متاح الآن! بحث تيليغرام 2025 — أهم رؤى العام 
Threading on the Edge
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Owner : @arndxt Newsletter: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo TG: https://t.me/threadingontheedge Farcaster: https://warpcast.com/arndxt Lens: https://lenster.xyz/u/arndxt
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منشورات القناة
providing liquidity in a prediction market is the most misread trade in the space.
on screen it looks like market making but in risk and P&L it is the bookmaker's trade.
the LP earns a house edge on ordinary flow, pays adverse selection to informed flow and is forced to carry the irreducible residual to settlement, because a single binary's payoff is not spanned by any liquid hedge.
you don't survive that contract by contract. you price the edge, eat the selection, and underwrite the residual in a broad, imperfectly correlated, well capitalized book.
so the binding constraint on durable depth is loss-absorbing capital reserved against the correlated tail, not spread.
today's bootstrapping playbook is mis-targeted. it scores displayed size and tightness, a spread-capture proxy, instead of capital placed at risk.
it buys depth that is thin and mercenary. gone the moment informed flow arrives.
so the real race was never tighter spreads. it's who can underwrite the tail and still be standing.
that's the prediction market that doesn't thin out the moment it matters.
https://x.com/embrron/status/2067009649946382753
| 2 | another underappreciated angle for $HYPE is regulation.
so i compared it with the chart of $MU, that also explains why $HYPE is starting to track US equity momentum more closely.
if semis, memory, AI infrastructure, and pre-IPO narratives remain strong, Hyperliquid benefits from the same risk appetite. more attention means more activity. more activity means more fees. more fees strengthen the token narrative.
the CFTC chair mentioning Hyperliquid has effectively pushed perpetual futures and onchain derivatives into the mainstream policy conversation
these products are increasingly being discussed in the same breath as the future structure of US derivatives markets.
the bull case for $HYPE is that it has become one of the cleanest live examples of what a 24/7, onchain, capital-efficient derivatives venue can look like.
the counterargument is that NYSE, CME and other major exchanges can eventually move toward 24/7, 365 trading too. technically, they can. but they have not, because legacy markets are constrained by regulation, settlement rails, intermediaries, clearing, market structure, and institutional habits.
that is the important part.
the US is clearly trying to onshore markets that previously lived offshore. if crypto perps become a regulated product category in the US, the market will start repricing the entire sector.
the immediate risk is competition from regulated venues. but the second-order effect is more interesting: regulatory attention validates the market structure itself.
this is where $HYPE becomes different from most crypto tokens.
its value is tied to exchange activity, revenue, buybacks, attention, and now potentially regulatory narrative:
- its the verticalization of crypto perps, prediction markets, pre-IPO speculation, equity beta, and 24/7 trading infrastructure.
- it is a bet that the future of speculation moves toward faster, global, always-on venues, where users want exposure to crypto, equities, private markets, event contracts, and macro narratives in one place.
the risk is that regulation cuts both ways.
if the CFTC opens the door for US-regulated perps, Hyperliquid gets validation, but it also faces a much more serious competitive landscape from compliant US venues.
whether @HyperliquidX can stay product-wise ahead, even as the regulated world starts copying the market it helped prove
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2067144133890961467 | 204 |
| 3 | i don’t think the next phase of prediction markets that win will become a place to bet on everything.
that feels too broad and we will have to take into account the context
world cup season is actually a good starting point because sports already has attention, emotion, disagreement and real-time info flow.
that’s where i believe prediction markets make the most sense.
but what caught my attention is the combination of design underneath
- AI-native markets
- productive capital
- onchain settlement
- real-time information pricing
that combination is more interesting than a normal prediction market.
- because the big problem with most prediction markets is capital efficiency
- you take a view, your funds sit there, and you wait for resolution
- that works best for simple speculation, but it at this point, it wont be financilized
so if @InsightXHQ can turn prediction positions into productive capital while using AI agents to help price, route, and react to information faster, then we should see prediction market going well with the InfoFi infrastructure on @Mantle_Official
beyond just betting
Mantle is already pushing into DeFi, AI, yield, and consumer apps.
i think that prediction markets are still early and most frontends are not good enough yet.
but the winning ones will be verticalized, contextual, fast, and embedded where attention already exists.
world cup is a good test.
we're not the endgame yet.
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2066906097408262654 | 264 |
| 4 | CFTC Chair on Hyperliquid:
→ He thinks HL is transforming the US markets with their 24/7 offering
→ Smart contract logic automates a lot of what exchanges have to comply with
→ ADL is an unconventional mechanism, not good or bad
→ Modernizing the rules to bring things onshore
https://x.com/_stevenhl/status/2066521630000685221 | 323 |
| 5 | so for now, my read is simple:
SEMIS and MEMORY remain the leadership group.
NEOCLOUD still has selective strength, especially $NBIS.
CHINA may be bottoming, but not necessarily leading.
NUCLEAR and POWER probably need broader risk appetite before they work again.
yields are broadly lower across the curve, with the 10Y around 4.47% and the 30Y near 4.96%.
US equities rallied overnight, largely in line with what i had been looking for. the key shift was that the forced selling flows started to taper off, allowing high-beta semis to catch a bid again. names like $NBIS, $ALAB, $MRVL, and $CRDO all participated in the rebound. within memory, $SNDK continued to outperform $MU, which remains an important relative-strength signal.
now let’s talk asia.
$KOSPI is up 7%, while $NIKKEI is up around 3.5%. no major surprise there. KOSPI has effectively become a semi and memory proxy in this cycle. when memory works, KOREA works. the index is no longer trading like a normal domestic equity market. it is now one of the clearest expressions of global AI, memory, and semiconductor risk appetite.
on the other hand, $HSTECH and $BABA have lagged badly this year. with the potential resolution of the IRAN war now looming, i am calling for a bottom in $BABA and $KWEB. this does not mean i expect them to outperform DRAM, semis, or AI infrastructure names. it simply means the relentless downside pressure may finally be ending. the trade here is not “CHINA beats semis.” the trade is “CHINA stops going down.”
looking at US performance overnight, the NEOCLOUD space was led lower by $CRWV, while $NBIS remained relatively unscathed. $NBIS continues to trade with plot armour, and with NASDAQ inclusion now announced, i would expect continued relative strength there.
sectors like nuclear continued to show weak performance. that makes sense. risk appetite is only just starting to come back, and traders are still being selective. in early-stage risk-on rallies, capital usually flows first into the highest-conviction leaders. the lower-priority baskets, like nuclear and power, tend to perform later only when the rally broadens out.
tonight, all eyes are on the $SPCX IPO. i have no dog in that fight, but if anything, i would not be too eager to fade ELON or short SPCX on day one.
good luck.
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2065426188999504292 | 507 |
| 6 | As Anthropic might roll out Mythos tomorrow, I highly recommend you install these security extensions ↓
https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2064341748281921712?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg | 517 |
| 7 | pre-market thoughts 10-06-2026
the macro backdrop is not meaningfully different from yesterday.
US yields remain elevated but stable, with the 10Y around 4.53% and the 30Y near 5.01%. for now, the bond market is not sending a fresh shock signal.
that matters because the equity move still looks more flow-driven than fundamentally driven.
√ asia
√ US
√ AI, earnings, IPO
√ gold, bitcoin
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2064611224428675098
https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/pre-market-thoughts-10-06-2026 | 546 |
| 8 |  some big news ahead of the day | 433 |
| 9 | Everyone asks me if you can MM profitably on @tread_fi. This guy did $70-80M in volume over 2 weeks—profitably. Team of 5, he's a quant and one of the top market makers on @HyperliquidX. I've been picking his brain for days and been constantly talking with him about how we can educate people to tread profitably.
Here's how he does it.
https://x.com/sportytechworld/status/2064292859847840075?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg | 442 |
| 10 | Look at the protocols that have actually scaled.
https://x.com/thelearningpill/status/2063987416932000077 | 484 |
| 11 | i think the market is underestimating variational.
my original target was $100/point.
after running the comp against lighter’s tge, i think that was too conservative.
i’ve moved my target closer to $185/point and even that may not fully price in what variational is becoming.
the easy comp is
$LIT
launched at $3b+ fdv with a 25% airdrop.
but the problem with comparing variational to lighter is that variational is not really playing the same game.
- @Lighter_xyz is a perp dex.
- @variational_io is trying to become an onchain global brokerage layer, with perps as only one part of the stack.
that changes the valuation framework.
most perp dexs are fighting for the same crypto-native leverage traders:
- variational’s real edge is its RFQ liquidity model.
- orderbook dexs need native liquidity for every market. every new market creates fragmentation, market maker cost, and incentive spend.
- variational uses an rfq model where liquidity can be routed through aggregated sources across cexs, dexs, and tradfi dealers.
that is why they can list hundreds of markets without needing to bootstrap every orderbook from zero.
this is the part most people are missing.
rwa markets are higher-value assets, with a larger addressable market, wider user base, and potentially better monetization than crypto perps alone.
you get 12% more points boosts and bronze tier with my ref link: https://omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNINOX | 471 |
| 12 | i think people are going to overthink the next few months.
keep coming back to the same thought, just stack the one asset
between now and November, the goal is to accumulate as much BTC as possible.
position first, overthink later
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2063635194209603734 | 476 |
| 13 | DeFi yield trackers worth bookmarking ↓
https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2063169020917117050 | 576 |
| 14 | Trump has been dropping hints for months about which US stocks you should buy? The biggest headache for regular folks playing the US stock market is not knowing what to buy.
https://x.com/0xMulight/status/2063072431984771477 | 475 |
| 15 | 10 Narratives worth keeping an eye on
Agentic Commerce
Consumer
Decentralized AI
Onchain AI
Onchain Inference
Perps
Privacy
Prediction Markets
RWAs
Robotics
https://x.com/0xJeff/status/2063188343173853433 | 470 |
| 16 | It's an article suggesting that if you've installed Codex but don't know what to do with it, try making videos to earn some money. The key point is that by attaching these 6 video production Skills uploaded to GitHub to Codex, you can have Codex handle the entire video creation process, from planning to editing. Just pick and install the ones that fit the type of videos you want to make.
https://x.com/realkimchiboy/status/2062780941861609716?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg | 483 |
| 17 | we are not in a good position to be in crypto right now
i have a couple thoughts after this $ZEC incident:
1) the whole crypto/defi is underestimating the effects of ai as a threat
2) i dont think i can see $ZEC the way as before
3) privacy is not in high demand, its a basic human right but we dont really care much about it
- we inherently fail to realize that privacy can be a feature and at the same time a threat/bug
- in an industry heavily dependent on software, we are in probably one of the most critical turning point like never before with the rise of ai
- we have been given a taste of the damage of exploits done in the first half or 2026 and can expect more ai threats in the next 12 months
- the risk to earn yields in crypto/defi is increasingly inproportionately skewed
- cybersecurity measures will be every more essential
- we will begin to see protocols to invest in proper insurances
regarding the $ZEC exploit, we dont really know if the exploit really went through due to its private-designed pool
but i could supposedly it did because there was an incentive for the exploiter to do so, pump
$ZEC
price coordinating across some of the biggest named kols and then dump it
> hayes made the entire CT as this exit liq for $HYPE
> then dumped his holy trinity bags
> says will release a post on market top
> then dumped his entire stack of $ZEC
previously, he also dumped his hype bag right after his $500 prediction, so i am not surprised at all
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2062921319520620896 | 477 |
| 18 | Onchain card platforms just set a record $227.6M in May, up from $148.6M in March. It's clear that the hobby is printing those numbers and it's moving onchain faster every month.
And now we've the catalyst and it's the biggest one that exists. Nothing on the planet pulls attention like a World Cup.
1. FIFA projects up to 6B people will engage with 2026
2. Across 104 games and a first-ever 48 teams
3. Around $80B in global impact
https://x.com/YashasEdu/status/2062505305649619179 | 405 |
| 19 | Community alert: I suggest avoiding Rain Protocol ($8.8B mkt cap; top 15) at all costs. As a prediction market RAIN has few users, minimal product traction, no notable backers, & a team with little track record in our industry.
I traced the RAIN team addresses onchain and the source of funds originate via the Gems hot wallet and CEX deposit addresses that previously moved funds for failed projects like Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) & TOMI at the same time indicating potential overlap between teams:
0xa35e61cb836ae15f2d7d400efb49bda7222b98bc linked to RAIN deployer sent dust on Oct 14, 2025 at 3:31:47 pm UTC to 0xbac1
0xa810e14e2ee46e1e25e56bcf280208b78242d5d1 linked to TOMI team multisig & CEX deposit 0x6a6 sent dust on Oct 14, 2025 at 3:31:11 pm UTC to 0xbac1
0xbac19cb634c34baf7670263ccc74806a2d004fb0 received from 0xf205 in Dec 2025 which received from a DOP multisig
0xa81 transferred to 0x2db0e5d3678ace8db1c400844b2ed9a0af331a66 in Feb 2025 which sent to the same CEX deposit address as DOP deployer 0x366.
RAIN's price appears it is being manipulated onchain with addresses linked to the deployer via Uni V3 LP with spot transfers obfuscated via Gems hot wallet:
0x7c10f934c84a0aefaffd3334463c245a311cc967
0x7706342d38d3fd957c7061ac87a98f21f1cb53aa
RAIN has a DAT named Enlivex (Nasdaq listed) that announced a $212M treasury strategy in November 2025 but has no comps to Kalshi or Polymarket to justify the amount. Defillama reports RAIN TVL at $27.2M on Arbitrum however it's entirely in its own illiquid native token & $1m annual fees.
TOMI, DOP & Sirin Labs all trace back to a highly controversial Israeli founder named Moshe Hogeg, who was detained for fraud in 2021 and later accused by law enforcement of a $290M fraudulent crypto scheme in 2023 as well as facing multiple lawsuits from former business partners and employees.
Gems[.]vip is a sketchy launchpad that has hosted multiple of these projects (RAIN, DOP, etc.) and appears to be launching a presale for Kai Platform soon.
Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) reportedly raised $162M in a 2024 token sale. Kai was recently announced to have acquired it, but it's unclear where those funds went with numerous retail investor complaints on social media.
In recent months I have expressed concern about the growing trend of projects aggressively manipulating the price without any repercussions. I do not advise trading them under any circumstances. | 354 |
| 20 | there is a billion dollar opportunity in creating a token standard for prediction market positions that plugs into DeFi liquidity pools and enables lending/borrowing against PM shares
the core problem: PM positions go to zero at resolution so no lender touches them. a standard that wraps positions with risk metadata (probability, time to resolution, volatility) lets lending protocols price binary risk dynamically instead of avoiding it
connect this to the wave of prop firms emerging to fund PM traders
a lot of them will need infrastructure to extend capital against trader portfolios and manage binary resolution risk at scale
that infrastructure doesn't exist yet and the demand side is already forming. the supply side is wide open.
putting this out there for whoever wants to build it
https://x.com/thenarrator/status/2062590390469800125 | 441 |
