️Macro Alpha Analytics🫆

D&O Revised TP RM 2.07 ▶️ RM 1.31

Genting posts first quarterly loss in two years, declares lower dividend https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/746169

云顶双雄末季转亏照派息 云顶亏1.69亿 云顶大马亏4.58亿 - 财经 - 即时财经 https://www.sinchew.com.my/news/20250227/finance/6336450

#NATGATE

Hong Kong stocks hit 3-year high, boosted by surge in Chinese tech giants - CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/hong-kong-stock-index-top-24000-points-chinese-tech-4963436

Cnergenz - FY25 PAT Could Return to FY23 level Lye YC (CEO), Lye TL (CCO), Goh MX (CFO); Feb25 ✨Our view:Earnings was better vs expected in 4Q24, and mmgt is hopeful that FY25 earnings could revert to FY23 level of c.RM15m PAT. This translates to 14x FY25 PE. Key catalysts:securing more higher margin SFS orders. If co achieves FY22 PAT, PE will be moderated to c.9x PE._ 🔹4Q24 briefing takeaways: 👉 4Q24’s earnings boostwas driven by higher: a) recognition of unbilled orders (was RM38m in 3Q24); b) rev from higher margin prov. of integrated lines; & c) higher SFS contri. While current unbilled orders are low at RM16m (as of Dec24), co. has secured several new jobs ytd, although it remains below 3Q24 levels. 👉 FY25 outlook. Trade diversion remains healthy, though certain sectors ie Automotive, continues to face uncertainty. Medical & HPC sector are seeing a stronger capex trend, particularly Medical which now acc. for c.30% of co’s rev/orders. Tenderbook remains active at c.RM100m, where co. is hopeful bulk of it to materialise in FY25. 👉 SFS – key growth. Smart factory solution (SFS) contr. c.20% of PAT in 4Q, partly due to turnaround in the 51%-owned subsidiary Xlent (which had posted RM0.2m losses in 3Q24). Key project delivered/ tendered for SFS are mainly for EMS industry. Cnergenz is leveraging Xlent subdi to penetrate medical segment, and expect rev potential of RM20-30m in 1-2 years (from <RM5m rev base). 📝 FY24 Rev: ◾️ Bdown of smt standalone equipment/ integrated lines/ others : 39/ 46 / 15 (%). ◾️ Bdown by country: MY/ VN/ TH/ Others: 62/24/12/2 (%).

身家暴增1250亿 雷军登顶中国新首富 https://www.enanyang.my/node/653042

- PT KAN phase 1 will be completed by early 2027. - PT Bintan expansion – first 1 m expansion 2H25 and second 1m on 2H26. Funded both internally and IPO fund. - Bauxite in Indo – price stabilize coz they cannot export. Global bauxite price also coming down, not a concern. - Carbon anode coming up slightly – due to tariff from US side which cause raw mat price going up. - latest hedging price and position: 2025 50% USD2600-2650, 2026 35 % USD2650,2027 at USD2700and above at about at 25%. - Indo government welcome foreign investment since they ban bauxite export – has 4 major projects there include PMETAL. - Bauxite reserve is enough for smelter – PT KAN partner is doing Bauxite mining who also used to supply to PT Bintan. - Certain area in EU has good margin such as Turnkey. US a bit too far and lot of uncertainty on tariff, wont focus this region now. - funding of RM450m had been secured for PT KAN. Thanks

♨️ Fresh From Oven ♨️ PMETAL 4QFY24 briefing keytakes (Zoom) Date: 27 Feb 2025 Management: Tan Sri Koon, iBES Advisory Key takeaways - record PATAMI of RM1.76b driven by smelting and refinery segment along with contributions from associates. - lower production volume in 4Q24 impacted by fire incident in Sep24, with the affected P3 smelter of now being fully restored. - Higher contri. From PT Bintan due to high alumina prices. - enhancing operational margin and competitiveness by optimising leverage on alumna requirement Upstream - PT bintan expansion for next 2 years. 2 mil add - PT KAN also will come online. - alumina prices normalize now. PT bintain still has favourable production cost. Midstream - VAP volume 47% in 4Q24. - blended ASO upcharge remain steady. Removal of China VAT rebate is exacerbating supply constraints Downstream - rev up 12% qoq and 17% yoy due to high alu prices. - however competitive markey lead to lower operating margin. - solar extrusion UR 40-50% currently. Plan to ramp up 100% in this year. US tariff not yet caused any significant changes in current purchasing behaviour. Financial - rev lower qoq due to lower sales volume due to fire incident. - Other operating expenses increased due to higher forex losses - higher associate income driven by PT bintan and land sales from PMBTECH - Declared 4th interim dividend of 1.75sen. Full year 33% payout. Prices - Aluminium: up 8% qoq. China elimate the 13% VAT rebate stabilised the alu prices. - Premium: US premium increased due to renewed tariff. But MJP premium higher qoq due to stronger demand. Freight rates declining as well. - Alumina: prices up 37% qoq in 4Q24 TO USD691/mt, representing abt 27% of aluminium prices. This is due to delay and suspension in bauxite from key supplier but this condition has been eased. PMETAL not hedge any alumina prices in 2025. - more expansion from India, Indo and China will come online which will ease alumina prices. - carbon anode: stay within RMB4000-5000 in 4Q24. Alu depply and demand - Due to taiff uncertainty, global production may slow in 2025. - Cancellatio of China VAT rebate: immediate supply gap remains limited as VAT rebate losses are being offset by higher conversion fee or regional premium. - LME warehouse inventory only 24Ok now. - broadbased 25% tariff on alu imports – direct impact to PMETAL is limited – limited exposure to US market – no change on consumer behaviour as of now - China slowing economy is still pending further economic stimulus measures. Keytakes - macro – tariff details remain unknown - alu premiums – emerging as one of the key factor to change due to deglobalization policies and ongoing reshaping of global trade flows. - China impact – demand growth is expected to moderate in 2025 but corresponding decline in production growth will sustain global supply contraints. - Expect a balanced market ahead Q&A - Alumina price will be higher than 15-16% of aluminium prices – Most China sourcing from and Guinea. Recently export tax from Guinea gone upo which will lift China producer’s cost. This will also lift int bauxite cost. Alumina will be between 400-500USD/mt. Global production cost about 400USD/MT so management foresee wont go down below this level. - PT KAN – PMETAL need 2m alumina , just to meet what PMETAL required. Fully leverage on their cost and maintain the volatility of alumina supply. - Major operation still aluminium operation even all the alumina capacity comes online. - 35% alumina leverage only now and 50% after PT Bintan expand capacity. 90% levarge alumina after PT KAN come online. This year alumina all indexed as PMETAL foresee alumina price will be softened. - capex RM600m ytd on smelting side only – further capex on PT KAN – 1/3 40% of the toal investment recognised this year for PT KAN side.

#XPENG #NIO #EV

Nvidia sales grow 78% on AI demand, company gives strong guidance https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q4-2025.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

$NVDA NVIDIA Q4 FY25 (January quarter). • Revenue +12% Q/Q to $39.3B ($1.2B beat). • Gross margin 73% (-2pp Q/Q). • Operating margin 61% (-1pp Q/Q). • Non-GAAP EPS $0.89 ($0.04 beat). Q1 FY26 guidance: • Revenue $43.0B ($1.0B beat).

Earnings Estimates ▶️

#NVIDIA