QCP Broadcast

QCP Market Colour, 20 July 2026 Markets are firmly risk-off, with geopolitics adding another layer of pressure. Oil is supported, equities are under strain, and BTC is holding a narrow $63,000 to $65,000 range. US equities ended the week lower, led by semiconductors as investors grew concerned that hyperscalers could moderate AI infrastructure spending. Capital rotated toward defensives and energy, with Brent above $85 and on course for a weekly gain of more than 10% after the US reimposed a naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz. Crypto is caught in the same two-sided setup. BTC is consolidating near $64,100 after dipping below $63,000, while flows have turned supportive, with US spot ETFs recording four straight days of inflows after a record $8 billion outflow streak. Volatility stays offered, leaving front-end options inexpensive against the oil tail risk into month-end. With Brent bid and the Fed leaning hawkish into the 28 to 29 July FOMC, which side of the range breaks first? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Digital Assets Market Outlook | Q3 2026 Four things that actually matter this quarter: 1. The macro backdrop and a Fed that's harder to read 2. AI versus crypto capital rotation 3. Why the corporate treasury bid now comes with conditions attached, and 4. How we're thinking about positioning across BTC, ETH, SOL and options. Our deepest read of the quarter: the rates backdrop, why $BTC still trades as a high-beta liquidity asset, our full positioning framework, and the base, bull, and bear scenarios ahead. Get the full outlook here.

QCP Market Colour, 13 July 2026 Crypto enters the week with little conviction as markets brace for a packed calendar of macro and corporate catalysts. Tuesday's US CPI release and Fed Chair Warsh's two-day testimony before Congress are likely to shape expectations for the Fed's policy path, with investors looking for greater clarity on the outlook for rates. The macro calendar is only half the story. Q2 earnings season begins this week with the major US banks, followed by several blue-chip names across technology and financials. With equity valuations already elevated, particularly across AI infrastructure, companies may need to deliver more than earnings beats to keep the rally intact. For crypto, the broader backdrop remains constructive, supported by institutional adoption and steady ETF demand. However, without a clearer macro catalyst, BTC may remain rangebound as markets wait for greater conviction. Is this week's CPI and earnings season enough to reignite risk appetite, or will markets continue to wait for a clearer signal from the Fed? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 10 July 2026 BTC has rebounded towards 64k after a sharp reversal in Japanese government bond yields eased concerns over a disorderly unwind of yen-funded carry trades. While the move provided relief for global liquidity, Japan's bond market remains a key risk with the BOJ meeting later this month. Crypto has also continued to absorb renewed geopolitical tensions. Despite the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, higher oil prices and a firmer dollar, BTC quickly recovered after a wave of leveraged liquidations pushed prices briefly towards 61.5k. The broader macro backdrop remains supportive but increasingly conditional. AI-driven growth, institutional demand and ETF inflows continue to underpin crypto, though next week's US CPI and the path of real yields remain key catalysts. BTC is showing resilience, but confirmation still requires a sustained move back above 64k. Is this the start of a stronger second-half recovery, or simply another pause before macro volatility returns? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Trends – 9 July 2026 Even a soft jobs print wasn't enough to put Fed cuts back on the table, and that matters because buffers are thinning at the same time across oil, crypto and credit. The relief markets were counting on isn't coming. June payrolls rose just +57k, roughly half the expected +110k, yet it wasn't enough to shift the Fed. Wage growth is still +3.5% and M2 hit a record $23.05tn, keeping inflation the binding constraint ahead of 14 Jul CPI. With no monetary cushion coming, the physical buffers matter more. The SPR has drawn down to its lowest since 1983, Strategy sold BTC for the first time to fund dividends, and private-credit redemption requests breached the 5% gates across eight semi-liquid funds. Different corners, same pattern: the buffers are wearing thin. With no monetary cushion coming and buffers thinning across oil, crypto and credit, where does the first crack show? Get this week's Macro Trends here.

QCP Market Colour – 6 July 2026 BTC has kicked off July with a solid recovery, consistent with seasonality. After a weaker June, July has averaged a 7.5% gain, one of Bitcoin's strongest months. The move follows Thursday's soft jobs report, where June payrolls rose just 57k, roughly half of consensus. That leaves Fed Chair Warsh facing a macro hat-trick: a softening labour market, sticky inflation, and pressure from Washington to ease. Crypto has stayed resilient through it. Implied vol has drifted lower and put skew has moderated, though some still draw parallels to 2022 and stay cautious into year-end. A decisive reclaim of 64k this week would boost sentiment and ease some of the uncertainty around Strategy. The bulls have bought some extra time, but the final whistle is still some distance away. A genuine second-half comeback, or an echo of 2022's July bounce? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour – 3 July 2026 BTC pierced its key 58k support on Wednesday, printing a low near 57.7k before a softer-than-expected NFP sparked a relief bounce back above 60k. ETH outperformed, reclaiming the 1,700 handle, nearly 10% off its midweek lows. Options markets were quick to fade the stress. Front-end vols unwound most of last week's spike, the term structure re-steepened into contango, and topside calls led July flows. Carry has flipped back in favour of vol sellers. But the jobs report that sparked the bounce hardly makes the dovish case. Wages accelerated, unemployment fell and spending is still hot, giving the Fed room to stay hawkish. Treasuries and equities agree; crypto is the greener shoot, with BTC spot ETFs pulling in $224mn after a six-session outflow streak. Has the panic truly cleared, or is spot just bouncing while rates and equities refuse to confirm? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Trends – 1 July 2026 The peace deal is signed and the Fed has held. Markets are now pricing the aftermath. The US-Iran deal removed the headline, but not the cost of moving oil through Hormuz. War-risk insurance still runs about 8x pre-war levels even with Brent at $73-75, and Washington is leaning on a thinning strategic reserve to hold prices down. On rates, the message is patience. PCE is still above target and core momentum remains firm, so the case for cuts keeps slipping ahead of Thursday's jobs print. Elsewhere, the AI memory shock is reaching the shelf, with Micron beating and Apple raising prices across its memory-heavy line while leaving the iPhone unchanged. Have the headline risks truly cleared, or are they simply being repriced downstream in insurance, inflation and pricing? Get this week's Macro Trends here.

QCP Market Colour – 29 June 2026 It has been 12 days since the U.S.-Iran MOU was signed, yet tensions continue to mount after a weekend of military exchanges and fresh accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides. Oil has remained largely stable in the low $70s, suggesting cautious optimism, but the muted reaction leaves upside risk if supply recovery proves slower than expected. In crypto, implied vols continue to trend higher as traders pay up for downside protection, particularly in the 55k–58k BTC puts for July expiry. BTC and ETH are still trading just above key support levels, while Strategy concerns, BTC spot ETF outflows and pressure on equities continue to weigh on sentiment. With Warsh speaking at the ECB forum, ISM and payrolls ahead, and U.S.-Iran tensions still fluid, will thinner liquidity keep volatility elevated this short week? Read the full colour here.

Starting this week, we're adding a new layer to your Market Colour: Macro Trends. A weekly read on the bigger forces quietly (or not so quietly) moving markets underneath the surface noise. QCP Macro Trends – 24 June 2026 Macro has shifted from headline relief to execution risk. The US-Iran MOU is signed and Brent is back below $80, but Hormuz remains contested. Crossings are still at just 14, far below normal, while a 60-day technical-talks clock is now running. The Fed also reinforced higher-for-longer. Policy stayed at 3.50–3.75%, but the median 2026 dot rose to 3.8% and Warsh removed forward guidance, leaving markets to price reaction-function uncertainty ahead of PCE. Elsewhere, Strategy keeps stacking BTC even as its funding math tightens with spot below cost basis and STRC below par. Has macro risk truly cooled, or are markets simply moving from headline relief into the harder execution test? Read the full Macro Trends here.

QCP Market Colour – 23 June 2026 BTC reclaimed 65k after Strategy added 520 BTC and increased cash reserves by 300m to 1.4bn, extending dividend coverage to nearly 10 months. While likely funded through its ATM equity issuance programme, investors appear to be taking comfort from the liquidity rebuild, with STRC back above 90. The broader risk picture remains mixed. Nasdaq fell around 1% as large-cap tech came under pressure, while USD/JPY moved sharply lower on renewed BoJ intervention speculation. Small caps, however, outperformed, with the Russell 2000 reaching a fresh all-time high above 3,000. For crypto, the setup is still range-bound. US-Iran uncertainty, concerns around Strategy’s STRC offering, and questions over Warsh’s policy approach continue to weigh on sentiment. This week’s PCE inflation report and quarter-end rebalancing could drive cross-asset volatility, but crypto options markets remain unconvinced that any single catalyst is enough to force a breakout. Is BTC consolidating before quarter-end catalysts arrive, or will traders keep fading volatility until macro and crypto-specific signals align? Read the full colour here.

QCP Market Colour – 17 June 2026 Markets have been given a cleaner geopolitical setup to start the week. An MOU between the US and Iran has signalled a potential end to the conflict, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz giving risk assets room to breathe. S&P futures opened more than 100 points above Friday’s close and pushed past all-time highs, while crude moved lower and is now trading below 75. The macro backdrop is still doing some heavy lifting. Warsh takes the stage at his first Fed meeting as Chair today, facing elevated inflation, a divided Board, and a market already pricing in 0.5 hikes in 2026. The Dot Plot will be the key test of whether policy is set to stay restrictive in the near term. Equities, meanwhile, have found another source of momentum. SpaceX’s blockbuster launch has added fuel to an already strong tape, with AI and space now both helping to keep risk appetite alive. Low float and strong institutional demand may keep the stock supported, though the rally is starting to look rather gravity-resistant. For crypto, the picture is less clean. BTC remains stuck below 66k as concerns around Strategy’s funding needs continue to weigh on sentiment. Macro optimism may eventually catch up, but for now, the Strategy overhang is keeping Bitcoin from joining the broader risk rally. Is Bitcoin simply lagging the macro move, or does this overhang need to clear before the next leg higher? Read the full colour here.

QCP Market Colour – 10 June 2026 Markets are being handed several reasons not to feel brave today. Geopolitical risk remains elevated as US-Iran tensions intensify and uncertainty around Hormuz keeps energy disruption risk alive. At the same time, last week’s stronger NFP print has brought inflation concerns back into the room, putting today’s CPI release firmly in focus. The equity backdrop is not helping either. Oracle reports today, and after Broadcom’s reaction last week, the market has made it clear that “good enough” may no longer be enough for AI-linked names. For crypto, the setup remains tied to the broader risk mood. With macro, geopolitics, and AI equities all pulling on sentiment, the next move may depend less on crypto-native flows and more on how traditional markets digest the day’s catalysts. Is today’s weakness just another wobble, or are markets starting to price a broader reset? Read the full colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 8 June 2026 Markets opened the week on edge. South Korea's KOSPI triggered circuit breakers after plunging 8.4%, as the AI trade came under pressure and foreign selling hit the country's semiconductor heavyweights. When chipmakers wobble in Korea, global risk tends to pay attention. For crypto, the mood remains defensive. BTC has found support above $60k after last week's sharp pullback, but options markets are still pricing caution, with front-end vol elevated and put skew firmly in demand. Macro is not helping either. Strong US jobs data, USD/JPY back above 160, Middle East tensions and this week's CPI release are all keeping investors on alert. Strategy remains another key swing factor, with uncertainty around STRC and dividend coverage still weighing on sentiment. So is BTC building a base above $60k, or is the market simply pausing before the next macro test? Key Events Wed, 10 Jun: US CPI Thu, 11 Jun: US PPI Fri, 12 Jun: SpaceX IPO, expected Read the full colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 3 June 2026 BTC has had a difficult start to June, falling around 11.6% on the week as crypto-specific deleveraging met a less forgiving macro tape. The headline that caught attention was Strategy’s rare BTC sale. The size was small. The signal was not. When the market’s most visible structural buyer sells even a little, investors tend to notice. Oil risk, firmer rate expectations and defensive options positioning have all added to the pressure. Front-end vol is bid, skew remains negative and the market looks more interested in protection than upside beta. This does not look like panic. It looks like a market making sure the exits are clearly marked. So is BTC simply repricing downside risk, or is this the first sign that macro is starting to bite harder? Read the full colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 18 May 2026 From Long Gamma to Macro Drama BTC breaks range as long-gamma support fades and macro pressures build BTC broke below $78k after spending most of the month pinned around $80k. Dealer long gamma, especially in IBIT options, had helped suppress volatility, but Friday’s expiry saw over $4B of IBIT options roll off, weakening that support. The macro backdrop is turning less friendly. Equities are pulling back, bond yields are at fresh cycle peaks (US 10Y: 4.62%, 30Y: 5.14%), and USD/JPY at 158 to 159 is nearing the key 160 level, where intervention risk and yen-carry unwind fears could rise. Trade talks remain the main hope for sentiment, but last week’s Trump-Xi summit offered few concrete details. With oil prices rising and CPI running hot, markets now price a 50% to 60% chance that the Fed’s benchmark rate will be 25bps higher by January. Until clearer tariff or US-Iran headlines emerge, crypto likely stays in a grinding range. Front-end vol spiked on the move lower but is already being faded, and call overwriters may soon return to pin spot near current levels. Key Events Wed, 20 May: FOMC Minutes | NVDA Earnings Thu, 21 May: Flash PMIs Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-21/

QCP Market Colour, 13 May 2026 BTC Holds the Line as Macro Catalysts Stack Up Bitcoin remains heavy but orderly, consolidating around $82K and holding above $80K despite ETF outflows and a slightly hotter CPI print. Downside momentum appears to be fading, but $84K remains the key topside level to clear. April CPI was slightly hot, with core CPI at 2.8% YoY versus 2.7% expected, briefly pushing 10Y yields toward 4.46%. Shelter drove much of the upside, while ex-shelter core goods remained subdued, suggesting tariff pass-through has yet to broaden into a full goods inflation shock. The stickier issue remains supercore, with core services ex-housing accelerating for a third straight month and keeping the hurdle for Fed cuts higher. China PPI turning positive also points to a fading global goods disinflation tailwind. BTC now looks to PPI, Trump-Xi talks and progress on the CLARITY Act for direction. Without a fresh catalyst, spot likely remains range-bound below $84K, with vols compressed. Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-20/

QCP Market Colour, 11 May 2026 Rush Hour: Crypto at the Crossroads Markets enter a high-stakes week with Trump and Xi set to meet in Beijing, while April CPI, PPI and retail sales will test whether inflation is stabilising or regaining momentum. For crypto, the key question is whether softer inflation can pull real yields lower and support risk assets. BTC has remained resilient above 80k despite recent ETF outflows and noise around Saylor’s alleged “selling Bitcoin,” which may be seen as constructive. The Senate Banking Committee’s review of the CLARITY Act also keeps regulatory momentum in focus. Still, with crypto volatility near YTD lows and the VIX around 18, we expect range-bound trading near term, with 84k as key resistance until macro and geopolitical clarity improves. Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-19/