CobraVanguard

JUST IN: Over $9,710,000,000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past 2 weeks. $6.55 billion shorts $3.16 billion longs @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian President says "we do not want war." "It is in the interest of Iran, the region, and the world that Trump does not stir up chaos." @CobraVanguard 💵

68 - Greed $77,454 - current price @CobraVanguard 💵

LATEST: 🕯 Polymarket US hit $870M in weekly volume, up from $60M six months ago, closing fast on the offshore Polymarket's $1.2B, per Galaxy Research. @CobraVanguard 💵

📊 Week Ahead: RBNZ & BoC Decisions Meet US NFP as Markets Reprice Rate Paths The US Dollar staged a modest recovery this week as traders covered short positions following sticky US Core PCE data. However, broader structural dollar weakness persists. With Middle East peace hopes easing immediate energy shock concerns, market focus pivots sharply to high-impact central bank rate decisions from the RBNZ and BoC, key Chinese activity metrics, and Friday's pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. 🇺🇸1. United States (USD) & The NFP Test 🔹 Short-Covering Rebound: The Greenback stabilized following in-line to sticky July Core PCE numbers, which countered expectations of softer prints. Still, the broader outlook remains constrained: markets price just a 35% chance of a September Fed rate hike and only 40 bps of total tightening through the end of 2027. 🔹 Geopolitical Relief: Reports that the US and Iran are close to a formal ceasefire, coupled with resumed Iran-Oman talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz, have pulled crude oil down, flattening the Fed's implied rate trajectory. 🔹 Key Data Pipeline (Monday – Friday): 👀 ISM PMIs: August Manufacturing (Monday) and Services (Wednesday) will offer critical clues on economic resilience. Firm headline prints and stickiness in the Prices Charged sub-indices are required for the dollar to extend gains. 👀 Labor Market Precursors & NFP (Friday): Following July's shock loss of 23k jobs, private employment gauges (such as the 4-week ADP average) point to a rebound. A strong NFP beat on Friday would compel traders to bring forward their Fed rate-hike expectations. 🇳🇿2. New Zealand (NZD) & RBNZ Policy Decision 🔹 Policy Decision (Wednesday): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets after delivering its first post-2023 rate hike on July 8. 🔹 Hawkish Hike Base Case: Q2 CPI surged to 4.1% y/y (well above the RBNZ’s 3% upper target band), while the labor cost index ticked higher despite a rise in unemployment to 5.6%. 🔹 Kiwi Upside: A consecutive 25-bps rate hike is fully priced in for this meeting, with markets expecting an additional 75 bps in tightening by the end of 2027. If the RBNZ maintains its aggressive forward guidance, the monetary policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Fed will continue to propel the Kiwi higher. 🇨🇦3. Canada (CAD) & BoC Meeting 🔹 Rate Decision (Wednesday): The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week. While the BoC has maintained that current rates are sufficiently restrictive, markets are already pricing in approximately 75 bps of rate hikes across 2027. 🔹 Domestic Strength vs. Trade Headwinds: Canada's fundamental backdrop has improved—Q2 GDP beat expectations, July CPI hit the top of the 1–3% target band, and the economy added 75k jobs. 🔹 Loonie Dilemma: Despite solid domestic data, the Loonie remains pressured by stalled trade negotiations with the US and lower crude oil prices. To spark a sustainable CAD rally, Governor Macklem must explicitly keep the door open for future rate increases. Friday's domestic August jobs report will provide further guidance. 🇪🇺4. Eurozone (EUR) 🔹 Flash CPI Inflation (Tuesday): Eurozone preliminary August CPI will hit the wires. Markets currently price an ECB rate hike in September, with another 25-bps increase penciled in by February 2027. 🔹 Euro Trajectory: A headline inflation print holding near 3.0% (well above the 2% target) will solidify expectations for faster ECB policy tightening, providing fresh upside support for EUR/USD against the greenback. 🇨🇳🇦🇺5. China (CNY) & Australia (AUD) 🔹 Chinese Official PMIs (Monday): Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will offer an early look at Asian demand and global supply-chain momentum. 🔹 Australian Q2 GDP (Wednesday): Following recent upside surprises in Australian CPI, a resilient Chinese PMI print combined with strong Australian Q2 GDP data will fuel speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to deliver an additional rate hike before year-end.

🇯🇵🇺🇸 USDJPY reclaims the 160, its highest level since July 31 Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech is pushing US interest rate expectations higher, which pulls money into the dollar. @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇻🇪 President Trump says US entered "the biggest oil deal" in history with Venezuela that will double American oil reserves. @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $77,000 $200,000,000 longs liquidated from the crypto market in the past 60 minutes. @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month surge to 49%. @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 S&P 500 erases today's losses and turns green. @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says the 4 big meat processors are a "nasty Monopoly" that make life "miserable" for US farmers. @CobraVanguard💵

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says consumer spending remains healthy and labor markets are stable. @CobraVanguard 💵

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🚨 Breaking News Hormuz Ship Traffic Remains Heavily Suppressed Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily suppressed, with disruption continuing along a key global energy corridor. @CobraVanguard 💵

JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian President Putin sees the US as weakened by the Iran war, intelligence reports say. @CobraVanguard 💵

👀Horrifying video of a family trapped in massive floods in Nepal @CobraVanguard 💵

🇺🇸 US wages and salaries fall to just 43% of national income, the lowest since the Great Depression. @CobraVanguard 💵

BREAKING : 🚨🚨 OneKey Founder Says Team “Hacked” the Largest Hardware Wallet, Ledger OneKey founder Yishi said the OneKey Anzen team reproduced a transaction-replacement attack on Ledger Ethereum App 1.22.1 in the lab. @CobraVanguard 💵

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