further south, but also crosses dirt roads that may be difficult for large trucks and military equipment. While there are alternatives for the government, using ships and/or planes to maintain supply routes to the southern states, these will also become less reliable during the upcoming monsoon season, potentially leaving significant garrisons partially cut off from the core regions.

Another road bridge has been partially destroyed in northern Mon State between Kyaikto and Bilin. One side of the bridge is destroyed, while the other remains passable.

Cyclone Remal is now expected to make landfall around the border of Bangladesh and India, close to the city of Kolkata, with wind speeds of around 100kph. Rakhine state is likely to experience heavy winds and rains which may impact fighting in Maungdaw and Thandwe. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/cyclone-remal-to-impact-west-bengal-adjoining-bangladesh-imd-shares-update/articleshow/110366826.cms

Fighting has now entered Waingmaw Town with gunfire reported close to the police station in Ward No. 3

Reports of another bridge destroyed on the vital supply route into southern Myanmar. This time, a railway bridge between Don Wun and Thein Seik.

Potential cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal. Some forecasts predict it heading towards Eastern India, while others predict a north-easterly path, taking it towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. https://www.cyclocane.com/remal-storm-tracker/