AMADO'S CRYPTO GROUP

Everyone is focused on whether this was the bottom or not. In my opinion, that's the wrong approach. Anyone can throw out predictions about $50k, $40k, or whatever target they want. What really matters is risk management. What if we first move back to $68k? What if the bottom is already in? What's your Plan B? That's what I focus on in my VIP. Rather than trying to predict every move, I focus on managing different scenarios and having a clear strategy. Personally, I think a bottoming structure will be formed soon. That's why I haven't started my long-term investments yet. Not because I believe we must go lower, but because my invalidation hasn't been met. For me, that invalidation is a clean flip above the DEMA200. In the meantime I am already looking for new opportunities

And obviously we don’t have only winners :)

🇺🇸 US unemployment came in at 4.3%

In the meanwhile :) Unfortunately #TAO still not going as planned, thats the disadvantage of having more calls and I make the decision to share the wrong one

The bigger picture imo went flawless. We just didn’t see one more move up towards 84k, but other than than moving well with the analyses.

:)

75k broken and now 73k imo last short term support

All targets hit easy money, expecting even higher but obviously reward yourself

Invalidation is the same, below DEMA200 Imo trade is still risky but for me worth to try a scalpz Target 1 2,06 scalp Target 2 2,10 scalp Target 3 2,15 scalp Target 4 2,25 short term Target 5 2,40 swing

Slowly but surely I am starting to get a grip on the market, with this I mean with Trump lol.

One CME gal atm above CMP 78505-79120 and if price opens like this on Sunday, we will have another. So I am monitoring to see if we can try to make use of this with scalps.

Here it is

This week, the market's core focus was on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) newly released April FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes revealed that the Fed's policy stance has taken a distinctly hawkish turn, with most officials agreeing that if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, renewed rate hikes may be necessary. Notably, the meeting saw 4 dissenting votes against holding rates steady—the highest number since 1992—highlighting intensifying internal divisions. Exacerbated by the Iran war, which has led to a near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices are skyrocketing, and the disinflationary process is likely to be significantly delayed. The market has already begun pricing in tightening expectations before the end of the year. Meanwhile, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh officially took office on Friday. Caught between presidential pressure to cut rates and market expectations for hikes, how he balances the "AI productivity deflation" narrative with physical energy inflation will become the absolute core of market pricing moving forward.   Market headlines    FOMC Minutes Turn Completely Hawkish, Rate Hike Expectations Officially Priced In The April minutes shattered the market's last illusions of easing. Most officials not only wished to remove language hinting at rate cuts from the statement but also bluntly stated that if inflation remains red-hot, "further tightening might become appropriate." Currently, the interest rate futures market has priced in approximately 21 basis points of rate hikes before the end of the year, and the probability of another 25-basis-point hike in 2026 has surged. Against the backdrop of sticky inflation and strong employment data, the Fed's hawkish pivot has provided robust momentum for the U.S. dollar, further pressuring non-US currencies. Assets to watch: US Dollar Index (DXY), USD/JPY (USDJPY)   Strait of Hormuz Blockade Crisis: The Iran War Becomes Inflation's Biggest Nightmare Geopolitical shocks are having a material impact on the economic outlook. The Iran war has resulted in a near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, putting the energy supply chain at risk of severe disruption, driving up crude oil prices, and pushing US Treasury yields higher. Fed officials frankly admitted that this event will have a "significant impact" on overall inflation. The market now fears that the risk of inflation spiraling out of control far outweighs the risk of an economic slowdown, keeping the demand for safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets high.

One note, Everything looks cool in the market in the sense what we don’t see huge volatility which is good for alts. This can change in a blink of an eye. Remain cautious and make sure you have stoplosses. Because BTC is still not out of the woods short term wise. If we want to see 82k-84k again it needs to break above 78k asap, otherwise we could see 75k and lower imo