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📊AUDUSD drops to a one-month low On Monday, the Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.27% against the U.S. dollar (USD) but failed to hold above the critically important 0.62300 level. 👉 Possible effects for traders AUDUSD has been declining steeply since 21 February. The downward trend is exacerbated by growing worries over potential tariff-induced global recession risks and the decline in commodity prices, particularly those crucial to Australia's export-driven economy. These factors have triggered a shift in market sentiment, as investors perceive the Australian dollar as vulnerable to trade disputes and the diminished demand for raw materials. The steep depreciation reflects a market grappling with the prospect of a global slowdown, where tariffs act as a catalyst for economic contraction, and the reduced value of commodities further erodes Australia's terms of trade. According to Reuters, Australia has sought an exception to some of the proposed tariffs but with little luck, while Trump flagged possible taxes on farm imports in which Australia specialises. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) February meeting minutes took a hawkish turn, suggesting that additional rate cuts were unlikely and the regulator might hold the 4.10% rate for longer if inflation remained resistant. Still, the RBA was also worried about the damage tariffs could do to the global economy, suggesting that the central bank may opt for additional rate cuts in the worst-case scenario. Fundamentally, there is no divergence in monetary policy expectations between the RBA and the Federal Reserve. Investors expect both banks to deliver only one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2025. AUDUSD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions, hitting a one-month low. The disappointing Current Account report released at 12:30 a.m. UTC may have contributed to the decline. The economic calendar is relatively uneventful today. However, any news related to U.S. trade policy might cause increased volatility in the market, affecting AUDUSD. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

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USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart 👉Level explanation USDJPY has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 149.210. Set your stop loss at 149.750 above the previous high ($3.62 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 148.670 ($3.62 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. @octa_analytics

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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart 👉Level explanation EURUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.03930. Set your stop loss at 1.04105 above the previous high ($1.75 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.03755 ($1.75 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. 📝Fundamental factors The eurozone Consumer Price Index report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade. @octa_analytics

#weekly_outlook 🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 3 – 7 March from Vito Henjoto. Stay informed and trade wisely.

📊Gold declines, but the bullish trend persists The gold (XAU) price dropped by 0.61% on Friday after U.S. inflation aligned with market expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't take a more dovish approach to monetary policy. 👉 Possible effects for traders Due to ongoing economic uncertainty exacerbated by trade tariffs and geopolitical instability, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise on Friday, pushing XAUUSD lower. 'I think the main element impacting the gold and silver markets is the profit-taking in week-long liquidation and the strong U.S. Dollar Index', said Jim Wyckoff, a senior market analyst at Kitco Metals. At the same time, Wall Street's main stock indices continued to weaken as investors remained cautious over potential price pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump's policies. Losses in equities had an additional bearish impact on gold prices. Overall, XAUUSD had its first weekly loss since the end of December 2024. However, gold set a second consecutive monthly gain, boosted broadly by concerns over Trump's tariff plans. XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures might force the Fed to reassess the projected monetary policy path and adopt a more dovish stance. If ISM PMI numbers are below the expected 50.6, XAUUSD may rally. Conversely, higher-than-expected results will lower the probability of an additional rate cut by the Fed and push XAUUSD lower. 'Spot gold may test resistance at $2,879 per ounce, a break above which could open the way toward $2,894 to $2,909 range', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊Euro lacks support due to dovish ECB and strengthening U.S. dollar The euro (EUR) lost 0.21% on Friday against the U.S. dollar (USD) as the latter strengthened amid persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty related to Donald Trump's trade tariffs. 👉 Possible effects for traders Investors' optimism on a potential peaсe settlement between Russia and Ukraine has been rising lately, exerting a minor bullish pressure on EURUSD. However, that optimism started to wane after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump had a heated discussion in the White House on Friday. 'It looked like we were moving towards progress on a peace deal or a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and maybe now that gets to come on hold, so you have to price in a little bit more uncertainty', said Jack Mcintyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global in Philadelphia. After falling for several months from a more than one-year high hit last September, the currency has shown signs of stabilising, partly due to hopes that peace could be reached. However, the latest developments have dashed hopes that it will happen soon. At the same time, the fundamental pressure on EURUSD remains mostly bearish as investors still expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to be more dovish than the Federal Reserve (Fed). Fed officials have recently indicated they plan to hold rates steady until signs of a slowing economy and more clarity about the impact of trade tariffs on inflation. In contrast, ECB policymakers indicated during their previous meeting that the eurozone's interest rates were still restrictive, which suggests they remain eager to cut them further. EURUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), due at 10:00 a.m. UTC. In addition, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index will come out at 3:00 p.m. UTC and likely trigger more volatility in all USD pairs. These data releases might enable EURUSD to escape its short-term trading range of 1.03595–1.042300. A break above will open the way towards 1.048000, while a break below will allow bears to target new multi-week lows. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊Canadian dollar awaits new data on U.S. trade tariffs The Canadian dollar (CAD) lost just 0.19% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday as investors assessed domestic data showing stronger-than-expected economic growth and awaited the potential implementation of U.S. trade tariffs. 👉 Possible effects for traders Although USDCAD changed little on Friday, it was up as much as 1.69% for the week as traders priced in the likelihood of higher trade tariffs from the United States. Friday's data showed that Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.6% annually in Q4, surpassing expectations of a 1.8% increase, driven by a jump in consumer spending. However, the relatively strong U.S. inflation data and trade tariff threats pushed USDCAD slightly higher on Friday. Meanwhile, Canadian officials were expected to meet with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and other senior Trump administration officials to forestall the tariffs. Canada seeks to show evidence of progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl opioids into the U.S. ahead of a 4 March deadline for punishing 25% tariffs on their goods imports. 'Markets remain somewhat sceptical that, if it comes to it, 25% tariffs will be in place for long. The economic consequences for Canada from high tariffs are significant, but they are non-negligible for the U.S.', said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. If the Trump administration accepts the evidence and cancels the tariffs, USDCAD will likely drop sharply. USDCAD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures might pause the rally in USDCAD and push the pair towards 1.44170. Conversely, higher-than-expected results may pull USDCAD towards recent highs near 1.44700. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart 👉Level explanation BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 92,505.94. Set your stop loss at 94,531.05 above the previous high ($20.25 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 90,480.83 ($20.25 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. @octa_analytics

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🔗 Trade crypto in the Octa app What's happening? Bitcoin has fallen 7.6% in 24 hours, dropping below $80,000 for the first time since November. Investor sentiment remains bearish as risk-off flows dominate the market. 🔹 Trade tariffs trigger uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% tariff on China. 🔹 Investors flee high-risk assets. Economic instability is pushing traders away from BTC, increasing selling pressure. 🔹 Despite pro-crypto policies, analysts stress that economic stability is key before any recovery can occur. Key levels to watch 📉 If BTC breaks below $75,000, it could extend its losses. 📈 A reversal could push BTC towards $90,000, signalling renewed interest. Learn more about crypto and Forex trading at @octa_analytics

GBPJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart 👉General outlook GBPJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 189.250. Set your stop loss at 190.051 above the previous high ($5.32 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 188.450 ($5.32 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market. @octa_analytics

📊U.S. dollar's strength triggers a sell-off in gold The gold (XAU) price plunged by more than 1.3% on Thursday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) moved sharply higher after a strong U.S. macro data release. 👉 Possible effects for traders The Commerce Department's second estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reiterated that the economy grew at a very healthy 2.3% annualised rate in the last three months of 2024. This confirmation solidified the perception of a robust closing of the year, signalling sustained economic growth despite prevailing uncertainties. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, surged impressively at 4.2% and demonstrated a resilient appetite for goods and services among households. This robust consumer activity underpinned the overall growth, suggesting a confident consumer base willing to spend. New orders for durable goods also grew by a substantial 3.1%, significantly surpassing the anticipated 2%. This unexpected surge signalled strong business investment and consumer confidence in future economic conditions. At the same time, initial jobless claims came out higher than expected, potentially hinting at some emerging softness in the labour market. However, the market pretty much ignored the figures, focusing on the more positive aspects of the GDP and Durable Goods reports. 'We don't think the report signals significant labour market deterioration', says Oren Klachkin, an economist at Nationwide. He offered a reassuring perspective that the increase in jobless claims was likely an anomaly rather than a harbinger of a broader trend. Overall, the market viewed yesterday's report as very bullish for the greenback, with DXY surging above the 107.000 level, putting downward pressure on XAUUSD. XAUUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Investors now focus on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due at 1:30 p.m. UTC today. The market expects PCE to remain at 0.3%. 'Any significant deviation from the estimated PCE data could trigger a negative reaction, based on concerns that the Fed (Federal Reserve) is less likely to lower interest rates', said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. 'Spot gold may break support at $2,867 per ounce and fall towards $2,835 to $2,847 range', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

GBPUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart GBPUSD retested the support level of 1.25800 👉General outlook GBPUSD has been trading in a bearish trend within the last day. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.25996. Set your Stop loss at 1.25600 below the previous low ($3.96 loss for 0.01 lot) and Take profit at 1.26392 ($3.96 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market. @octa_analytics

USDJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart USDJPY broke the resistance level of 150.150 👉General outlook USDJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 150.370. Set your Stop Loss at 149.860 below the previous low ($3.39 loss for 0.01 lot) and Take Profit at 150.880 ($3.39 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market. @octa_analytics