Election Data Analyzer

For those of you finding this channel for the first time because of the Record please always read the pinned FAQ. Thanks.

With all the discussion of when or how to canvass as part of a full forensic audit, my latest interview is timely. Learn about a tool that will make the canvassing operation much easier. https://rumble.com/vm3iif-before-you-canvass-use-the-election-data-analyzer.html

Time Series Study for 12 Counties Part 7: This is a continuation of yesterday's post. I was interested to see if anyone would suggest a line of inquiry similar to what I had in mind but had not shared yet. Nobody did. I went back and looked at the same time period in 2019, 1/1/19-11/4/19, which is the top graph and then reposted below it 1/1/20-11/4/20 graph from yesterday. To my eye, I simply see a random pattern in 2019 (human behavior?) and a non random controlled patter in 2020. There is NO DOUBT about that. The real question is WHY? I don't have an answer. See the formula I trended in the post from yesterday. This is a 6th order polynomial fit to the data with the y axis set to the same range for both. One caution about going back in time on reg roles, the data becomes more "sparse" (due to people dropping from the roles) so you need to be careful about drawing conclusions about sparse data sets. What do you think? Big Nothing Burger? 🤨Edit: typo in the top graph, should be should be 1/1/19

Time Series Study for 12 Counties Part 6: Up above in my posts, I addressed a formula I came up with and put into the EDA for the time period between 1/1/20-11/4/20. Let U=sum of unaffiliated registrations, Let D=sum of DEM reg, Let R=sum of REP reg. The formula graphed here is U/(D+R) daily and then curve fit. Each line represents a county. I have also shared in prior posts that all the ratios for 12 counties fell between 0.95 to 1.1 on average for the entire time period. Here is the proof. What this analysis lacks is a statistical perspective which I don't have the skills for. What are the chances that human beings would behave like this? If this is not human behavior, what does it mean? Interesting to think about. 🤨Edit:this a sixth order polynomial trend against the data.

Time Series Study for 12 Counties Part 5: This is a continuation of yesterday's post which I was deliberately a bit obscure in not showing all of the data. I want people to think about what the data means and get creative. Here is the same data on a time series. What this is showing is that voters are being added to the role and assigned a status "Undeliverable Ballot" and "Returned Mail" 1) after the date that voting by mail was permitted OR 2) after the election was over. I have asked for some second opinions on this and the best explanation I have is "sloppy book keeping, you should hound the Clerks for an answer". These are not VOTES, these are REGISTRANTS. Would be interested to confirm if other people are seeing this type of confusion in their state.

Time Series Study for 12 Counties Part 4: After 10/26/20, nobody who registered should be allowed to vote by mail. These are the registration total through June 1st. How does somebody get assigned a status "Returned Mail" or Undeliverable Ballot" if their only LEGAL option was to vote in person? What do you think?

Most Secure Election Ever - MASSACHUSETTS edition --- Seth and team, Allow me to introduce myself my name is Caroline Colarusso and I was a candidate for Congress in 2020 for the fifth district of Massachusetts. I ran against the Asst. Speaker of the house Katherine  Clark.  I have been communicating the serious concerns we have uncovered for the 11/3 election in Massachusetts to major Boston media outlets & Sirius radio. (See links below)  Through FIOA and public requests request and through communications from whistle blowers we have been told there are in excess of 500,000 ballot applications returned to sender siting in the Archives Building in Boston. We have recently gained access to examine these ballot applications via a public records request.  A total of 3.6 million ballot applications were mailed to so called voters in Massachusetts. Between 12 and 20 percent were sent to bad addresses.

I am "happy" to see that this message from Capt Seth which supports the type of analysis we are doing on this channel. It is difficult for me to believe what I am finding some days and have to double check my own work and ask for second opinions. I am sorry to say, I am in the middle of extending the analysis I posted yesterday to a bigger data set and it is showing even more "slop"...results will be posted soon.

Time Series Part 4: Here is an easy analysis. Look at the registration date on all the voters in your state, using EDA Filters tab, filter down on the ones who registered AFTER the deadline to be able to vote by mail and before 11/4/20. Then look at any meta data on those records that would indicate a ballot was mailed anyway. In this state, I can see which voters received a ballot but were later noted as "Undeliverable" or "Returned Mail". Why was a ballot mailed? In person voting is REQUIRED after the deadline. Best case...this is sloppy accounting. I have no visibility into if the ballot was voted as a mail in after the deadline, at least not with this source. This is very small of ballots across the 12 most populous counties (granted), but, when elections are so tightly contested, how can we rely on a system like this? We should all be able to agree this is problematic regardless of your party. Post in the comments if this is a problem you are seeing in your state.

Hey folks, I just became aware of a document that may exist in your state. It is a calendar listing all of the deadlines for various election related activities for a given year, including registration dates. These dates two interest me the most. Sometimes when you are doing this work you see a rabbit hole that you need to decide if you want to go down or leave for another day. This one demands some immediate attention. You might be able to guess where I am going with this. Once I have more data, I will let you know. Please, go to your SoS and ask if they have such a calendar.

Hey folks, I just became aware of a document that may exist in your state. It is a calendar listing all of the deadlines for various election related activities for a given year, including registration dates. These dates two interest me the most. Sometimes when you are doing this work you see a rabbit hole that you need to decide if you want to go down or leave for another day. This one demands some immediate attention. You might be able to guess where I am going with this. Once I have more data, I will let you know. Please, go to your SoS and ask if they have such a calendar.

Happy to announce, EDA has now been officially included in the USEIP Data Analytics Guide. It is a small part of the program, but, this is really cool. I started this as something for myself 4 months ago, then shared it with some friends who gave me some encouragement. Then I decided to start this channel so I could connect with some real users and field test it. Would this be useful to the general public? I had no idea, it was a hypothesis at the time. Then the organic spread "just happened" to the point where we are today of being used in 25 states and now part of USEIP.org. Folks, you don't need a "plan" to get involved, just get involved and figure it out day by day. Thanks for the support. Now back to the data. https://useip.org/2021/08/28/useip-data-analytics-guide-now-available/

Time Series 12 County 240 Address Study Part 3: This is really interesting. 54 Military people did not vote even though they were registered between 11/1/20 to 11/5/20. Really, that is kind of weird? Was there an unexpected deployment that occurred or an emergency training drill? Maybe, but this is odd to me but I am not in the military so I don't want to assume to much. For the homeless, there we have that pesky "Returned Mail" designator again for 20 people (36%). I guess they moved on after registering at the homeless facility? I don't know. The Residence is interesting, 25% "Returned Mail". Apparently, these folks either a) don't know how to copy there own address from a valid form of ID into a reg form or b) moved or c) I have no idea.....All of this requires further research and going back to the source data and double/triple checking against it. Is this causing canvassers to think critically about how to be creative in using EDA? That is the main point here. I am not a canvasser.

Time Series 12 County 240 Address Study Part 2: The table on the left is a kind of nothing burger to me, but good to know. The table on the right is interesting. Even though these people took the time to register to vote immediately before or on the day of the election, 75 of them are now designated as Inactive due to "Returned Mail" (71) or other reasons you can see. How does that happen? Let's say "Sally Jones" registers on 01NOV20 for example, a ballot gets mailed out and then returned? Does that make sense? What is the cut off date for mailing a ballot? I really don't know. Would have to dig further. Maybe you can explain?

Time Series 12 County 240 Address Study Part 1: Now we are going to get into the "fun" time series data extracted from EDA. I will post a series of "Parts" with a "Final Part" to indicate I am done with this type of data, since I do not know how many posts I will make. How did I do this? After manually assigning the Type designator against the address using a map, I then put that subset of data into EDA and used the "Pivot Filters" tab. I then ran a "between" search on 11/1/20-11/5/20, then selected the "Export Query" button and saved it, created my own custom pivot table. Hope that helps with the tutorial on the EDA. Apparently, the military like to register near or on election day as do the college crowd. The group of yellow is effectively all college at 117. The top three are Military, College and Homeless Facilities. Just the data folks. If this was your state, would it make sense? If you were a canvassing lead (I am not), would this be a red flag or a big "nothing burger".

I want to revisit a prior post. This is the case of "0 Fort Patriot" address in the reg role. There are 4823 voters that are assigned to 2 unique military address that have this format. I spoke to someone today you said (paraphrasing), "For security purposes, placeholder address are put on the public roles for military voters. The county knows what the real address is but redacts it for the public list." OK, well this make sense in terms of explaining the common address that looks bogus. But how do we explain the table? Follow my speculation...IF I was a bad actor and IF I wanted to inflate the roles and IF I knew that the public roles were formatted this way, wouldn't this be an opportunity to hide phantom voters? Does it make sense that only 55% of the military voted when this state had 80%+ turnout? I don't understand this discrepancy and will have to dig further. At least this is plausible explanation for the address. Hope that helps the canvassers who encounter this same address syntax.

To recap, I am still looking at my 12 County Study for the top 20 Unique Address based on number of registrations per Address (16,319 Voters). Here, I decided to use EDA Advanced Filter dashboard and focus on Last Name character count of 2. All 13 voters live in only 2 of 12 Counties and have 6 unique address amongst the entire group. 8 of 13 registered in 2020 and the rest between 2016-2019. I'll leave the rest for you to look at. This is just the data folks. Trying to show how Advanced Filtering can be used in EDA to dig deeper on a subset of voters.****Edit: How could I forget, there are 11 unique 2 letter last names amongst the 13 instances! We are not dealing with a single big family here.*

(Posted by Sarah Centers, who obviously gets it.) Stop and think critically. There’s over 3,000 counties. Dr. Frank is not against targeted full forensic audits that help expose everything. He is speaking about strategy. You seriously think sitting around and waiting for audits of all 3,000 counties is the “best” strategy? That’s about as moronic as Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal. Dr Frank is speaking alongside Seth next week, who just posted a “Top 100 counties for forensic audits.” You folks trying to make this about a war between personalities are totally missing the point. Waiting around and believing that full forensic audits are the only path forward is a strategic mistake. You can make a difference…today…in your precinct. Get off your butts and get to work while the politicians drag their feet on these audits. Then maybe in a few weeks you can get that targeted audit in a key county in your state. Go to the BOE with your stack of phantom ballots for a few precincts. Tell them you refuse to vote this way anymore—the mail in/absentee vote controls clearly didn’t work and you have excellent mathematic data from Frank, Keshel, Draza, Solomon to back it up. The machines must go and it’s time to vote Amish. As more and more people do that, demanding an audit of just one county, the likelihood of getting that audit goes up. But maybe you won’t need it. Maybe the math and the phantom voters will be enough in some precincts, some counties, some whole states.

This exactly the type of grassroots activity EDA is built to support.