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(more) Severe gusts + heavy rain + icy cold air (with snow and frost) + a significantly higher swell (but at a lower period = not absolutely destructive) and therefore also a more dangerous sea state.
Coverage on LandWater?
This will naturally expand significantly as storm elements become settled and our systems show their cloud feathers.
▼ The upper air is one of the spaces that is very well understood here: it's truly interesting, but immensely powerful (as we will find out yet again).
May this period be merciful. It will NOT be merciful everywhere = hence the early focus for several days.
🙂
MAINTAIN FOCUS: Be informed. Remain vigilant. Stay safe.
🗓 26 Mei/May 2024 • 🐕 STORMBARON™ • FOKUS ⚠️ FOCUS
🗣 [English follows the Afrikaans]
⦿
By voorbaat, besonderse fokus is op Weerdienswaarskuwings nodig wanneer dit later in die week verskyn in die uitgebreide tyd vanaf 30 Mei moontlik selfs tot 6-7+ Junie.
Dis 'n lang tyd en ons is nog "ver" daarvan weg, maar binne besonderse kragtige weerbalanse.
LandWater is nie 'n weerdiens nie, maar 'n volhoubaarheidsinisiatief.
Waarmee werk ons?
Spesifieke detail sal tydens die ontwikkelings toegelig word, maar ons werk met:
1. 'n Kragtiger wesgerigte kouefront wat Donderdag in die Kaap land met uitgebreide bolugondersteuning.
= instootreën vanuit die suide soos die Suid-Atlantiesehoog ooswaarts na die Agulhashoog skuif
= instootreën ook vanuit die suidooste (kragtig) na ooste met die Agulhashoog is 'n kragtgie drywer van instootreën
2. 'n Besonders kragtige en goed-geplaasde bolug met 'n Bo-trog (laagdrukgolf) wat Saterdag inswaai en ten minste (let op) EEN 'n Bo-sikloon oor Suid-Afrika vanaf volgende ~Sondag sal lewer.
= uitgebreide hoë-volumereën wat natuurlikerwys swaarder suid (insluitend suidwes na suidoos) sal neig, maar stroke sal ook noord reik
3. 'n Wesenlike moontlikheid vir 'n dubbele Bo-sikloon direk na die eerste een (dit ontwikkel eintlik tot 'n mate uit dit) vanuit dieselfde trog en hierdie stelsel mag meer noord swaai, wat dan ook 'n kragtige Agulhashoog mag afdwing.
= hierdie mag nog pootjie, maar hierdie moontlikheid staan nou al vir so 3 dae (en wys nou sterker) en dit maak sin binne die bestaande balans
🚩 #1 en #2 SAL realiseer, maar die presiese dekking en water-omvang van #2 sal eers deur die week vasmaak | #3 MAG realiseer.
Stormelemente in spel?
Hewige(r) rukwind + swaarreën + ysige(r) koue (met sneeu en ryp) + 'n aansienliker hoër deining (maar teen 'n laer periode = nie absoluut verwoestend nie) én daarom ook 'n gevaarliker see.
Dekking op LandWater?
Dit sal natuurlik aansienlik uitbrei soos stormelemente beter vasmaak en ons stelsels hul wolkvere wys.
▼ Die bolug is een van die omgewings wat hier baie goed verstaan word: dis werklik interessant maar erg kragtig (soos ons weer gaan uitvind).
Mag hierdie tydperk genadig wees. Dit sal NIE orals genadig wees nie = daarom die vroeë fokus al vir etlike dae.
🙂
BEHOU FOKUS: Wees ingelig. Wees paraat. Bly veilig.
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● EN ●
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In advance, special focus is needed on Weather Service warnings when they appear later in the week for the extended period from 30 May possibly even into 6-7+ June.
This is a lengthy period and although we're still some way off we're also in exceptionally powerful weather balances.
LandWater is not a weather service, but a sustainability initiative.
What are we dealing with?
Specific detail will be covered during the developments, but we look at:
1. A more powerful westerly focussed cold front landing in the Cape on Thursday with extensive upper air support.
= push-in rain from the south as the South Atlantic High travels eastwards towards the Agulhas High
= push-in rain also from the southeast (powerful) to the east with the Agulhas High as a powerful driver of push-in rain
2. A particularly powerful and well-placed upper air with an Upper Trough (low-pressure wave) swinging in on Saturday to deliver at least (note) ONE Upper Cyclone over South Africa from next ~Sunday.
= extensive high-volume rain that will naturally trend more heavily south (including southwest and southeast), but bands will also reach north
3. A significant possibility for a double Upper Cyclone directly following the first one (it actually develop partially from it) from the same trough and this system may swing more north, which may then force another powerful Agulhas High.
= this may still trip, but it's been a possibility for about 3 days now (and it's now showing) and it makes sense within the current balance
🚩 #1 and #2 WILL happen, but the exact coverage and extent of water of #2 will only settle during the week | #3 MAY happen.
Storm elements in play?