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إظهار المزيد1 555
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Some takeaway from investor briefing todae aftermarket
Factchecks
CGSI: TOP GLOVE ZOOM CALL NOTES 15 May 2024
Re: US increasing Tariffs on Chinese gloves from 7.5% to 25% in 2026 …
* US accounts for 17% of TOPG sales vol which is lower than pre-pandemic level of 25%. Lower now due to (i) impact from US CBP ban earlier, still takes time for US orders to come back even tho ban has been lifted (ii) oversupply situation which leads to excess stock (iii) replacement from Chinese players
* Breakdown of market share pre-pandemic: Msia 60-65%, China 15%, Thai 15%
* Breakdown of market share post-pandemic: Msia 50% range, China 30%
* Tariffs on Msia gloves export into US: 3% for non-medical; 0% for medical
* Previously Msian glovemakers lost significant market share due to pricing but recently the pricing gap between Msian & Chinese players is getting slimmer
* Unlikely for Chinese players to continue selling at low price anymore as most of them are loss-making with such strategy to gain market share. Also unlikely for Chinese players to absorb the tariff. INTCO is the only player that showed good profits in 1Q
* Turkey recently imposed high tariffs on medical nitrile gloves from China at 15% (0% tariff for gloves from Msia)
* Tariffs in EU is the same for Msia, Thai, China at around 2-3%. Zero tariff from Vietnam
* Will be challenging for Chinese players to set up plants outside of China as (i) they enjoy certain tax subsides from Chinese gov currently (ii) it will be difficult to manage foreign workers instead of local Chinese workers
* ASP differential between Msian & Chinese players @ <5%. Difference of 50sen to 1 dollar
* ASP for Chinese players: Nitrile prices @ USD16-17. Natural rubber powder-fee prices @ USD21-22. Powder glove prices @ USD14-15
TOPG Ops Metrics
* TOPG was selling below fixed costs back in 2022-2023 period therefore was loss making. Things has changed in the past few quarters therefore currently looking at selling above full costs
* Overall seeing improvement in the market in terms of pricing but EBITDA margin wise, TOPG will be able to achieve close to half of 2019 levels
* Utilization rates has reduced significantly comparing 2024 to 2019 periods. Current UR stands at 50% (avg of both natural rubber & nitrile gloves). Nitrile UR is higher at close to 80% based on TOPG’s running factories
* Running capacity is 60bil currently
* TOPG has been seeing demand flowing in even before ytd’s official anc from US, for both nitrile and natural rubber gloves
* Expecting 20-30% sales vol growth in 2025 & continue in 2026. Assuming quarterly growth of around 10%, TOPG is expecting 2026 volume to be similar to 2019’s volume
* GP margin @ 5-10% range. Some peers have higher margin due to higher utilization
* Plans to reopen some factories, should have all factories back in operations by next year. Will take 2-3M to reopen a factory, and 6M for installation of production lines
* No need to switch natural rubber production lines into nitrile lines as demand for natural rubber is coming in as well
* By 2026, TOPG can run most factories. Expecting 70-80% UR with reopened factories
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Today, many whatapps wechat and telegram group suddenly revived. Bombing texts everywhere
Long lost missing in action aunty uncles yi ma gu jie semua balik, happy texting nonstop 😂
Revival Revival
Happy for everyone especially if one can get out of the MCO hotel rooms 🙏🏼🙏🏼
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BABA dipped on earnings , gapped down to support level , but it doesn't affect hsi
how cool is it, index carried by diff diff sectors
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