CA Final Notes

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The Famous Story of The California Gold Rush : John Stutter left everything and moved to California in 1839. He was from Switzerland. California (America) was a land with few people living on it. John had 50,000 acres of land which he wanted to build into his agricultural empire. In 1948, he hired a carpenter named James Marshall. James started work on a water mill. A water mill uses the flow of water – from a stream or river – to turn a wheel. This turning wheel can then be used to power something. It was used to cut big pieces of wood, to make flour, and so on. On Jan 24, 1948, the workers dug out the ground to make way for the structure. James noticed that there were a few shiny objects in the mud they dug out. He bent and looked closely. It looked like gold. James rushed to John Stutter to tell him. John confirmed with an expert – it was gold. John Stutter struck a deal with his carpenter, James Marshall. They would keep this discovery a secret. Both of them would grow rich mining gold from the site. Unfortunately for them, there were other people working at the site. The secret spread. The word “spread” is an understatement. It reached across America and even the world. The California Gold Rush In 1948, the total number of immigrants in all of California was just 1,000 people. 2 years later, this number went up to 1 lakh. Another 2 years later, it went to 3 lakh people. People from all over America quit their jobs, left their daily lives, and made the difficult journey to reach California. To dig for gold. At first, it was just Americans. But later, as the word spread, people from over 25 countries moved to California. Many caught horrible diseases. Many got robbed. Many died. Crime was common. The ones who reached searched around Stutter’s mill desperately looking for gold. Later, the search expanded into newer areas of California. Stutter and Marshall failed to make money out of this gold frenzy. Stutter’s land was overrun by miners who dug in search of gold. He spent money trying to defend his own land but was unsuccessful. Some miners struck gold – literally. There are people who earned millions of dollars in weeks (in today’s money). This is what everyone dreamt of. To strike gold and get rich – forever. Many others didn’t. This was the largest migration in American history. It was called the California Gold Rush. Asymmetric Bets Question: why did they all decide to give up their jobs/lives and move far away to a distant state? When they heard gold was “discovered”, their assumption was that there was a lot of gold. And a lot of gold means a lot of money. People did a rough calculation in their heads. How much can I gain? And, how many can I lose? The answer was: How much can I gain? – Lots. So much that they never have to work ever again. How many can I lose? – Not much. I already have so little. They were taking an asymmetric bet. A lot can be gained, but not much can be lost.  It’s like, you tossing a coin: heads you lose Rs 10, tails you win Rs 100. Some of the biggest successes in the world are the results of asymmetric bets. Bill Gates started a business. -The most he could lose: whatever he had then. -The most he could gain: billions (which was much more than he had). Education itself is an asymmetric bet. -You don’t lose much educating yourself. -But the gains you could make are multi-fold. Investment – be it your money, time, or effort – should ideally be towards asymmetric bets. Mind you, there are negative asymmetric bets — where you don’t gain much but can lose a lot. One of the easiest examples is rash driving: you might save some time. But if something goes wrong, you could meet with an accident. These are the bets that should be avoided. Story continue.....

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