Trading Forex Coach

Meeting was in line with what I anticipated for the market trend before, during and after this meeting. Trend is all set for short and medium term as the view.

📈 FOMC Meeting Insights: The financial world's spotlight is on the FOMC's meeting today, and here's an in-depth look at what's unfolding: 1️⃣ Rate Pause: It's highly likely that we'll witness a rate pause, signifying that interest rates will probably remain in the 525-550 bps range until we reach November. 2️⃣ Dot Plots: Keep a close watch on those dot plots. They're more than just a formality; they reveal the perspectives of voting members. This time, I anticipate these dots will serve as a contingency plan for the next 40 days if challenges emerge, such as surging CPI, energy prices, services, and labor dynamics. While challenges are on the horizon, having a robust backup plan is always wise. It's important to note that the Dot Plots still indicate a hawkish outlook, with at least one more rate hike expected by the end of 2023, although it doesn't guarantee the Fed will enact this option. 3️⃣ "Higher for Longer": This phrase is gaining prominence and carries significant implications for the foreign exchange market. We're witnessing the strengthening of the USD, yield fluctuations, and volatility in the stock market. The prevailing theme is one of heightened uncertainty, especially regarding the potential for a soft landing. Notably, various sources, from Bloomberg's Soft Landing tracker to Oxford Economics, maintain skepticism about the soft landing scenario. Market Impact Before & After FOMC: 🔹 Rate Expectations: Currently, the market is pricing in a rate cut, but not in the immediate future; it's projected for sometime between May 2024 and June 2024. This reflects the ongoing sentiment of "Higher for Longer." This sentiment is creating ripples in both the stock and bond markets, fueling concerns about the broader economy, GDP growth, corporate performance, and the stability of the banking sector. Additionally, the recent surge in energy prices is reinforcing the USD's status as a safe-haven currency, contributing to stability in the Gold market. 🔹 USD Momentum: While the long-term strategy may involve shorting the USD due to the anticipated pivot in the Fed's tightening policy around May or June 2024, it's crucial not to overlook short-term upward momentum. Global liquidity concerns are driving up exchange rates. 🔹 Stock Market: High levels of uncertainty, combined with sustained high interest rates and the looming specter of a recession, present a challenging landscape for stocks. In the short term, a correction is expected, potentially revisiting the 4200-4300 range for the S&P 500. If a recession materializes by year-end, further declines could occur. However, hope is on the horizon in the form of a potential rate cut by the end of H1 2024, which might lay the foundation for a more stable 2024.

Hi everyone, today I provide my thought on Tradingview regarding The Fed vs. Market topic. If you are interested, please kindly drop by and give some support for the info over there with your likes and emojis. Thanks, and have a nice day. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/C9ATxf2a-Fed-v-s-Market-the-fight-may-last-for-a-while/

Hi everyone, it's Monday and still a holiday; however, this week is also a busy week with CPI and Retail sales. Looking back to NFP last week, the data printed in the median range as I provided and this is considered still high, not low like some people said. This shows the labor market is still hot and it's enough for another rate hike in May. So, some short-squeezed activities happened during Friday and today just because the market built up a position for dovish, not some hawkishness as in the last NFP. So it's easy to understand that short-squeezing happened and may continue before the CPI is revealed this week. I think the market will close its hawkish position in front of the CPI news and maintain neutral till Retail sales and currently, they have a tendency to build dovish positions whenever there are any signs of economic weakness. You can refer to my old chart of a couple of Fed fund futures vs Fed from a couple of days ago to explain why the USD is up today after the news. Actually, I also had a monthly live session, especially for NFP, three hours before the news to explain all economic indicators regarding the labor market. However, as it's in the local language so I usually do not tell us about those. During the session, I clearly explained how NFP will proceed and my long-term plans. By the way, good luck and happy trading with the mentioned views, you know what to do I guess. Show me your likes, and emojis to support. Thanks!

As it's a holiday tomorrow and most of the assets are closed to trade so you should complete any trades today as NFP releases tomorrow, and it may make a big gap on Monday. Just a gentle reminder. For NFP, the market is estimating a mean of 230-250k jobs added. The downside surprise is 190-200k, and the upside if it's bigger than 260k. No matter what the print is, employment is still hot but some data signal job market will turn in the coming months. This month is not really a pivotal number, as I guess.

The bank deposit outflow started since the Fed tightening cycle from March last year until now but got triggered more after the banking crisis a couple of weeks ago. Most of the deposit outflow ended up in the Money market fund assets, of which 80% are US T-bills, cash, or repos collateralized by government securities. This flee-to-safety trend triggered a buy in those government securities and pushed T-yields back in the last couple of weeks. Suppose this deposit-drain trend continues as the Fed keeps focusing on inflation and raising the terminal rate above 5% and keeps it till the year's end. In that case, there are risks for small and medium-sized banks that they will later have to correct their mistakes by aggressively easing the rate. However, in the short term, this downward repricing for treasury yields may continue for a while as long as the deposit-drain trend stops, and it supports gold for the time being, but I don't think this will last for long and Gold is going to correct itself till the end of the year. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/9yKyKYe4-Bank-outflow-vs-Money-Market-Fund-inflow/ I also posted my thoughts on Tradingview in case you want to share the support; you can give me some emojis and likes here and there. Cheers!

Hi everyone, just share some thoughts regarding to the FOMC's meeting last week: - Fed's rate hike with 0.25% as expected after considering 1% before the pre-bank-crisis events and 0% for post-events. It's more logical for me than any other option, as inflation is still high, the labor market is still hot, and the economy is still boosted with hyped capital goods from January through February. - The only things that make me feel confident are the tightening financial conditions at banks and other financial institutions. This showed a dramatic U-turn compared to before the banking crisis, and this is in line with what the Fed wishes for. - However, looking at the Fed Funds futures , we have some discrepancies between the median of Dot plot (a method of visually representing expectations of the future Fed Funds rate) and the Fed Funds futures . While Fed fund futures are implying a rate easing right in 2023 to around 4.25% and dot plots show expectation from the Fed to keep the rate after one more hike, as Powel said. - This gap of expectation between the Fed and the "market" out there shows the disbelief in the current situation of the economy in the next few months, especially after the banking crisis in the last 2 weeks. The crowd predicted that the economy would face such severe financial difficulties that the Fed would change its policy. So who's going to be right? Fed or the Market? Whatever side you choose, make your bets there. I also posted the thoughts on Tradingview (after a very long time), in case you want to share the supports, you can visit our old places over there. Cheers! https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/s2VbeOHy-Fed-vs-Market-Who-gonna-win/

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Hi everyone, sharing something different from out routine today as below:

Hi everyone, I returned from a business trip that lasted more than one week, but daily tasks and events dragged me away from my writing. We had such a 2-week banking event that things changed a lot. I want to avoid going through the credit crunch again in detail, as you guys can read everywhere. However, it's enough to change the views of the whole market from a sure-thing 0.5% rate hike back to a 0% rate hike and now back to a 0.25% one. We had two pieces of information, and they tell us that the labor market is still hot with new jobs added to 315k and the CPI is down, but the core CPI is still stubborn at 5.5%. Besides, growth is still so strong that it even signals a delay in the recession to Q3 instead of Q2. In short, I favor the chance of 0.25% rate hike provided that the Fed needs to see how the credit crunch develops (the U.S. Treasury arranged the UBS acquisition, not SNB) and look at an ECB rate hike of 0.5% during this time also gave a clue on how the Fed is favored of. However, the market is already positioned for this 0.25% rate hike so there is less room to trade in between. There is only chance that is tradable is when Fed made a surprising move with 0% (as I think it's just 10-15% chance even market still thinks it's 20% chance), but it would create a bigger movement from all assets (USD continues to down strongly in this case). Again, I still think the USD is making corrections back to some excellent level for medium-term holding. Just monitor some levels, such as 102.60 and 101.50, even better in case of a 0.25% rate hike if it's 0% rate hike, just short-set TP at those levels. For gold, it just cannot sustain the buying anymore around the critical resistance zone from 2000-2050. However, 1920 is a good place to rest and wait for any credit crunch to develop before resuming. It's long for today. Happy trading! Show me your emojis to support the channel, Thanks!

Hi everyone, It's Friday, and today is NFP day. I'm on a business trip during this time, so I just want to drop a few lines to look before and after the NFP. First, USD index rose and closed to the 106 level before making corrections before the NFP. The current situation of Fed changed a lot with the prospect of further away from "soft" and "hard" landing, but facing "never landing" time ahead due to high inflation, tight unemployment, and the economy being still on its growth. That comes to the latest hawkishness so far from Powell's talks as I can expect a bit ahead. That's why the current NFP on Friday and inflation data on next Tuesday are very important before the rate hike decision. The 0.5% rate hike is in the table, as I said last time even before that 2 information yet. The market is pricing in a 63% increase for a 0.5% rate hike which keeps USD continuing to stay strong compared to other currencies. However, also bear in mind that, the correction of USD is quite extended, and a sideways mode is also expected unless it has a significant downward correction. Coming back to the NFP today, what can we expect from the news alone? I think the data would take a big correction compared to last month's data with 517k jobs created. This time it may come in half of that number but stay around 220-235k and it will keep maintaining a hawkish tone with this number. Any surprising number that should be below 150k can be considered an initial good sign for the Fed and may ease the prospect of hawkishness. So, the market may make a correction after the print when they see the job creation number dropped compared to last month, but they forget it's still high (for example, if it's >220-235k) and then correct itself after the news for a while. The surprising case is when we get a surprising number that is >150k, and then you can short USD just in this case until next Tuesday before the CPI data. Happy trading! Show me your emojis to support the channel, Thanks!

Hello everyone, it's Monday, and it's been two weeks since the last update, and everything remains the same to me. I meant the view is still intact, and what we have is some updated hot data, but those data were already known in advance. The surprises to the upward CPI, followed by core PCE yesterday, while the meeting minutes showed hawkishness in tapering inflation, and 2 non-voting members even suggested a 0.5% rate hike in March. Remember that the meeting took place more than 3 weeks ago, and at that time, we didn't have a surprising CPI, PCE, a hot labor market, or strong consumer confidence and spending yet. Now that we have all of those "surprises," the USD is rising and will continue to rise until the 20th and 21st of March, as well as two core data releases before the next meetings. Stocks have dropped 5% since the last meeting. The current consensus is that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.5% at its next meeting. It's all depending on the next two core data points before the meeting. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 0.25% and keep the possibility of two more hikes open. These prospects are enough to keep the USD strong for the time being while we await the facts. Happy trading! Show me your emojis to support the channel, Thanks!

Hi everyone, it's Monday, and there will be CPI news tomorrow. I am going to have another talk show this week about the financial market in 2023, so I am again on a tight schedule for the week to keep us posted frequently. However, we are still on track with market movement and have not missed any important events so far. Since my call, the dollar has been pushed higher, and the market is now waiting for CPI tomorrow. What did we have before the CPI? We have a tight labor market in January, and that absorbs some sort of price surge in some categories, such as services. We have nice consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for February, and this shows that there are some mixed feelings; however, people believe in the future. Those things gave us not just a feeling but some clues that inflation still needs to be focused on by the Fed and that things in being priced differently. As a result, this is the risk, and the CPI news provided volatility (mean retail risk). SPY S&P 500 ETF hedged option betting on 10% volatility ahead within 1 month is increasing and will reach a peak soon, indicating that volatility is increasing, and this is another definition of risk. When I say "volatility" and refer to stocks, this means downward expectation. So I expect risky assets to continue to get sold off after the CPI news, as we expect inflation will hold (not fall like it has the last few months) this time and make no surprises like the NFP. If not, safety assets will make some corrections; however, this does not change any aspects of the fact that we may enter a recession soon in the next few months, and smart money will position for that (actually, they already are, and they are hedging short-term downside risk by using options and ETF). Happy trading.

Hi everyone, It's Thursday, and I just returned from a business trip and I participated in a forum where I joined as a panelist with a lot of financial and economic experts in my region. We talked about the economy in 2023, both globally and locally. Anyway, coming back to current situation after the very good NFP, I thought there was a delay in recession for the U.S. due to the tight labor market shown in January, but a part of that needs to be seasonal adjusted. Unemployment claims are up today, and now things are starting to reflect in the data, even though it's lagging a bit. In short, no matter what, just position yourself; the recession will definitely come, so grab some safety assets when data first shows a drop in GDP for Q1/2023. The pros will wait for the rally to sell and distribute to retail traders, then buy back at a lower price and begin accumulating for 2024, 2025 ++. I will disclose more later, when it's time to do so. Happy trading.

517k super bad for Fed —> USD up

Hi everyone, it's Friday, and the Non-farm payroll is today. A quick update on some important news so you can get a feel for the mood before and after the NFP. First, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% yesterday, as expected, and the Fed's tone is neutral, even though Powell wanted to emphasize inflation but did not convince the market enough, and they still believe rates will fall by the end of the year. It is visible in the US stock market and some risky assets. However, the excitement faded as people remembered that there was an NFP today and that they are expecting a light drop in NFP to under 200k jobs, indicating that the labor market remains tight and that the USD is speculatively moving upward after the news. So, in summary, if data prints below 200k but not so far from 200k, USD is down at first but rising later, and this may continue after 1.5 hours as PMI data is released. If the headlines are so weak and well below 150k, risky assets are boosted even more, and the USD falls until the PMI comes out later, which may help to recover some losses. Happy trading!

Hi all, it's Tuesday, and in the next 25 hours, we're going to have Fed Funds Rate news. I've returned from a long vacation; however, I'm focusing on completing outstanding tasks and am so swamped with work this and next month that I'm barely getting anything else done. I did a Podcast today with a topic about the U.S. layoffs and the current labor market situation (it's in the local language, so there are no points to share here). I also have a local live NFP session this Friday and some conferences next week. A lot of topics are to be delivered to communities during this time. Those things will shape what we invest in this year and when. Again, if you are only interested in trading in the short term, simply follow technical charts to define trends, and key levels and manage the daily economic calendar, and you will be fine. By the way, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates to 0.25% tomorrow, and the USD has benefited from its oversold condition this week, so there is some room for a surprise from the Fed during the speech, whether it maintains its aggressive tone or adopts a much softer one. Looking ahead, we will be visiting other central banks this week, so if the USD is on a good rally, be cautious about selling if there is no evidence that the Fed will remain aggressive. The risky market can take chances to rally as much as it can before Q2 as the unemployment rate starts increasing and inflation may show its stubbornness more clearly than now. In short, I anticipate that Q2 will be better for positioning for longer-term trade than Q1, as noise levels will be lower and things will be clearer. If stocks are on the rise, wait for the dip, the same is true for other risky assets. However, if you do so in the very short term, simply follow the flow, but remember to return immediately when data changes. Happy trading!

Hi all, it's Friday. I have nothing to report today because the market has done nothing noteworthy, at least to me on the H4 and D1 charts, so maybe it's still a daily battle for someone with minute charts. Actually, I travel to my parent's house just to have holidays with them during the Lunar New Year. However, I'm not sure if the current content is useful to most of you or if it's just for a few investors and has nothing to do with your day-to-day speculating and you prefer charts or ideas to trade along with day-in and day-out. When I have more capacity, then I would like to cover more, but as the current workload is quite intense, I just want to provide the right thinking first for this channel. Without these essentials, you will not be able to advance in the investment world and will simply make noise until you quit or lose a lot of money in order to no longer be able to follow it. I want to provide a lot of help ahead, but I'm also on my way to accumulating more knowledge and top-notch experiences at top-notch financial institutions, so why are we impatient when approaching the financial world? It's not easy for everyone, just be calm, work hard, spend wise time following things to help you track the market properly, and do long-term investments, along with short-term ones if you still have time for those. It's just some of my two cents before the New Year 2023, and I wish all of you had very wise choices ahead. I am just sure that I am still in this financial market for a very long haul ahead, the last 16 years are just the beginning.

Hi everyone! Today is Wednesday, and we have retail sales news that is disappointing (more than expected) with a -1.1% drop last month. This just simply means that, as is too obvious, people cannot keep spending forever until they get laid off or their savings is zero and their credit card rate is much higher. What do we do during that time? Don't buy new clothes just because you're having a bad day and need to spend money on something that isn't really necessary. So that's exactly what's popular. Retail sales are down for the second month. What effect does this have on the market? People are afraid of anything that contradicts their incorrect beliefs because these things contribute to GDP (fewer transactions, lower GDP), and GDP is a sensitive topic right now, especially after the market is having a short-term party due to a downward trend in inflation. So, in summary, the price action is clear these days, with risk following inflation news and risk off following retail news. How do trade? If you've been following me for a while, you'll notice that some risky assets are at key resistance levels and appear to be losing momentum to have a decisive breakout (while waiting for some news). If the news can be predicted more or less like these retail sales, then go ahead with any technical signals you may have in this world. However, that trading is short-term, as I remind you, and please keep in mind it's speculating, not investing. If you seriously invest and need to wait for the recession to come in Q2 or Q3, then you have a better price to DCA till things are over next year. Again, most of us are speculators and who care about investing? (I and a few others here do). So in this case (as speculators), trade things down as you fade the trend but consider it just as a correction before the Fed rate in Feb.